The novel coronavirus is bringing societies worldwide to a halt and causing widespread health impacts and fatal outcomes. Still, there appears to be a paucity of information how the crisis is likely to unfold in the near future. Most news outlets only show aggreate numbers, color-coded world maps, or descriptive statistics of the current situation.

This repository holds a daily series, in which I am taking a closer look at numbers and trends, and making some tentative projections. All data are taken from the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 dataset on GitHub. Each day, Johns Hopkins update the dataset with figures for the previous day; I salute their diligent work.

All projections are based on curve fitting on a per-country level. Thus, they extrapolate current trends. By nature, they can neither reflect the impact of recently enacted measures, which are expected to reduce infection rates, nor can they reflect new adverse developments. So please take everything with a grain of salt.

Stay safe, look after your loved ones, and stay healthy.

Markus Noga

Go to the repository

Previous daily updates

• April 1st
• March 31st
• March 30th
• March 29th
• March 28th
• March 27th including hindcasting
• March 26th
• March 25th
• March 24th
• March 23rd
• March 22nd
• March 21st
• March 20th

For questions and comments, please reach out to me on LinkedIn or Twitter