Archive:Population change at regional level
- Data from March 2011, most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Main tables and Database.
This article presents the current regional pattern of population changes in the European Union (EU, resulting from natural population change or migration; at present migration is the major factor. Demographic trends have a strong impact on EU societies and pose huge challenges in all policy areas. Therefore, detailed statistical information is essential for policy makers and citizens alike.
Main statistical findings
Population size and density
On 1 January 2009, 499.7 million people inhabited the 27 Member States of the European Union. The population density at EU-27 level in 2008 was estimated at 116 inhabitants per km2.
Map 1.1 shows the population density in 2008. Generally, the NUTS 3 regions that include the capital city of the country, and in most cases the regions in their immediate vicinity, are among the most densely populated.
The NUTS 3 region of Paris was by far the most densely populated (21 022 inhabitants per km2), followed by Inner London West (10 094) and Inner London East (9 049). Population densities above 5 000 per km2 were observed, in decreasing order, in the following NUTS 3 regions: Hautsde-Seine (France), Bucureşti (Romania), Bruxelles-Capitale/Brussel-Hoofdstad (Belgium), Seine-Saint-Denis and Val-de-Marne (France), Melilla (Spain) and Basel-Stadt (Switzerland).
The least densely populated level 3 statistical region within the territory covered in 2008 was Landsbyggd (Iceland) with 1.2 inhabitants per km2. Within the EU-27, the least densely populated NUTS 3 region was Guyane (France) with 2.7 inhabitants per km2.
Population change in 2008
(see Data sources and availability).
Demographic ageing: the situation today
A significant and continuous increase in life expectancy at birth, combined with low fertility rates and the build-up of retirements of the post-World War II baby-boom generation, have led to an ageing population.
The old-age dependency ratio indicates the relationship between the working-age population and elderly persons.
Map 8 shows the old-age dependency ratio calculated for NUTS 2 regions for EU, EFTA and candidate countries. At EU-27 level, the total population aged 65 or over as a proportion of the working-age population was 25.6 %. In other words, on average, every 100 persons of working age were supporting 26 aged 65 or more. At the beginning of 2009, the old-age dependency ratio ranged from 5.4 % in the Van region of Turkey to 43.3 % in Liguria in Italy.
Old-age dependency ratios higher than 30 % were found in 68 regions, mainly in:
- Nordic countries, in regions of Sweden and Finland;
- north-western and central and eastern Europe, comprising regions of the United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany and Bulgaria;
- Mediterranean countries, including regions of France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece.
Conclusion
This chapter highlights selected features of trends in the regional population in the EU-27 Member States, EFTA and candidate countries over the period from 1 January 2006 to 1 January 2009. As far as possible, groups of regions with the same phenomena spreading across national boundaries have been identified.
Although a population decline is evident in several regions, the aggregate EU-27 population nevertheless increased by around 2 million people every year over the period examined. The main driver of population growth is net migration, which counterbalanced the negative natural change in the population in many regions.
The impact of demographic changes within the EU is likely to be of major significance in the decades ahead. Consistently low birth rates and higher life expectancy at birth mark the transition to a much older population, already apparent in several regions.
Data sources and availability
Sources: Eurostat — Population statistics (see Population dedicated section on the Eurostat website).
Population growth, or population change, is the difference between the size of the population at the end and the beginning of the period. It is equal to the algebraic sum of natural population growth and net migration (including the statistical adjustment). There is negative population growth when both of these components are negative or when one is negative and has a higher absolute value than the other.
Migration can be extremely difficult to measure. A variety of different data sources and definitions are used in the Member States, meaning that direct comparisons between national statistics can be difficult or misleading. The net migration figures here are not directly calculated from immigration and emigration flow figures. Since many countries either do not have accurate, reliable and comparable figures on immigration and emigration flows or have no figures at all, net migration is generally estimated on the basis of the difference between total population growth and natural population growth between two dates (in Eurostat data, this is then called net migration including statistical adjustment). The statistics on net migration are therefore affected by all the statistical inaccuracies in the two components of this equation, especially population growth. In effect, net migration equals all changes in total population that cannot be attributed to births and deaths.
Crude rate of population growth is the ratio of the total population growth during the year to the average population of the area in question in that year. The value is expressed per 1 000 inhabitants.
Crude rate of natural population growth is the ratio of natural population growth over a period to the average population of the area in question during that period. The value is expressed per 1 000 inhabitants.
Crude rate of net migration is the ratio of net migration during the year to the average population in that year. The value is expressed per 1 000 inhabitants. As said above, the crude rate of net migration is equal to the difference between the crude rate of population growth and the crude rate of natural population growth (i.e. net migration is considered as the part of population growth not attributable to births and deaths).
Context
Demographic trends have a strong impact on the societies of the European Union. Consistently low fertility levels, combined with extended longevity and the fact that the baby boomers are reaching retirement age, are resulting in ageing of the EU population. The number of people of working age is decreasing, while the number of older people is on the rise.
The social and economic changes associated with population ageing are likely to have profound implications for the EU, at both national and regional levels. They stretch across a wide range of policy areas, with an impact on the school-age population, healthcare, participation in the labour force, social protection, social security issues and government finances amongst others.
Further Eurostat information
Publications
- Eurostat regional yearbook 2010, chapter 1
- European Regional and Urban Statistics - Reference guide 2008 (available in English, French and German)
Main tables
- Regional demographic statistics (t_reg_dem)
- Total average population, by NUTS 2 regions (tgs00001)
- Population density, by NUTS 2 regions (tgs00024)
Database
- Regional demographic statistics (reg_dem)
- Population and area (reg_dempoar)
- Population at 1st January by sex and age from 1990 onwards (demo_r_d2jan)
- Population at 1st January by sex and age (source: OECD) - in persons (demo_r_d2janoecd)
- Annual average population by sex (demo_r_d3avg)
- Area of the regions (demo_r_d3area)
- Area of the regions (source: OECD) (demo_r_d2aroecd)
- Population density (demo_r_d3dens)
- Population density (source: OECD) (demo_r_d2deoecd)
- Population by sex and age groups on 1 January - NUTS level 3 regions (demo_r_pjanaggr3)
- Demographic balance and crude rates - NUTS level 2 and 3 regions (demo_r_gind3)
- Population and area (reg_dempoar)
- Population change (reg_dempch)
- Births and deaths (demo_r_d3natmo)
- Births by age of the mother (demo_r_d2natag)
- Deaths by sex and age (demo_r_d2morag)
- Infant mortality (demo_r_d2infmo)
- Fertility rates by age - NUTS level 2 regions (demo_r_frate2)
- Population change (reg_dempch)