Copenhagen Economics has been commissioned by DG Internal Market to provide an assessment of the state of play of the EU parcel market with particular emphasis on ecommerce.
In other words, this study is focused right at the intersection of parcel (and packet) delivery and e-commerce issues, as per the Terms of Reference for this work.
In order to capture this specific investigation target, we have soon realised that existing information, while useful to characterise e-commerce as a whole (e.g. its economic contribution, trends and needs) or the entire courier, express and parcel (CEP) market (including non-parcel express deliveries, yet no postal packets), would only go so far in shining a light on the exact area we had been asked to study.
For this reason, we have sought to complement the existing secondary data with the collection of primary data from four sources: (i) e-shoppers, (ii) e-retailers, (iii) delivery operators, and (iv) regulators. Our approach has been to collect statistical data from surveys and questionnaires and complement this with case studies based on interviews and desk research. This enables us to combine quantitative and qualitative methods. We use quantitative methods to describe markets and test hypothesis, while we use case studies to understand the market dynamics and develop theories This data collection exercise was ambitious due to the novelty of its specific focus (the delivery of e-commerce goods) and its engagement with not one but four different types
of stakeholders. The data collection allows us, together with a review of existing literature, to provide a snapshot of which gaps affect the delivery of e-commerce parcels and packets.
Moreover, we assess general trends in e-commerce and in delivery markets as a whole as part of the backdrop for our analysis.
The four different primary data sources gathered for this study generate a unique interplay of perspectives which allows us to paint a holistic picture of the burgeoning area of ecommerce parcels / packets delivery. At the same time, it became clear that stakeholders engage with a study of this type in dissimilar manners. For the purpose of this study, we have obtained data from stakeholders throughout the EU, namely 3,077 e-shoppers, 70 eretailers (out of more than 1,000 reached), 61 delivery companies (out of more than 100 reached) and 26 national postal regulators (out of the 27 contacted).
The asymmetry in data provision from e-shoppers versus e-retailers is a factor which also affects previous studies. For instance, a survey conducted by Worldpay in 2012 is based on evidence from 19,000 e-shoppers yet only 153 e-retailers. Other prominent studies of e-commerce have not collected data from e-retailers, but have relied on data from eshoppers.
Two obstacles make this type of study peculiarly challenging. First, many delivery operators have chosen not to provide data due to aversion to sharing information that is highly commercially sensitive to them. While we have mitigated this aversion by offering strict non-disclosure agreements, a mere research study by its nature cannot overcome all barriers to disclosure. Second, e-retailers, the majority of which are micro firms staffed by a small number of employees (perhaps as a venture alongside a bricks and mortar operation) have limited resources to engage with studies – and many have expressed less interest for delivery aspects compared to other challenges (like payment solutions) for their business. E-retailer association often have conducted own studies, but have often chosen not to provide data for our study. As a consequence we have only been able to supplement our data on e-retailers with studies provided by delivery operators and public studies based on mystery shopping.
We are grateful for the support and interest we have received from different stakeholders and for constructive discussion with the project team at DG Internal Market.
The project team at Copenhagen Economics has consisted of partner and project manager, Ph.D. Henrik Ballebye Okholm, senior economist Anna Möller, economist Signe Rølmer, economist dr. Bruno Basalisco, and quality assurer managing director, Martin
Hvidt Thelle. A team from DLA Piper, consisting of Prof. dr. Patrick van Eecke and Julie De Bruyn, has helped us with legal analysis. The team has received great support from colleagues at Copenhagen Economics.
The study consists of two parts. This is Part A which contains the main text. The separately available Part B contains the consolidated country fiches.
Copenhagen, July 15th 2013
Ph.D. partner Henrik Ballebye Okholm