Archive:Population change at regional level
- Data from March 2009, most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Main tables and Database.
This article presents the current regional pattern of population changes in the European Union, resulting from natural population change or migration; at present migration is the major factor. Demographic trends have a strong impact on EU societies and pose huge challenges in all policy areas. Therefore, detailed statistical information is essential for policy makers and citizens alike.
Main statistical findings
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Population density
On 1 January 2007, 584 million people were living in the EU plus candidate countries and the European Free Trade Association countries. The population distribution varies widely across the 317 NUTS 2 regions that make up this area.
Map 1 shows the population density on 1 January 2007. A region's population density is the ratio of its population to its size. Generally, regions that include capital cities are among the most densely populated, as Map 1 shows. Inner London was by far the most densely populated, but the regions Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest/Bruxelles-Capitale, Wien, Berlin, Praha, Istanbul, Bucureşti — Ilfov and Attiki (Greece) also have densities above 1 000 inhabitants per km².
The least densely populated region was Guyane (France), while the next least densely populated regions, with fewer than 10 inhabitants per km², were all in the Nordic countries Sweden, Finland, Iceland and Norway.
By comparison, the EU as a whole has a population density of 114 inhabitants per km².
Population change
During the last four and a half decades, the population of the 27 Member States that make up the EU today has grown from around 400 million (1960) to almost 500 million (497 million on 1 January 2008). When the candidate countries and EFTA countries are included, the total population has grown over the same period from under 450 million to 587 million.
This total population change has two components: the so-called ‘natural increase’ or 'natural population change', which is defined as the difference between the numbers of live births and deaths, and net migration, which ideally represents the difference between inward and outward migration flows. Changes in a population's size are the result of changes in the number of births, deaths and migrants i.e. people who migrate.
Since the early 1960s, there has been a sustained decline in the 'natural increase'. On the one hand, up to the end of the 1980s, natural increase was by far the major component of population growth. On the other hand, from the beginning of the 1990s onwards, international migration has gained importance and has become the major force behind population growth.
The analysis below is mainly based on demographic trends observed over the period from 1 January 2003 to 1 January 2008. For this purpose, five-year averages of the total annual population change and its components have been calculated. Given that demographic trends are long-term developments, the five-year averages provide a stable and accurate picture. They help to identify regional clusters that often stretch well beyond national borders. For the sake of comparability, population change and its components are presented in relative terms, calculating the so-called crude rates, i.e. those that relate to the total population's size. Maps 2, 3 and 4 show these figures on total population change and its components.
In most of the north-east, east and part of the south-east of the EU, and the candidate and EFTA countries, population is declining. Map 2 indicates a clear divide between the regions there and those in the rest of the EU. Most affected by the decreasing population trend are Germany (in particular the former East Germany), Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania in the east; and in the north the three Baltic Member States, the northern parts of Sweden and Itä-Suomi (Finland). Declining population trends are also evident in many regions of Greece. However, moving eastwards, the total population change is positive in Cyprus and, to a lesser extent, in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey.
During 2003-07, the population increased in nearly all EU western and south-western regions. This is particularly evident in Ireland and in almost all regions of the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, France and Portugal. Increases are also seen in the French overseas departments, and in the Spanish and Portuguese islands in the Atlantic Ocean. There has also been a positive total population change in Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
By analyzing the two components of total population change, natural change (see Map 3) and migration (see Map 4)), the picture provided by Map 2 can be further refined.
Natural change
Map 3 shows that in many EU regions more people died than were born during the period 2003-2007. The resulting negative population change is widespread and affects almost 50 % of EU regions.
A single extended cross-border region can be identified showing a natural increase in population, made up of most or all regions in Ireland, the central United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Switzerland,Iceland, Liechtenstein, Denmark and Norway. In 2003-2007, live births were more numerous than deaths in these regions.
However, deaths were more numerous than births in Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria in the east; in the Baltic Member States and Sweden in the north; and in Greece, Italy and Portugal in the south. The other countries have a more balanced situation overall.
A major reason for the slowdown in the natural population increase is that EU inhabitants have fewer children. At an aggregated level, in the 27 countries that form the EU today, the total fertility rate has declined from around 2.5 in the early 1960s to about 1.5 in 1993, where it has remained ever since.
In 2006, nationally, a total fertility rate of less than 1.5 was observed in 17 of the 27 Member States. For comparison, Figure 1 also includes figures for 1986 and for the candidate and EFTA countries.
Relatively high fertility rates tend to be recorded in countries that have implemented a range of family friendly policies, such as the introduction of accessible and affordable childcare, and more flexible working patterns, as in France, the Nordic countries and the Netherlands.
The (slight) increase in the total fertility rate that can be observed in some countries between 1986 and 2006 may be partly attributable to a catching-up process following postponement of the decision to have children. When women give birth later in life, the total fertility rate first indicates a decrease in fertility, followed later by a recovery.
In comparison, today, in the more developed parts of the world, a total fertility rate of around 2.1 children per woman is considered to be the replacement level, i.e. the level at which the population would remain stable in the long run if there were no inward or outward migration. At present (2006 data), practically all of the EU, and the candidate and EFTA countries, with the exception of Turkey and Iceland, are still well below this replacement level.
The analysis of Map 3 can also be refined by isolating the contribution of live births to natural population change. Figure 2 shows the regional differences within each country of the so-called crude birth rates. The largest regional differences in 2007 were in France, followed by Spain. Both countries had regions where the highest crude birth rate was more than three times that of the lowest rate. For the other countries, regional differences in crude birth rates are less pronounced but still significant.
Migration
The other component of population change after natural change is migration. As many countries in the EU are currently at a point in the demographic cycle where natural population change is close to equilibrium (i.e. no change) or negative, the importance of immigration increases when it comes to maintaining population size. Moreover, migration also contributes indirectly to natural change, given that migrants have children. In addition, migrants are usually younger and they have not yet reached the age when death is more common.
In some regions of the EU, negative ‘natural change’ has been offset by positive net migration. As can be seen in Map 4, this is most noticeable in Austria, the United Kingdom, Spain, northern and central regions of Italy, some regions of western Germany, Slovenia, southern Sweden, Portugal and Greece.
The opposite situation is much rarer: in only a few regions (such as, in the northern regions of both Poland and Finland, and in Turkey) has positive ‘natural change’ been cancelled out by negative net migration.
Four cross-border regions where more people have left than arrived (i.e. negative net migration) can be identified on Map 4: the northernmost regions of Norway and Finland; an eastern group, comprising most of the regions of eastern Germany, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia and most parts of Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey; regions in the north-east of France and the French overseas departments; and a few regions in the south of Italy, in the Netherlands and in the United Kingdom.
Regions where the two components of population change do not compensate for, but rather add to one another, are often undergoing major developments. In these regions, the population change is mostly upwards (positive) or — if not — downwards (negative). A natural increase has been accompanied by positive net migration in Ireland, Luxembourg, Belgium, Malta, Cyprus, Switzerland, Iceland, in many regions in France and Norway and in some regions in Spain, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.
However, both components of population change have moved in a negative direction, as can also be seen from Map 2, in some or all of the regions in Eastern Germany, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania. In these regions, this trend has led to sustained population loss.
Ageing population
In 2007, the average population in the EU aged 65 or older was 17 %, which means there has been an increase of 2 percentage points in the last 10 years. This ageing population raises issues about infrastructure and the need for social services and healthcare, especially in rural areas.
Map 5 shows that the highest percentage of the population aged 65 or older can be found in Liguria (Italy), at 27 %. Germany follows with up to 24 % in the Chemnitz region and has a further 14 regions above 20 %. Some regions in Greece, Portugal, France and Spain also show high figures, with up to 23 % of their population aged 65 years or older. These regions also show low or even negative natural population change, with more people dying than being born.
In Turkey, the percentage of the population aged 65 and older is as low as 3 % in the Van region, and averages 8 % in its other regions. Although Turkey has negative net migration, the high fertility results in a young population. Similarly, in Ireland, high fertility together with high net migration means that only 11 % and 12 % of the population, in both Irish regions are 65 or older.
According to projections, elderly people would account for an increasing share of the population which is due to sustained reductions in mortality in past and future decades. The ageing process can be typified as ageing from the top, as it largely results from projected increases in longevity, moderated by the impact of positive net migration flows and some recovery in fertility.
Conclusion
This article highlights certain features of regional population development in the area made up by the EU Member States, and the candidate and EFTA countries, from 1 January 2003 to 1 January 2008. As far as possible, typologies of regions in the different demographic phenomena have been identified, spreading across national boundaries. While population decline is evident in several regions, at an aggregated level the EU population still increased in that period by around 2 million people every year. The main driver of population growth in this area was migration, which, as can be seen on the maps, counterbalanced the negative natural change in many regions.
Data sources and availability
Eurostat collects a wide range of demographic data which cover fertility, mortality, nuptiality (marriages) and divorces. From these data, it produces a number of demographic indicators.
Data availability depends largely on what is available from the national statistical institutes in the Member States. Every year, Eurostat carries out four data collections in the field of demography, three nationally and one regionally. The data are validated, processed and are publicly available.
Context
Statistical information is necessary to support the achievement of objectives related to regional economic- and social-cohesion through the Structural funds, the European Investment Bank and other existing financial instruments. Regional development is high on the agenda of the Member States holding the EU presidency, and many EU policies concern regional development in the Member States.
The current regional demographic situation and possible future developments pose huge challenges in all policy areas, ranging from education to the labour market and from economic performance to social conditions. The considerable regional differences make it highly important to obtain a view at a more detailed level.
Demographic trends have a strong impact on EU societies. Consistently low fertility levels, combined with an extended longevity and the fact that the 'baby boomers' are reaching retirement age, have resulted in the demographic ageing of the EU population. The older generation's share is increasing, while the share of those of working age is decreasing.
The social and economic changes associated with population ageing are likely to have profound implications for the EU — and are also seen at regional level, stretching across a wide range of policy areas and impacting on, for example, the school-age population, healthcare, labour force participation, social protection, social security issues and government finances.
Demographic development is not the same in all EU regions. Some demographic phenomena might have a stronger impact in some than in others.
Further Eurostat information
Publications
- European Regional and Urban Statistics - Reference guide 2008 (available in English, French and German)
Main tables
- Regional demographic statistics (t_reg_dem)
- Total average population, by NUTS 2 regions (tgs00001)
- Population density, by NUTS 2 regions (tgs00024)
Database
- Regional demographic statistics (reg_dem)
- Population and area (reg_dempoar)
- Population at 1st January by sex and age, from 1980 to 1990 (reg_d2jan80)
- Population at 1st January by sex and age from 1990 onwards (reg_d2jan)
- Population at 1st January by sex and age (source: OECD) - in persons (reg_d2jan_oecd)
- Annual average population by sex (reg_d3avg)
- Average population by sex and age (reg_d2avg)
- Average population, total (source: OECD) - in persons (reg_d2avg_oecd)
- Population density (reg_d3dens)
- Population density (source: OECD) (reg_d2dens_oecd)
- Population change (reg_dempch)
- Births and deaths (reg_d3natmo)
- Births by age of the mother (reg_d2natag)
- Deaths by sex and age (reg_d2morag)
- Infant mortality (reg_d2infmo)
- Population projections (reg_demproj)
- EUROPOP2008 - Convergence scenario, regional level (proj_r08c)
- Regional level - 1 January population by sex and single year of age (proj_08c2150rp)
- Regional level - demographic events (proj_08c2150re)
- EUROPOP2008 - Convergence scenario, regional level (proj_r08c)
- Population and area (reg_dempoar)