This topic emerged through a screening of emerging issues in science, technology and society in the context of the FET CSA OBSERVE.

http://www.horizon-observatory.eu/radar-en/index.php

The big picture

Several of the findings of the OBSERVE screening point to possible disruptive events that may lead to emergency situations for human societies. At the same time the findings include strategies to deal with and prepare for specific threats and for disruptive change in general.

The following elements of the findings relate to this umbrella topic:

Post antibiotics

Hazards concerning antibiotics or antimicrobial resistance may be looming. The malaria parasite for instance has a new resistance to malaria-drug and this spreads over South and East Asia. Bacteria that are immune to antibiotics might actually be deadlier than bacteria that aren't.

Threat of “space weather”

The threat of space weather is more and more important because our life has a strong dependence on satellites. The UK government has developed a Space Weather Pre-paredness Strategy. Understanding of the mechanisms at play is still poor.

Pandemics strategy

According to Nathan Myhrvold at Bill Gates Global Good Lab, strategies for pandemics are lacking globally. The lab is working on some aspects of this such as effective pro-tection suits.

Big data supported crisis management

Data collected from sms sent to a crisis hotline has been used to optimise intervention strategies. Similar big data analytics strategies could be used by policy schools, social workers and law enforcement to better handle spikes in crises.

Disaster management

Globally, the threat of disasters is rising so e.g. the risk of flooding for US coastal cities has risen significantly. This calls out for solutions for better monitoring and management of catastrophes.

Decline in solar activity by 2030

As reported by the Royal Astronomical Society a new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predic-tions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its con-vection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645.

Universal software bug

Integer overflow, essentially meaning that numbers are too big to be stored in a com-puter system, can cause severe malfunction such as in the case of the failed Ariadne 5 rocket launch. This problem is often neglected by programmers.

3D printed emergency shelter-sustainable habitats

This novel describes an igloo-like emergency shelter made of hexagonal components through 3D printing.

Distributed collaboration platforms

Around the world citizens self-organize to research and address certain challenges such as energy-supply, waste-disposal, water, weather- and threat-monitoring or bee dying. These "peer2peer" initiatives need platforms to safely collect, manage and process data and resources in a distributed and collaborative way. At the same time technical solutions that allow orchestrating large numbers of distributed specialists at short notice and thereby enable new collaboration and service models such as Application Program Interfaces (API) and blockchain technology are receiving a lot of attention.

Selected voices

http://www.bbc.com/news/health-31533559

http://www.nesta.org.uk/publications/longitude-prize-infectious-futures

http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/22/9015505/antibiotic-resistant-bacteria-study-infection-deadliness

http://www.deepstuff.org/with-so-much-vested-in-satellites-solar-storms-could-bring-life-to-a-standstill/

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150505-the-numbers-that-lead-to-disaster?ocid=twfut