Modelling developments linked to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
date: 25/06/2019
- At the European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), the research team behind the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH) model is working on new features and applications of the model and developing new datasets. The WITCH model has recently been applied to the implementation of the NDCs taking into account the latest developments reported at COP24. The model has also been improved to: (1) better integrate air pollution and water usage in order to better understand the link between climate and other SDGs; and (2) improve its sectoral coverage, notably by improving the model’s description of the building sector, which would allow to better assess policies including those aiming to change behaviours.
These updates led to different publications. For example, a recent article on the food security implications of climate change mitigation shows that poorly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger. In another article, researchers compared different effort-sharing approaches (e.g. equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay) for calculating national carbon budgets and emission pathways with the cost-optimal approach. Their analysis shows that some approaches lead to extreme outcomes in terms of division of the global carbon budget across countries. While the outcomes of the approaches should not be regarded as top-down calculated targets and budgets for countries, they should inform the discussions on ratcheting-up of mitigation efforts according to the authors. - At the Institute of Environment and Economy (IoEE) at Peking University, a team of researchers is analysing the health and economic impact of air pollution control in China. The results of their research include:
- In their recent article in Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering researchers presented the modelling of the impacts of economic restructuring and technology upgrade on air quality and human health. They use a comprehensive model framework integrating an air pollutant emissions projection model (GAINS-China), an air quality model (GEOS-CHEM), and the health IMED/HEL model to analyse the impact of various policies on air pollution and health effects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China. The model establishes a data interface between economic input/output data and the emissions inventory of atmospheric pollutants in the BTH region. The researchers construct and test several scenarios to analyse the effectiveness of policy pathways in improving air quality. The results show that the policy pathway of industrial technology upgrading (i.e. reducing the emissions intensity of industries) can be effective, while the pathway of industrial structure adjustment (i.e. adjusting the proportion of industrial value-added) shows mixed effectiveness. Furthermore, they find that the analysed policy pathways will be efficient in reducing pollution of primary pollutants and fine particles, but not ambient ozone pollution. As ozone pollution is projected to increase in the BTH region, it will require additional mitigation strategies.
- In another article in Environment International, the researchers from Peking University compare the health and economic impacts of PM2.5 and ozone pollution at the provincial level in China. The study compares the PM2.5 and ozone pollution-related health impacts based on an integrated approach. The research framework combines an air pollutant emissions projection model (GAINS), an air quality model (GEOS-Chem), a health model using the latest exposure-response functions, medical prices and value of statistical life (VSL), a general equilibrium model (IMED/CGE), and a health model (IMED/HEL). The results show that at the national level the health and economic impacts from ozone pollution are much smaller than the impacts from PM2.5 pollution except for per capita morbidity and expenditure. However, at the province level there is an unequal geographic distribution of the health impact and economic burdens of PM2.5 and ozone pollution. Eastern provinces in China suffer greater health damage and economic loss related to PM2.5, while western provinces are more affected by ozone pollution. The economic and health impact of ozone pollution is also much more difficult to mitigate.