What are predictions for Microsoft & OpenAI's Artificial General Intelligence project, or why Europe is to originate General AI?
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2 September 2019 - updated 1 year ago -
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Passing the boom/bust cycles of AI winters and AI springs, scholars and engineers, innovators and researchers have published over 1.6 million AI-related scientific publications and filed patent applications for nearly 340,000 AI-related inventions.
https://www.wipo.int/tech_trends/en/artificial_intelligence/story.html (The Story of Artificial Intelligence in Patents)
And 99% of published data refer to the so-called narrow and weak AI/ML, its specialized models, techniques, algorithms and applications.
As a result, there is no idea how different may be the general intelligence and unifying algorithms from the incremental ML/DL advances in specific fields:
- vision (2012),
- simple video games (2013),
- machine translation (2014),
- complex board games (2015),
- speech synthesis (2016),
- image generation (2017),
- robotic control (2018),
- writing text (2019).
Microsoft invests in and partners with OpenAI to support us building beneficial AGI
There is no fundamental knowledge, research and development of AGI; for it had no funded nor published by the academic journals.
Microsoft’s hopes are linked with OpenAI mastering Dota 2 by reinforcement learning tasks by empirical trial and error. By playing the game over and over again, 45,000 years of game play, agents learned which strategies are successful.
And that required enormous amounts of raw computing power and millions of dollars renting access to tens of thousands of computer chips inside cloud computing services run by companies like Google and Amazon.
Now they naively believe that it is possible to build AGI in a similar way. “If they can gather enough data to describe everything humans deal with on a daily basis — and if they have enough computing power to analyze all that data”.
In such a brute-force compute power approach, even $1,000,000,000,000 hardly helps.
It is a wrong way and Microsoft is to lose its “smart investment”, which makes only 0,1% of its market capitalization.
The best what Microsoft can do is to filter all the patent filing for AGI in the European Patent Office, and sharing $1b among them.
Deep learning has its deep limits which are recognized by its key promoters.
It has fallen short in embedding machines with deep and causal reasoning, grounded in a conceptual model of reality, as a global ontology of the world.
In other words, machines don’t truly understand the world around them, which makes them fall short in their ability to engage with it.
Everything we learn as humans — almost everything — is learned through self-supervised learning.
There’s a thin layer we learn through supervised learning, and a tiny amount we learn through reinforcement learning
If machine learning, or AI, is a cake, the vast majority of the cake is self-supervised learning.
Unsupervised learning will help machines develop a model of the world that can then predict future states of the world.
So, LeCun is confident: “The next revolution of AI will not be supervised”,
The Next AI Revolution 'Will Not Be Supervised' Because Not Everything Can Be Predicted
While Hinton is sure: no “thought vectors”, no real AI.
Microsoft Azure AI + OpenAI have the same prospects as other big techs ML/AI labs, FAIR, Google’s Brain & DeepMind, etc.
NO MONEY CAN MAKE YOU SMARTER.
YOU ARE EITHER SMART, OR RICH.
It is often said that “Artificial intelligence is a new digital frontier that will have a profound impact on the world, transforming the way we live and work”.
In fact, AGI is the last digital frontier having a final impact on the human world, transforming EVERYTHING, the way we live and work, think and study and play.
NOTHING will miss the never-seen before historical transformations.
And Europe has all the resources, intellectual, financial, technological, to originate the General AI, as soon as the EC is to employ the EU AI Alliance potential launching the EU Global AI Platform as an I-Europe Initiative, instead of wasting its effort and public finances on PR projects, like as AI4EU, led by the defence contractor little to do with Real AI, as Strong/General AI, https://www.thalesgroup.com/en.
Global Artificial Intelligence (GAI): Narrow AI, Applied AI, ML&DL, Strong AI, Full AI, AGI, Global AI, Real AI, Superhuman Intelligence
And let's take seriously the smart people's wisdom:
"AI is a new digital frontier that will have a profound impact on the world, transforming the way we live and work". WIPO Director General, Francis Gurry
Resources
OpenAI forms exclusive computing partnership with Microsoft to build new Azure AI supercomputing technologies
Multiyear partnership founded on shared values of trustworthiness and empowerment, and an investment of $1 billion from Microsoft, will focus on building a platform that OpenAI will use to create new AI technologies and deliver on the promise of artificial general intelligence
OpenAI forms exclusive computing partnership with Microsoft to build new Azure AI supercomputing technologies - Stories
Real AI Manifesto: Artificial Global Intelligence (AGI)
"Whoever Creates Real Artificial Intelligence Will Rule the World"
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/g...
Universal computing ontology as applied to human minds and general AI:
https://www.igi-global.com/book/...
Kiryl Persianov's answer to What are the major types of artificial intelligence?
Kiryl Persianov's answer to How does Google aim to dominate artificial intelligence?