This report under the “Climate change modelling information” series presents recent developments reported by key international climate modelling institutions. This issue sets a particular emphasis on loss and damage and adaptation strategies, in addition to the regular sections on Nationally Determined Contributions, and Mid-century strategies. Loss and damage and adaptation strategies are a fundamental topic when looking at climate change. It is important to assess and quantify the adverse impacts caused by the effects of climate change that are beyond the ability of affected communities or ecosystems to adapt and cope. At the same time, it is important to assess and implement the best adaptation strategies to minimise the negative impacts of climate change on human societies, ecosystems and economies, to help them adjust to the changing climate conditions and build resilience to withstand the associated impacts. Modelling aspects related to loss and damages and adaptation strategies is crucial for informed decision making, efficient resource allocation and formulating effective adaptation policies to address the impacts of climate change at local, national and international level.

The first section of the report features different studies on modelling loss and damage and adaptation strategies linked to climate change. Research conducted in Greece assesses the future flood risks and economic losses from sea-level rise and episodic sea-level extremes of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) worldwide, emphasizing the critical need for investments in adaptation and sustainable development in these States. Another research conducted by the Joint Research Center (JRC) in Italy explores various floods adaptation strategies in Europe, assessing the cost and benefits associated with different adaptation options. Another research from France, assess crops yield change under climate change and adaptation, showing that adaptation could alleviate projected losses.

The second section features a number of modelling developments linked to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). A study from Japan attempts to provide a stateof-the-art assessment of the future of coal transitions under alternative Indian energy system transformation pathways up to 2050, another one from China compare and analyse mitigation ambitions of countries updated NDCs, including equity and economic aspects. In the Netherlands, the New Climate Institute analyses countries emissions of major emitters, indicating that global ambition is still lacking to achieve the Paris Agreement; the new NDCs submission could be an opportunity to align with these targets.

The third section of the report is dedicated to modelling research linked to mid-century strategies. A study in Australia offers a method to easily track and compare different fossil fuels producers against climate goals, suggesting that if the companies continued their average growth rate trends, they would exceed their cumulative production budgets for coal, oil and gas by 2050. Another study from the United Kingdom, analyses if Brazil’s existing and expected national policies would allow to meet its net-zero pledge, highlighting that ecosystem protection would be the most cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil. Lastly, research in China, explores operational decarbonisation for residential buildings in China and the United States providing benchmarks for buildings' carbon neutrality.