Other modelling developments
date: 25/06/2019
- Modellers from the Peking University have applied the Integrated Model of Energy, Environment and Economy for Sustainable Development (IMED) Model in a study seeking to assess the potential economic and CO2 emission impacts of export restructuring under various export structure patterns and climate policy scenarios. In the context of the ongoing trade war between China and the US, sectoral adjustment for China’s export appears to be vital to transform the Chinese economic structure. With this background, researchers analysed if restructuring exports away from low-value products towards higher, added value, products (following the approach taken by Japan, Germany and US) could affect China and the world economy, as well as carbon emissions.
The study results show that China’s export restructuring from low to high-quality products is beneficial both in terms of boosting China’s Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and consumption in 2030 under all the non-climate policy scenarios, although the export volume will decrease. In the same time, it is calculated that CO2 emissions per GDP and total employment will both decrease under all the scenarios. Furthermore, findings suggest that the transport equipment sector will gain in terms of output, employment and CO2 emissions by contrast to the textile sector. Overall, results suggest that encouraging export of service, transport equipment and reducing export of textile would be effective for China’s economic development and CO2 emission reduction. (China)
- The Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy of Tsinghua University, has recently published an article exploring the possible transitions of industry sector under 2°C target applying a 14-region energy system model (Global TIMES). The socio-economic uncertainty was considered by introducing Shared Socio-economic Pathways into scenario design. Moreover, a comparison between China, India and West Europe was conducted, to provide information on the key challenges for regions at different industrialisation stages.
While global industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions are expected to grow in reference scenarios, changes in socio-economic developing pattern could slow down the emission growth. However, under 2°C target, at least 118 Gt of additional emission reduction is required from 2010 to 2050, which would require great energy structure changes including rapid electrification. The study shows that improvement on energy intensity could be reduced by over 60% and 50% respectively for emerging economies such as China and India, by mid-century compared with 2010’s level. (China)
- Modellers from Imperial College London have improved their Modular energy systems Simulation Environment (MUSE) model.
MUSE simulates energy system transitions on the long term, using a partial equilibrium model of the energy system based on iterative microeconomic supply-demand data. Using a bottom-up approach to the technology characterisation MUSE enables a high degree of detail on technical and environmental evaluations, where capital, fixed and operating costs, emissions, and fuel consumption for each technology are modelled.
The recent developments applied to the model focus mainly on reforestation modelling, including new features like the mechanisation in the agricultural sector or direct land use change emissions, to represent alternative ways of capturing CO2 besides carbon capture and storage, such as the reforestation potential. (United Kingdom)
- The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has recently published an article emphasising the role of model-based assessments for long-term climate strategies.
With the aim of mapping out the road to limit global temperature increase to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to keep warming below 1.5°C, the report emphasizes the need of developing a combination between local and global perspectives, converting global temperature targets into local greenhouse gas emission targets. This involves country-specific energy, land use, agricultural and economic aspects, for which the use of an integrated modelling toolbox proves necessary in order to cover all sectors and provide a solid quantitative background.
The study also remarks the importance of exchanging information between the various models to enable rich and consistent assessments. In the case of the European Commission, this would involve the addition of technology-detailed information from energy models that can feed into economy-wide models and assess their competitiveness and employment implications.
The insights presented in the report underline how exhaustive model-based analysis can enrich long-term strategy and provide quicker results and emission reductions, allowing countries to consider more ambitious pathways. (Netherlands)