Other modelling developments
date: 12/03/2020
- A team of researchers from Japan, China and the Republic of Korea estimate the air quality co-benefits from climate mitigation for human health in the Republic of Korea in a forthcoming article in Environment International journal. The authors integrate the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE), the Community Multiscale Air Quality modelling system CMAQ, and a health impact assessment model to assess not only the cost of climate change mitigation efforts but also their co-benefits. The health impact estimates were then combined with the Integrated Model of Energy, Environment, and Economy for Sustainable Development/Computable General Equilibrium (IMED/CGE). The results show that climate change mitigation action leads to substantial health gains, and that the benefits of these health gains and improved air quality can offset the total cost of climate mitigation in South Korea. This is one of the first studies to quantify the health-co benefits of climate mitigation for Korea which faces air quality issues.
- In a recent article in Nature Climate Change, a research team from Australia compare two climate modelling methods: transient climate and equilibrium climate. Through climate model simulations the authors show that for a given global temperature, land areas are significantly warmer in a rapidly warming case (i.e. transient climate modelling) than in a gradually warming case (equilibrium climate modelling). The probability of very warm seasons is at least two times greater for some poorer land regions. Most emissions and climate change targets are estimated using equilibrium climate models and hide these regional differences and may underestimate the rates of increase of global-average temperatures. The study finds that for climate change policies to be effective, they need to take into account the differences between these two modelling techniques.
- NAVIGATE – Next generation of Advanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climate policy making – is a new project hosted by the European Institute on Economics and the Environment funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme. The project aims to improve the capability of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to inform the design and evaluation of climate policies. The modelling group will focus on two areas: 1) describing transformative change in the economy, in technology and in consumer goods and services, and 2) describing distributional impacts of climate change and climate policy. No published results are available yet. The NAVIGATE project will also host a webinar series for scientists and experts to share the knowledge from the project.
- A number of methodological advances were presented and discussed at the 12th IAMC meeting in Tsukuba, Japan in December 2019. A number of papers highlighted the improved representation of different technologies in IAMs (e.g. land-use technologies, bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, etc.). Other papers highlighted the need for IAMs to be combined with other analysis tools (e.g. life-cycle assessment models (LCA), models that link to air pollution, etc.). Integration of models is key to better model the interrelationship between sectors and assess pathways that meet multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A key message from the presentations was the need for model intercomparison that would ensure transparency of assumptions and help better understand the different outcomes estimated by different models.