Enlargement countries - industry and service statistics

Data extracted in February 2019.

Planned article update: April 2020.

Highlights

Despite falls in 2015-2017, industrial output in Albania was more than twice as high in 2017 as it was in 2008; this was the largest increase over the last decade among the enlargement countries.

Among the EU enlargement countries, the volume of sales index for retail trade grew most rapidly in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the period 2008 and 2018.

In 2017, 90 % of tourist accommodation bed places available in enlargement countries were located in Turkey.

Industrial production index (NACE Rev. 2), 2008-2018

This article is part of an online publication and provides information on a range of business statistics for the European Union (EU) enlargement countries, in other words the candidate countries and potential candidates. Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Turkey currently have candidate status, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo [1] are potential candidates.

The article provides statistics for several business cycle indicators, including: the industrial production index, the industrial domestic output price index, construction production and costs indices, and the volume of sales index for retail trade. It also provides tourism infrastructure data relating to the number of bed places in hotels and similar accommodation.

Full article

Industrial production index

At the onset of the global financial and economic crisis, there was a sharp contraction in industrial activity in the EU-28. In 2009, the EU-28’s industrial production index fell by 13.7 %, while a partial rebound in 2010 (+6.8 %) and 2011 (+3.0 %) was followed by further reductions in output in 2012 (down 2.2 %) and 2013 (down 0.6 %). Thereafter growth in EU-28 industrial output was recorded for five consecutive years, ranging between 1.2 % in 2014 and 3.1 % in 2017, with the latest information for 2018 showing a slowdown in activity as output rose by 1.3 % — see Table 1.

Table 1: Calendar adjusted indices of production, industry (NACE Rev. 2), 2008-2018
(2015 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_a)

The enlargement countries for which data are available for 2008 and 2009 (no data for Montenegro or Kosovo) all recorded falls in output at the beginning of the financial and economic crisis that were smaller than that recorded in the EU-28. Data from other sources indicate that the largest contraction in industrial activity in 2009 among the enlargement countries was recorded in Montenegro, where the production index fell by almost one third. By contrast, Albania recorded a considerable expansion in its industrial output in 2009, as the production index rose by 4.3 %.

It is possible to evaluate the effects of the crisis by comparing pre-crisis levels of output in 2008 with the most recent data available for industrial production indices, either 2017 or 2018 depending on the country; note that no comparison is available for Montenegro or Kosovo. Serbia reported that in 2017 its level of industrial output surpassed its 2008 level for the first time, whereas North Macedonia achieved this by 2015, Bosnia and Herzegovina by 2011, and Turkey already in 2010. For comparison, industrial production in the EU-28, like in Serbia, only returned to its 2008 level by 2017. As noted above, Albania’s industrial production did not fall in 2009 and in fact grew every year from 2008 to 2014, since when it has declined (no data for 2018).

Industrial output in Serbia was 3.2 % higher in 2018 than in 2008, as output increased annually from 2014. In North Macedonia it was 12.0 % higher, with growth every year except one between 2010 and 2018. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, overall growth between 2008 and 2018 was 14.6 %, with growth every year except one from 2010. The initial impact of the crisis was quite pronounced in Turkey, as industrial output fell by just over 10 % in 2009. However, there was an immediate rebound in 2010 and 2011 when growth of 13.7 % and 14.8 % was recorded. Thereafter, single-digit growth rates were recorded such that by 2018 the industrial production index in Turkey was 66.6 % higher than it had been in 2008. As noted above, Albania was an exception to the general pattern of declining output in 2009, as its industrial production index appeared to be relatively immune to the crisis, with output rising each and every year from 2007 to 2014. However, this period of sustained growth came to an end, with falls of 2.1 %, 18.0 % and 0.6 % recorded in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Nevertheless, industrial output in Albania was more than twice as high in 2017 as it had been at the onset of the crisis.

Domestic output price indices

The development of domestic output price indices — also known as domestic producer price indices (PPIs) — for industry reflects price changes in goods that are sold by manufacturers; they provide an early indication of inflation. One of the key drivers in the development of output price indices is global demand for energy resources, in particular, crude oil. Indeed, in recent years the price of oil has fluctuated far more than the price of many other goods and this has had a direct impact on costs faced by manufacturers in a range of industrial activities, with oil price fluctuations often being passed down the production line between interlinked activities.

A fall in global demand following the onset of the financial and economic crisis, coupled with falling oil prices, led to EU-28 output prices falling by 4.0 % in 2009. In 2010, EU-28 industrial output prices rose by 3.1 % and price rises accelerated in 2011 (6.1 %). Thereafter, price increases slowed in 2012 and in 2013 there was no change in prices, followed by price falls each year between 2014 and 2016. In 2017 and 2018 domestic industrial output prices increased again, up 3.6 % in both years, the fastest price increases recorded since 2011 (see Table 2).

Table 2: Gross domestic output price indices, industry (NACE Rev. 2), 2008-2018
(2015 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inppd_a)

Domestic output prices rose rapidly in North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey

Among the enlargement countries (no data available for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kosovo), the overall change of domestic industrial output prices between 2008 and 2018 was positive except in Albania where there was an overall fall of 0.8 %. Montenegro recorded an increase of 2.9 %, which was below the average for the EU-28 (up 8.4 %). An increase of 13.3 % was reported for North Macedonia while much larger increases were reported for Serbia (58.9 %) and Turkey (140.2 %).

Construction production and cost indices

The effects of the global financial and economic crisis on construction in the EU-28 were even greater than on the industrial economy. Indeed, the production index for construction in the EU-28 fell each and every year during the period 2008-2013, returning to annual growth only in 2014 (see Table 3). From its pre-crisis high in 2007 through to 2013, the EU-28 index of production for construction fell by nearly one fifth (17.9 %).

Table 3: Production and cost indices, construction (NACE Rev. 2), 2007-2017
(2015 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_a) and (sts_copi_a)

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia had a similar development, with considerably lower levels of construction output after the crisis: the 2007 level of production was surpassed in 2016 in Serbia, while in Bosnia and Herzegovina the level of construction output in 2017 was still 22 % below that recorded in 2007.

Elsewhere the index of production for construction grew in recent years. In Turkey the index in 2016 (no data for 2017) was 19 % above what it was in 2007, with stronger growth between 2007 and 2017 in North Macedonia (79 %), Albania (134 %) and most notably Montenegro (509 %), where output more than doubled between 2015 and 2017.

Over the period 2007-2017, there were generally modest increases in the construction cost index for residential buildings in Albania (up 5.0 % overall), the EU-28 (16.5 %) and North Macedonia (18.5 %), while there was a much stronger increase in Turkey (116.5 %). By contrast, the gross index of costs for residential buildings fell during several years in Montenegro, most notably in 2012, and fell overall by 23.5 % between 2007 and 2017.

Volume of sales index for retail trade

The volume of sales index is a measure of turnover in the retail trade sector, adjusted to remove price changes (inflation). Table 4 provides data for this indicator over the period 2008-2018 and shows that the volume of sales index in the EU-28 fell by a relatively small margin during most of the years from 2008 through to 2013, with an overall reduction of 3.9 % during this period. In 2014, growth of 1.9 % was recorded, with this strengthening in 2015 to 3.4 % and stabilising between 2.0 % and 3.0 % in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Table 4: Calendar adjusted volume of sales, retail trade (NACE Rev. 2), 2008-2018
(2015 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_a)

Among the enlargement countries, data for the volume of sales index are generally available for the period 2008-2018, with 2017 the latest year for Albania and Serbia (no data available for Kosovo). During this period there were generally much greater fluctuations in the enlargement countries’ volume of sales indices than the developments seen in the EU-28. North Macedonia and Serbia were characterised by their relatively low volume of sales index at the end of the period shown in Table 4 compared with their levels at the beginning, down 1.9 % (2011-2018) and 25.7 % (2008-2017) respectively. By contrast, the volume of sales indices in the remaining enlargement countries for which data are available showed uninterrupted growth after 2010. Such growth was strongest in Montenegro, where the volume of sales index for retail trade grew by an annual average of 6.0 % between 2010 and 2018, while corresponding rates for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey and Albania were within the range of 4.7-5.5 % per year. For comparison, the volume of sales grew on average by 1.3 % per year in the EU-28 during the same period.

Number of bed places in hotels and similar accommodation

In 2017, there were 13.9 million bed places available in EU-28 hotels and similar establishments. The number of bed places grew in the EU-28 in each and every year over the period 2007-2017. Note that the figures shown do not reflect occupancy rates and instead refer to the supply of available bed places.

Around 90 % of the tourist accommodation bed places available in enlargement countries were located in Turkey

In 2017 (2015 data for Albania), the combined number of bed places available in hotels and similar establishments in the enlargement countries was around 1.6 million; this was equivalent to 11.5 % of the total number of bed places in the EU-28 in 2017.

Table 5: Number of bed places, hotels and similar accommodation, 2007-2017
(thousands)
Source: Eurostat (tour_cap_nat)

Turkey reported by far the highest number of bed places among the enlargement countries, some 1.4 million in 2017, or 90 % of the total across the enlargement countries. Turkey also recorded a large increase in its bed capacity: during the period 2007-2017 the number of bed places in Turkish hotels and similar establishments rose by 904 thousand, an overall increase of 170 %. For comparison, the number of bed places in the EU-28 increased by 17 % over the same period. The number of bed places also rose strongly in Albania (67 %; 2007-2015) as well as in Bosnia and Herzegovina (57 %), while it only fell during this period in Montenegro (-11 %).

Data sources

Data for the enlargement countries are collected for a wide range of indicators each year through a questionnaire that is sent by Eurostat to partner countries which have either the status of being candidate countries or potential candidates. A network of contacts in each country has been established for updating these questionnaires, generally within the national statistical offices, but potentially including representatives of other data-producing organisations (for example, central banks or government ministries). The statistics shown in this article are made available free-of-charge on Eurostat’s website, together with a wide range of other socio-economic indicators collected as part of this initiative.

Traditionally, short-term business statistics (STS) were concentrated on industrial and construction activities, and to a lesser extent retail trade. Since the middle of the 1990s, major developments in official statistics within the EU have seen short-term data collection efforts focus increasingly on services. These data are provided in the form of indices that allow the most rapid assessment of the economic climate within industry, construction and services, providing an early evaluation of recent developments for a range of activities. STS show developments over time, and so may be used to calculate rates of change, typically showing comparisons with the month or quarter before, or the same period of the previous year: the data presented here are annual series derived from monthly or quarterly series.

Within the EU, STS are compiled within the scope of Regulation (EC) No 1165/98 of 19 May 1998 concerning short-term statistics. The STS Regulation has been amended and adjusted to meet emerging users’ needs — generally in relation to monetary union and more specifically to the requirements of the European Central Bank (ECB). Retail trade indices have particular importance because of the role of retail trade as an interface between producers and final customers, allowing retail sales turnover and volume of sales indices to be used as short-term indicators for final domestic demand by households.

Tourism, in a statistical context, refers to the activity of visitors taking a trip to a destination outside their usual environment, for less than a year. It can be for any main purpose, including business, leisure or other personal reasons. In July 2011, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union adopted Regulation (EU) No 692/2011 concerning European statistics on tourism. Tourism statistics in the EU consist of two main components: on the one hand, statistics relating to capacity and occupancy in collective tourist accommodation; on the other, statistics relating to tourism demand. Statistics on the capacity of collective tourist accommodation include the number of establishments, the number of bedrooms and the number of bed places.

Tables in this article use the following notation:

Value in italics     data value is forecasted, provisional or estimated and is therefore likely to change;
: not available.

Context

The profile and use of STS has expanded, as information flows have become global and the latest news release for an indicator may have significant effects on financial markets, or decisions that are taken by central banks and business leaders. STS are a key resource for those who follow developments in the business cycle, or for those who wish to trace recent developments within a particular industrial, construction or service activity. Some of the most important STS indicators are included within the principal European economic indicators (PEEIs) that are essential to the ECB for conducting monetary policy within the euro area. Three PEEIs concern industrial short-term business statistics (the production index, output prices of the domestic market and import prices), a further two PEEIs concern construction short-term business statistics (the production index and building permits), while three more concern services short-term business statistics (the volume of sales in retail trade, turnover in other services and services producer prices).

The EU is a major tourist destination, with five of its Member States among the world’s top 10 destinations for international holidaymakers in 2017, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO). Tourism has the potential to contribute towards employment and economic growth, as well as to development in rural, peripheral or less-developed areas. These characteristics drive the demand for reliable and harmonised statistics within this field, as well as within the wider context of regional policy and sustainable development policy areas.

While basic principles and institutional frameworks for producing statistics are already in place, the enlargement countries are expected to increase progressively the quantity and quality of their data and to transmit these data to Eurostat in the context of the EU enlargement process. EU standards in the field of statistics require the existence of a statistical infrastructure based on principles such as professional independence, impartiality, relevance, confidentiality of individual data and easy access to official statistics; they cover methodology, classifications and standards for production.

Eurostat has the responsibility to ensure that statistical production of the enlargement countries complies with the EU acquis in the field of statistics. To do so, Eurostat supports the national statistical offices and other producers of official statistics through a range of initiatives, such as pilot surveys, training courses, traineeships, study visits, workshops and seminars, and participation in meetings within the European Statistical System (ESS). The ultimate goal is the provision of harmonised, high-quality data that conforms to European and international standards.

Additional information on statistical cooperation with the enlargement countries is provided here.

Notes

  1. This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence
Direct access to
Other articles
Tables
Database
Dedicated section
Publications
Methodology
Legislation
Visualisations
External links





Database

Industry, trade and services (cpc_in)
Candidate countries and potential candidates: short-term business statistics (cpc_insts)
Candidate countries and potential candidates: tourism (cpc_intour)
Industry (sts_ind)
Production in industry (sts_ind_prod)
Producer prices in industry (sts_ind_pric)
Construction, building and civil engineering (sts_cons)
Production in construction (sts_cons_pro)
Construction cost (or producer prices), new residential buildings (sts_cons_pri)
Trade and services (sts_ts)
Wholesale and retail trade (NACE G) (sts_wrt)
Annual data on tourism industries (tour_inda)
Capacity of tourist accommodation establishments (tour_cap)