Recent modelling developments and studies
date: 03/07/2020
- A recent article in Nature takes stock of the impact of national climate policies to evaluate the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Researchers from institutes around the world have collaborated in a unique multi-model study to assess the impact of current climate policies. The study focuses on emission trends up to 2030 in seven countries and regions jointly responsible for the majority of global GHG emissions (i.e. Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan, the Russian Federation, and the USA). In total, five scenarios are evaluated: a “no new policies or business-as-usual scenario, an NDC scenario (full implementation of conditional national NDCs), and 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios. The study also calculates an “implementation gap”, i.e. the difference between the impact of implemented and planned national policies up to 2017 and the NDCs, and an “ambition gap”, i.e. the difference between the impact of the NDCs and well below 2 °C emission pathways. The scenario analysis performed by the models shows that in order to meet the global target of the Paris Agreement in a cost-optimal way, a 40%–50% reduction in global emissions is required by 2030 relative to the national policies scenario and compared to 2010. They found that the impact of the analysed policies would reduce GHG emissions by 2.5 to 5.0 Gt CO2e by 2030 (median 3.5 Gt CO2e) or 5.5% (4%–8%), compared to a situation where no climate policies and targets would have been implemented. The actual reductions fall significantly short of those pledged in the NDCs. If implemented, those policies would lead to an additional reduction of about 5 to 10 Gt CO2e (median of the models is 7.7 GtCO2e), equalling an emission reduction of about 17% (15%–22%) by 2030, compared against a scenario without emission reductions. So, although the study shows that policies are indeed being implemented, it also identifies a large gap between the Paris goal and countries' pledged contributions, and an even larger gap with the actual implemented policies. A delay in action would either lead to additional costs or failure to achieve the Paris goal. The gap by 2030 is estimated to be around 22–28 Gt CO2e. In order to achieve the targets, all countries should accelerate the implementation of policies regarding renewable technologies and energy efficiency improvements.
- A research team at the Laboratory of Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy (LEEEP) at Peking University reported on a forthcoming article in Climate Change Economics on the climate and health benefits of phasing out iron and steel production capacity in China. The research expands and soft-links between air quality model (GAINS) and IMED models to characterize the impacts of climate change and PM2.5-attributed health co-benefits of phasing out iron & steel (IS) production capacity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China. The authors find that the production capacity phase-out policy (PCPP) based on scale limitation to eliminate outdated production capacity in the region yields total benefits of 34.9 billion Yuan (4.2 billion USD), 89% of which coming from energy saving and carbon mitigation, more than policy costs (20.0 billion Yuan) in 2020. However, the gap between the benefits and the costs will keep narrowing to -2.8 billion Yuan (-0.3 billion USD) in 2020-2030, indicating that policy improvement is needed in the long run. To further increase policy co-benefits and achieve multiple policy targets, policymakers should readjust the production capacity phase-out policy by favouring energy efficiency constraints instead of reducing production capacity (notably through furnace scale limitation). If doing that, the difference of benefit-cost will achieve 42.5 billion Yuan (5.1 billion USD). The regional disparity also exists due to the diverse ratio of benefit-cost in the selected provinces, calling for necessary fiscal incentives to the less developed area, e.g., Hebei, to promote closer integration. The article is relevant to multiple sustainable development goals, the NDCs and air pollutant emission targets and could better support local climate policy-making.
- The same research group at Peking University has developed a new database of steel plants in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The database contains information on 65 ongoing steel plants, accounting for about 67.3% of total crude steel capacities and 73.1% of pig iron capacities in the region. This database includes detailed information about each steel plant, including the general information about plants (e.g., location, opening year and activity levels), the quantity of industrial furnaces, consumption of main raw materials including energy, and output of various iron & steel (IS) products. The database was developed with the support of China’s environmental departments and steel industry experts. For more information consult the LEEEP research group’s website.
- In a forthcoming article in Climate Change Economics, researchers from Ajou University in the South-Korea and the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation in China examine how carbon market cooperation changes the energy system in Northeast Asia. The article analyses the impact of a potential international emissions trading (IET) system between South Korea, China and Japan, the expected gains from emissions trading in such a system, and the role of IET for achieving NDCs. The results show that mutual benefits from emissions trading are expected for all three countries. The article also flags that although an IET system might incentivises China to shift to more renewable energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, it might push Japan and Korea to increase their use of conventional fossil fuels over renewable energy sources. This might happen because importing CO2 permits will lower the marginal domestic CO2 abatement costs in Korea and Japan. Therefore, it is necessary to design such an IET system carefully since the consumers (importers) of pollution permits such as Korea and Japan might face less incentives to transition to clean energy.
- A new provincial-level energy system model is available for the Republic of Korea. The new GCAM-Korea model was developed by researchers at Ajou University and is based on the global change assessment model (GCAM) for the USA. It contains energy and socioeconomic data for 16 of the 17 Korean provinces. Results from the model have been validated as compatible with historical trends. More information about the model and how to access it is available in the recent article in Energies.
- Researchers at the Beihang University and Peking University in Beijing have published an integrated assessment for achieving the 2oC target pathway in China by 2030. They used the dynamic CGE model developed by the LEEEP research group to build ten scenarios varying in the stringency levels of carbon emissions limitations and the availability of different low-carbon options. The results show that the development of non-fossil fuel such as renewable and nuclear power would be the dominant, most effective contributors to reducing the carbon emissions to meet the NDC targets. Furthermore, to achieve the 2oC target, an additional 3.9 Gt CO2 of carbon reduction is needed by 2030. Beyond the development of non-fossil energy sources, other measures such as electricity saving and improving power efficiency could contribute to 40.5% of the total carbon reduction required by 2030 while CCS technologies could contribute to 8.9% of this effort. In addition, the researchers also found that demand side actions such as promoting low-carbon household lifestyles would be important. The article is available in the Journal of Cleaner Production.