This report under the “Climate change modelling information” series presents recent developments reported by key international climate modelling institutions and journals. This issue sets a particular emphasis on climate change and health, in addition to the regular sections on Nationally Determined Contributions, and Mid-century strategies. The topic of health and climate change is of growing importance as climate changes is directly contributing to humanitarian emergencies, such as heatwaves, floods, storms and there are non-negligible costs related to direct damages to health. Moreover, climate change is impacting health in many other ways, including the disruption of food systems, the increase in zoonoses and food-, water- and vector-borne diseases, as well as with mental health issues. Climate-sensitive health risks are disproportionally felt by the most vulnerable and disadvantaged.

The first section of the report features initial results from studies related to climate change and health, a topic that saw a growing interest also testified by the attendance to the second CCMI webinar organised on 21 November 2023 titled ‘Climate change and health impacts’. A study in China assessed the additional health expenditure associated to days of extreme heat in the country due to climate change. In Italy, researchers assessed the benefits of European policies related to climate change and air quality, while, similarly, in the United Kingdom researchers assessed the co-benefits of decarbonisation strategies, focusing on air quality and public health. In Switzerland, a research group analysed the influence of climate changes in lakes, affecting the transport of waterborne viruses.

Various developments linked to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are reported in the second section. A research team across international institutions assessed how existing national plans and policies contribute to the global goal of the Paris Agreement.  Another consortium of international partners evaluated the progress of implementing the climate goals of the Paris Agreement, analysing the implementation gap towards their achievement. In Mexico, researchers explored the possibility of the power system to comply with the country’s NDC commitments. 

In the third section, the report features research linked to mid-century strategies. A study led by the United Kingdom analysed tipping points in the Earth system and society. In China researchers assessed the rebound effect in the power sector in the country under the carbon trading scheme. Additionally, the third section features the latest report by the European Commission providing an outlook on climate and energy for the year 2023.