Section 1 - Land use

The first section of the report is dedicated to modelling developments linked to land use, land use change, and forestry. Land use plays an important role in global cycles of greenhouse gases (GHG), and therefore it can result in emissions or removal of GHG from the atmosphere, therefore land use changes can either help or hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts. Recent studies highlight the importance of taking into account land use change when developing new policies. Researchers from Iran have modelled the impacts of both climate and land use change on water security in a semi-arid forested watershed in northern Iran. A study from Pakistan highlights the importance of considering the combined effect of land use and climate change together, focusing on the impact of the two on biodiversity, considering eight different land use and land cover scenarios. A research team from Germany studies the driving forces of the dynamics of land use and land cover on the past to predict future ones to support rational use of agricultural land and to well manage forest conversion needs. Another research paper from Germany quantifies the effects of land use and model scale on water partitioning and water edges, using tracer-aided ecohydrological models. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, carried out a study that focuses on the relations between land-based climate change mitigation and its potential to achieve SDGs. Researchers find that achieving SDGs delivers synergies with GHG abatement and may even, without additional mitigation policies, allow to realise up to 25% of the expected GHG abatement from land use required to stay on track with the 1.5 °C target until 2050.

Section 2 - Nationally Determined Contributions

The second section focuses on research linked to the development and implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). A study assesses the impacts of different carbon tax policies in China using eight different models, showing that the 2030 NDC target for China is easily met in all models but the 2060 carbon neutrality goal is hard to be achieved even with highest carbon tax rates. Another study in Costa Rica, uses a tailored TIMES model, to assesses climate mitigation pathways to reach the goal set in Costa Rica's NDC. The study is unique in that it involved local experts in the development. A study from Germany assesses the potential gains of inter-regional cooperation in CO2 markets and finds that such cooperation lowers the global costs incurred from achieving NDCs.

Section 3 - Mid-century strategies

In the third section, the report features research linked to mid-century strategies. Many studies analyse the NDCs and net zero emission targets alignment with the Paris Agreement. In the European Union, the Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2021 report finds that while current policies may lead to climate change exceeding 3°C, the implied temperature change from announced targets would amount to about 1.8°C by 2100. A similar study was done by The New Climate Institute for the 30 major economiesfinds that GHG emissions trends are far from the Paris Agreement goal;emissions in the 30 economies as a group will increase on average by approximately 0.4% in the period 2020 – 2030. Another study published in Nature, finds that current pledges, if fully implemented, could reduce the temperature by around 0.8–0.9 °C by 2100. And finally, a study in Zimbabwe, conceives a sustainable development scenario and a rapid growth pathway, that include adaptation strategies, and successfully engages stakeholders.