Modelling developments linked to implementation of mid-century strategies
date: 18/12/2019
- Researchers at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency have developed new features for the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). Through the REINVENT project the IMAGE modelling team expanded the number of industrial manufacturing sectors covered by the model. They included the food processing and the pulp and paper sectors to the model which already included the steel, cement and chemical sectors. Industrial sectors face particular challenges in view of the global climate mitigation objectives as they are dealing with both energy-related and process emissions, the long lifetime of technical assets and their high capital costs, high temperature requirements limiting fuel substitution opportunities and complex (heterogeneous) value chains spread across the world. The IMAGE model, and the IAM community in general, can only represent future developments to a limited extent on these issues.[1] Given how industry and academia are also not able to connect all the dots on a global and integrated level, this leaves a large opportunity for IAMs to open new avenues of research.
- Policy makers may also be interested to see the available pathways for this sector, showing potential to uncover where windows of opportunity may arise for mitigation (e.g. age of capital stock, process integration options, responsibilities for society (e.g. demand reductions)). Including new production technologies to current models may also present avenues to improve sector representations (e.g. hydrogen steelmaking). In line with its whole value chain approach the REINVENT team plans to analyse the demand for raw materials and how to better project it in the future. The latest paper on these modelling developments is available online.
- New data for the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP) is available to support IPCC science and climate mitigation strategies. The new dataset has been collected by researchers at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel from modelling teams around the world. The data is in the Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) format and includes variables such as Net carbon mass flux out of atmosphere due to net ecosystem productivity on land, Surface downward CO2, and Net downward flux at top of model. This research will provide information critical for understanding whether carbon dioxide removal or "negative emissions" are a feasible climate change mitigation strategy. The CDRMIP data will be available on the Earth System Grid Federation platform (ESGF). The rationale and experimental protocol for the CDEMIP project are available here.
- A research team across 13 institutions have published a paper on the “Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals” in Nature Energy. As part of the CD-LINKS Scenario Database they developed new datasets and new applications of existing models. In a multi-model exercise using national and global IAMs, they analysed the energy investment required to achieve the international goals to limit the rise in global temperatures and meet the SDGs. The findings show that policies linked to energy transformation have varying effects on the costs of achieving the SDGs. For example, they would increase the cost of expanding energy access and food security, but they would reduce the cost of achieving air quality goals. These research developments allow to measure emissions gaps and to understand the cost of the NDCs better, and thus it provides input for the global stocktaking process.
- A recently published paper in Biomass and Bioenergy by researchers at COPPE/UFRJ investigated the potential for the deployment of diesel biofuel production based on forestry residues conversion through Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS)[2] in Brazil. They found that the country, major bioenergy producer and consumer, is in a privileged position in terms of forestry residues availability, and these residues indicate bioenergy potentials between 297 and 987 PJ for pine and eucalyptus forests. The key modelling development in the research project is the addition of land use and land use aspects to the IAM BLUES model and the data on advanced biofuels conversion routes (with and without carbon capture) generated for the model data set. The researchers are currently working on including water requirement aspects in the model. The study has provided estimates on the production of FTS diesel with and without carbon capture, and identified 21 production hotspots for the development of this technological route throughout Brazil.
- At the World Resources Institute (WRI), researchers have published a working paper taking stock of the long-term strategies (LTSs) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The paper proposes a classification framework for how countries model uncertainties, and reviews how scenarios and pathways are used in LTSs to understand and deal with those uncertainties. The key finding is that many countries identify uncertainty, but defer the analysis of these uncertainties due to lack of data, appropriate models, etc.. Since most countries use quantitative models to project GHG emissions, the researchers suggest that it is feasible to incorporate uncertainty in LTS analyses through the development and use of scenarios. Of special interest for policy-makers is the hypothetical example of a LTS to reduce national GHG emissions to 80 percent below 2005 level by 2050.
- The Shift Project has published a report which tries to present the energy-climate models and scenarios in simple terms and make it accessible to non-modelers. The report defines the main concepts and theoretical assumptions used in energy-climate models and explains the utility and limitations of these models. The report is only available in French.
[1] DG CLIMA has commissioned a number of studies on innovation and pathways to deep decarbonisation of industry. The reports are available at https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/strategies/2050/docs/industrial_innovation_part_1_en.pdf and https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/strategies/2050/docs/industrial_innovation_part_2_en.pdf
[2] Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is the process by which synthesis gas can be converted into ultra-clean fuels and value-added chemicals.