CLIMA - Recent modelling developments and studies

With the caveat that it is too early for concrete research results, there is already some evidence that modellers are working to integrate the impacts of the Covid-19 crisis in their work. Researchers in the UK propose a new approach to estimating the reduction of global CO2 emissions during the crisis by compiling a confinement index of government lockdown policies and reduction of human activities. Scientists measuring the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere estimate that the effect of confinement policies on CO2 emissions will be relatively slow and will not drastically stop the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere. Finally, a number of researchers form the Union of Concerned scientists issued a warning about the need to address compound climate risks in the Covid-19 and future pandemics.

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Climate change modelling Climate mitigation

date: 03/07/2020

In the context of the Horizon 2020 Paris Reinforce project, researchers from the University of East Anglia, University of Exeter, University of Groningen, Stanford University, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, and the Global Carbon Project have published an article in Nature Climate Change introducing a new approach to estimating the reduction of global CO₂ emissions during the Covid-19 public health crisis. Despite the number of news reports on the reduction of CO₂ emissions since the beginning of the crisis, there is no reliable, real-time data on emission reductions. Most research uses emissions data reported by countries, but they report CO₂ emissions annually – and usually with a substantial lag. Daily concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere are available in real time, but they are affected by variations in the natural carbon cycle and meteorological events. Therefore, they cannot be used to measure emissions reductions due to the Covid-19 crisis. To solve this data availability problem, the authors compile government policies on confinement and human activity data to help estimate CO₂ emissions reductions during the crisis – the Confinement Index (CI). The CI covers changes in activity across six economic sectors (i.e. power, industry, public buildings and commerce, residential and aviation) and policies such as bans of public gatherings, mandatory closures of schools, restaurants, and public buildings, border closures, etc. The key finding is that daily global CO₂ emissions decreased by 17% by early April compared with 2019, and almost half of this reduction is due to changes in land transport activities. The overall level of decrease for 2020 will depend on the duration and extent of confinement policies. Most importantly, these changes in emissions levels are likely to be temporary if no structural economic, energy and transport changes occur.
New analysis by the scientists at the national meteorological services in the UK and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography shows that despite the Covid-19 related changes in activity, the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere is expected to rise in 2020. The researchers estimate that the annual average CO₂ concentrations will rise by 2.48 parts per million (ppm) in 2020, only 0.32ppm (or 11%) less than if there were no confinement. Another estimate from the IEA is for just an 8% annual decline in GHG emissions. The key message is that even if CO₂ emissions have temporarily reduced, they are still accumulating in the atmosphere. To slow down climate change, GHG emissions will have to slow down much more radically and permanently.
Researchers from the Union of Concerned Scientists have published a comment in Nature Climate Change on the compound climate risks in the Covid-19 pandemic. The article warns about the upcoming climate hazards such as heat waves, wildfires, floods, droughts and hurricanes that are likely to occur during the Covid-19 pandemic, and it emphasises the need for a coordinated response across agencies and sectors to the unfolding public health crisis and the ongoing climate crisis. The authors urge for the creation of a pandemic preparedness strategy for climate adaptation that would allow the international community to address the compound risks of future pandemics and climate crises.
At PBL Netherlands, researchers are working on integrating the impact of the Covid-19 crisis in their Integrated Assessment model calculations. They are trying to estimate the impact of Covid-19 on current policies projections based on ex-ante calculations. This is still work-in-progress given the large uncertainties related to the Covid-19 crisis. In parallel PBL also published a report on the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the Dutch GHG emissions. Based on two scenarios of the impact of the crisis on the Dutch economy developed by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (one positive planning for a recovery by end 2020 and one more negative), the report assesses the potential impact of the crisis on emissions from the transport and mobility sector, industry, buildings, agriculture and electricity demand. It concludes the crisis will mainly impact the emissions from the industrial sector, transport and electricity demand, while the impact will be minimal in the agricultural sector and no decrease is expected in the building sector.