Recent modelling developments and studies
date: 16/09/2020
- A research team across Beihang University, Peking University, the Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control, and Duke University has published an article on the health and economic benefits of China’s greenhouse gas mitigation by 2050. The study combines the GAINS (Global Air Pollution Information and Simulation model) model from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the CAM-Chem (a global chemistry-climate model), and the IMED/HEL (Integrated Model of Economy, Energy and Environment for Sustainable Development/Health impact assessment) from Peking University to estimate the co-benefits on global health and economy from air quality improvements resulting from different climate policies in China. The results show that China’s mitigation has significant impact on both air quality and health improvement in eastern China and eastern Asia, and less impact in the rest of Asia. The improved air quality could avoid 0.37 million premature deaths due to ambient PM2.5 exposure by 2050s globally, with the majority happening in China. The research teams uses a willingness to pay methodology to estimate the economic benefits from the improved air quality, and find that the reduced ambient PM2.5 concentration could avoid $406 billion and $1,206 billion economic costs by 2030s and 2050s globally, with China the largest fraction of 98.5% ($400 billion) and 99.5% ($1,200 billion) respectively. The reduced ambient PM2.5 exposure can also avoid 11.3 million cases morbidity globally by 2050s, due to asthma attacks and hospital admissions. The study shows that most of the economic benefits from air quality improvement due to China’s mitigation accrue in China, followed by eastern Asia (such as South Korea and Japan) and the rest of Asia. Health improvement is the main fraction of the potential benefits, such as saving health expenditure, increasing the work time. The article is available online in Environmental Research Letters.
- A recent journal article from TNO in the Netherlands analyses how Madagascar’s nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement can be implemented in both the energy and non-energy sectors. Madagascar could reach its 14% GHG emission reduction target relative to 2030 business-as-usual levels through the land use sector only. However, given the potential higher mitigation costs in land use and its links with the energy system, overlooking mitigation options in the energy sector could be a missed opportunity to exploit abundant domestic low-carbon energy resources. The authors use the integrated assessment model TIAM-ECN, and they have updated and adjusted relevant input data and the simulated structure of AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land use) to better reflect the reality on the ground in Madagascar, which is the focus of the assessment. The research project has substantially improved the representation and data input of non-energy GHG emissions and abatement options, as well as their respective potentials. The article is available online in Climate Policy.
- Researchers at COPPE UFRJ in Brazil have further developed the TEA model. Improvements of the model include more carbon revenue recycling schemes, comprising direct and indirect methods. Carbon revenues can now be recycled through lump-sum transfers to households and/or through rebates on labour taxes or sales taxes. In addition, carbon revenues can be kept under the public budget and without revenue recycling. An increasing number of low and middle-income countries are looking at carbon pricing as part of their overall climate and energy policy mix. Carbon pricing has considerable effects on households, and therefore the topic is particularly relevant for policy makers in addressing their distributional effects on households. The research is currently under review.