The eighth quarterly report in the Climate Change Modelling Information series is now available. This issue of the report sets an emphasis on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, in addition to the regular sections on Nationally Determined Contributions and  Mid-century strategies. Click on the "more" button below to access the full summary of the report.

Section 1 – Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

The first section of the report highlights various modelling studies related to Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry. Researchers from Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpug, India, published a comprehensive review on Land Use Land Cover (LULC) modelling techniques to better understand the linkages between land use, land cover and urban growth. The review emphasises the need to better incorporate policy frameworks into LULC modelling. Another study from researchers in the USA emphasises the importance of protecting high biomass forests for achieving global carbon mitigation goals. Researchers from the Joint Research Centre, in Europe, assess greenhouse gas emissions and removals of the European Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector integrating different sectoral modelling tools. This research can help in the ex-ante evaluation of climate neutrality in the AFOLU sectors.

Section 2 – Nationally Determined Contributions

The second section focuses on research developments linked to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Researchers from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change provide advice on the EU greenhouse gas emissions budget for 2030-2050, recommending a 90-95% GHG emissions reduction target by 2040 relative to 1990 and emphasising the benefits of demand-side actions. In Greece, researchers analyse the ambitious NDCs targets in Morocco, and suggest strengthening policies to cover sectors beyond electricity, such as transport, industry, buildings sectors. In Spain, a research group highlighting that near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2°C, while long-term pledges are compatible with a future well below 2 °C. However, the authors raise concerns regarding the feasibility of implementing these pledges.

Section 3 – Mid-century strategies

The third section features research linked to mid-century strategies. A study conducted in Switzerland assesses the benefits of a joint Carbon Border Adjustments Mechanism (CBAM) between EU, USA and China; showing the potential of CBAM as collective instruments to improve mitigation efforts and trade competitiveness. A group of researchers in Italy explores the decarbonisation options of the Central Asian and Caspian regions, emphasising the need for rigorous energy planning to align with the Paris Agreement targets, and reduce dependence on energy policies of importing countries. Another report by ClimateWorks Global Intelligence in the USA explores the availability and emissions reduction impact of climate solutions across the energy and land use sectors that can help achieve the climate ambitions of the Paris Agreement. Lastly, researchers from China showing that achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 can reduce heat-related mortality risk by almost a quarter.