CLIMA - Modelling developments linked to implementation of mid-century strategies

Using an hourly electricity dispatch and capacity investment model, EleMod, researchers in the U.S. investigate the potential role of nuclear power in the decarbonisation of the U.S. electricity sector. They find that, with low electricity generation costs of nuclear, advanced nuclear power can contribute, together with solar and wind, to achieving the 90% CO2 emission reduction target by reducing the carbon price. A study assessing Japan’s mid-century emission pathways is the first to integrate global and national models to show that additional mitigation action beyond the NDC is necessary to achieve the low-carbon budget scenario after 2030. The Center for International Forestry Research in Germany is developing a nature-based solutions framework to inform the Green Climate Fund’s strategic section.

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Climate change modelling Climate mitigation

date: 12/03/2020

Researchers at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change have recently published a paper investigating the potential role of nuclear power in the decarbonisation of the U.S. electricity sector. In the context of falling costs and improved technology of renewable energy sources, the research team challenges the assumption that even a small increase in carbon price would push the energy mix balance towards renewables and away from natural gas and nuclear. They further develop the hourly electricity dispatch and capacity investment model, EleMod, which goes beyond the levelized costs of each energy source and evaluates how hourly patterns of electricity demand and intermittent supply match up across the United States. The model also includes transmission options to shift electricity from high supply to high demand regions. The paper models scenarios for electricity generation from 2016 to 2050 for all regions of the U.S. and for different energy sources. The results show that to reach deep decarbonisation in the U.S., it will require a substantial carbon price, and that even with modest reductions in the cost of nuclear energy, the needed carbon price can be reduced by 2/3 with the availability of nuclear.
An article in the journal of Climactic Change assess Japan’s mid-century low-emission pathways using national and global integrated assessment models. The researchers link both near-term policies and long-term CO₂ budgets scenarios from seven global and two national IAMs into a common scenario framework, something that has not been done until now. The results show that Japan’s NDC policies are consistent with the assessed high-budget scenarios, and therefore the country is on track. However, the results also show that the mitigation effort for the low-budget scenarios would be insufficient without additional mitigation action beyond the NDC after 2030. The article – together with the study on EU decarbonisation pathways below - is part of a special 2019 issue on “National Low-Carbon Development Pathways.”
At the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) in Germany, researchers are developing a new Nature-Based Solutions Framework (NBSF) that directly informs the Green Climate Fund's (GCF) strategic actions. The aim of the project is to demonstrate how nature-based solutions can support the GCF paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development. The new model will project physical climate parameters and land use patterns across four sectors (land use, forests, ecosystems and ecosystem services) to develop sectoral guidance supporting the use of the GCF. The sectoral guidance, informed by a desk-based meta-analysis and consultations across ten themes[1], will support country-driven processes for national programming, enhance climate ambition, and guide GCF stakeholders to develop transformative project and programme pipelines. This work illustrates current efforts to consider trade-offs and synergies between climate and land use (and other themes[2]) to guide investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. Concrete actions that need to be taken by the GCF stakeholders to achieve the Strategic Goals for 2025, 2030 and 2050 will be proposed. The results of the project will be available in late 2020.
The ENERGYBAL-GEM-2050 model has been updated to include new available data, more feedbacks with sectoral models, and a new transport sectoral model. The work has been done by the Center for Energy Efficiency (CENEf-XXI) in Moscow, and the updated model was used to develop Russia’s long-term low carbon strategy to 2050. No new articles have been published yet, but some results using an older model specification to estimate energy efficiency of buildings are available online in the journal of Problems of Economic Transition.
[1] The ten themes are trends and drivers, NDCs, REDD+, carbon markets, non-carbon benefits, how to assess ecosystem services, climate investment and finance, the role of the private sector, rights, which factors are promoting true paradigm shift.

[2] The ten themes are trends and drivers, NDCs, REDD+, carbon markets, non-carbon benefits, how to assess ecosystem services, climate investment and finance, the role of the private sector, rights, which factors are promoting true paradigm shift.