Archive:Enlargement countries - international trade in goods statistics

Data extracted in February 2020.

Planned article update: April 2021.

Highlights

More than four fifths of all goods exported from the candidate countries and potential candidates in 2019 originated from Turkey.

The seven candidate countries and potential candidates recorded a combined trade deficit for goods of EUR 47.4 billion in 2019.

In 2019, more than three quarters of all exports leaving North Macedonia and Albania were destined for the EU-27.

International trade in goods with the EU-27, 2019
(% share of total exports and imports)
Source: Eurostat (ext_lt_intercc)

This article is part of an online publication and provides information on a range of international trade statistics for the European Union (EU) enlargement countries, in other words the candidate countries and potential candidates. Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Turkey currently have candidate status, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo* are potential candidates.

The article gives an overview of international trade developments for goods in the candidate countries and potential candidates, covering imports and exports, as well as the trade balance. It also presents an analysis of international trade by selected product groups (based on the standard international trade classification (SITC)) and by selected partners (including an analysis of their trade positions with the EU_enlargements).

Full article

Value of exports and imports

The total value of the goods exported from the EU-27 to the rest of the world in 2018 was 74 % higher than its level in 2009. There was an even faster development to international trade flows for most of the candidate countries and potential candidates over a similar period, 2009-2019 (see Table 1). The value of exports from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey and Kosovo more than doubled, while exports of goods from Serbia trebled and those from Albania and North Macedonia more than three trebled. By contrast, the value of exports from Montenegro increased by 50 % during this period.

Table 1: International trade in goods, 2009, 2014 and 2019
(million EUR)
Source: Eurostat (ext_lt_intertrd) and (ext_lt_intercc)

More than four fifths of all goods exported from the candidate countries and potential candidates originated in Turkey

In 2019, exports of goods from Turkey were valued at EUR 153 billion. As such, Turkey accounted for more than four fifths (82.6 %) of the total value of exports from the seven candidate countries and potential candidates in 2019. Serbia had the second highest level of exports among the candidate countries and potential candidates (9.1 % of the total), while the third and fourth highest shares were recorded in North Macedonia (3.5 %) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (3.2 %).

The total value of EU-27 imports of goods rose at a relatively slow pace when compared with the pace of growth for exports. There was an overall increase of 60 % in the value of EU-27 imports between 2009 and 2018 in current price terms. Three of the candidate countries and potential candidates — Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania — recorded similar sized increases between 2009 and 2019 in the value of imported goods (up 57-62 %), while notably faster expansions were observed in Turkey (up 80 %), Kosovo (81 %), Serbia (99 %) and North Macedonia (133 %).

None of the candidate countries and potential candidates recorded a trade surplus for goods

In 2019, none of the candidate countries and potential candidates registered a trade surplus for goods. Together they recorded a combined trade deficit for goods of EUR 47.4 billion. In 2019, the size of the Turkish trade deficit for goods was EUR 27.8 billion, similar to what it had been in 2009 (EUR 27.5 billion), despite having been much higher in 2014 (EUR 63.7 billion). Like Turkey, Serbia’s trade deficit for goods in 2019 was similar to what it had been in 2009, just marginally narrower, although it had been considerably smaller in 2014. Between 2009 and 2019, the trade deficits for goods of the other candidate countries and potential candidates increased more notably. In Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia the deficits were between 15 % and 20 % higher in 2019 than they had been in 2009, whereas in Montenegro the increase was 59 % and in Kosovo it was 76 %.

North Macedonia and Serbia were particularly open to international trade

One indicator that may be used to analyse the relative importance of international trade in goods is the value of exports and/or imports expressed relative to gross domestic product (GDP) — see Table 2. Note that the export and import values used in this calculation are based on national accounts data, rather than statistics for the international trade of goods, and these may differ for methodological reasons.

Table 2: International trade in goods, relative to GDP, 2008-2018
(% of GDP)
Source: Eurostat (nama_10_gdp)

EU-27 exports of goods in 2018 corresponded to 35.8 % of GDP, while imports were equivalent to 33.2 % of GDP; note that these data include not only trade with non-member countries, but also trade between EU Member States. Using this measure, most of the candidate countries and potential candidates were seen to be more open to/reliant upon imports. This was particularly the case in relation to the relative weight of imports of goods entering some of the smaller economies. Indeed, the value of imports of goods into the candidate countries and potential candidates (no data available for Turkey) ranged from 30.1 % of GDP in Albania up to 61.9 % of GDP in North Macedonia in 2018.

The contribution of exports of goods to GDP was somewhat above the EU-27 average in Serbia and North Macedonia in 2018, but considerably lower in Montenegro, Albania and Kosovo.

Structure of trade analysed by broad groups of goods

Machinery and vehicles accounted for the highest proportion of goods exported from the EU-27 in 2018, with a 41.6 % share of the total. This was considerably higher than the shares recorded for other manufactured goods (23.0 %) and chemicals (18.2 %), while each of the remaining goods categories shown in Table 3 accounted for less than 10 %.

Table 3: Exports by broad group of goods, 2019
(% of total exports)
Source: Eurostat (ext_lt_intertrd) and (ext_lt_intercc)

Other manufactured goods were the largest category of goods exported by nearly all of the candidate countries and potential candidates

Other manufactured goods (which cover SITC Sections 6 and 8) accounted for the highest share of total exports in nearly all of the candidate countries and potential candidates in 2019; the one exception was North Macedonia. These goods accounted for almost two thirds of all the goods exported from Albania, and around half of all of the goods exported from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, a share that was more than two fifths in Turkey and more than one quarter in the remaining candidate countries and potential candidates. The share of other manufactured goods in total exports was consistently higher among the candidate countries and potential candidates than their corresponding share of EU-27 exports. In North Macedonia, the share of machinery and vehicles (32.9 %) in total exports was somewhat higher than that of other manufactured goods (26.1 %).

North Macedonia was the only candidate country or potential candidate to report that chemicals accounted for in excess of 10 % of its total exports of goods, their share in fact reaching 24.3 % in 2019 (and therefore above the corresponding share recorded in the EU-27; 18.2 % in 2018). Montenegro recorded a relatively high share (21.7 %) of its total exports in 2019 from mineral fuels, lubricants and related goods, four times the equivalent share in the EU-27 (5.5 %) and was one of only two candidate countries and potential candidates — the other being Albania (11.1 %) — to record a double-digit share. Bosnia and Herzegovina reported the lowest share of total exports from food, drinks and tobacco among the candidate countries and potential candidates in 2019: its 5.7 % share was below the EU-27 average (7.3 %; 2018 data); note that the EU-27 figure excludes intra-EU trade, which may be relatively important, especially for perishables. For Montenegro (21.7 %) and Kosovo (19.0 %), the share of exports coming from raw materials was considerably higher in 2019 than in the other candidate countries and potential candidates and also at least seven times as high as the equivalent share in the EU-27 (2.6 %; 2018 data).

Machinery and vehicles, other manufactured goods as well as mineral fuels accounted for a high share of EU imports, while there was a higher propensity to import other manufactured goods in most of the candidate countries and potential candidates

Machinery and vehicles (31.5 %), other manufactured goods (24.4 %) and mineral fuels (20.6 %) accounted for the highest shares of goods imported into the EU-27 in 2018; the next most common group of goods was chemicals (11.6 %). As for exports, the category of other manufactured goods generally accounted for the highest share of total imports among the candidate countries and potential candidates (see Table 4), generally ranging between 29.7 % and 36.3 %, with a relatively low share (21.2 %) in Turkey and a relatively high one (43.6 %) in North Macedonia.

Table 4: Imports by broad group of goods, 2019
(% of total imports)
Source: Eurostat (ext_lt_intertrd) and (ext_lt_intercc)

Trade between the candidate countries and potential candidates and the EU-27

Due to its close geographic proximity, it is not surprising to find that the EU-27 is one of the main trading partners of the candidate countries and potential candidates. Figure 1 shows the relative importance of the EU-27 as a trading partner to the candidate countries and potential candidates in 2019, with more than three quarters of all goods exported from North Macedonia and Albania destined for the EU-27, with Bosnia and Herzegovina recording a slightly smaller share (72.3 %). Approximately two thirds of the goods exported from Serbia were destined for the EU-27, as were more than two fifths of all goods exported from Turkey and around one third from Montenegro and Kosovo.

Figure 1: International trade in goods with the EU-27, 2019
(% share of total exports and imports)
Source: Eurostat (ext_lt_intercc)

In 2019, around three fifths of all imported goods that arrived in Bosnia and Herzegovina originated from the EU-27, with shares between two fifths and three fifths recorded in most of the other candidate countries and potential candidates. The smallest share of imports originating from the EU-27 was 31.6 %, recorded in Turkey.

Table 5 provides more detailed information on the international trade flows of goods between the EU-27 and the candidate countries and potential candidates in 2009, 2014 and 2019. It confirms that Turkey and North Macedonia had the only trade surpluses for goods with the EU-27 in 2019, at EUR 7.5 billion and EUR 750 million respectively; both of these surpluses for the latest period available were reversals of the situations observed in 2009 and in 2014. Albania, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina each recorded a narrower trade deficit with the EU-27 in 2019 than in 2009, while in Montenegro and Kosovo the deficit for trade in goods with the EU-27 widened over the same period.

Table 5: Trade in goods with the EU-27, 2009, 2014 and 2019
(million EUR)
Source: Eurostat (ext_lt_intercc)

An alternative measure for analysing the development of trading patterns between the EU-27 and the candidate countries and potential candidates is shown in Figure 2. The cover ratio is calculated by dividing the value of exports from the candidate countries and potential candidates that were destined for the EU-27 by the value of imports in the candidate countries and potential candidates that originated from the EU-27; a ratio of 100 % is recorded when exports and imports are balanced (in other words, they have identical values). In 2019, the cover ratio for trade in goods between the candidate countries and potential candidates and the EU-27 was below 100 % in all cases except two, underlining that most had a trade deficit with the EU-27. The trade surpluses of North Macedonia and Turkey were reflected in their cover ratios which were over 100 %. Kosovo and Montenegro recorded the lowest cover ratios among the candidate countries and potential candidates for trade in goods with the EU-27 in 2019, at 7.4 % and 12.6 % respectively; in other words, the value of goods imported into Kosovo and originating in the EU-27 was approximately 14 times as high as the value of exports leaving Kosovo and destined for the EU-27, while Montenegro’s imports were around eight times as high as its exports in terms of trade in goods with the EU-27. Apart from North Macedonia and Turkey, the next highest cover ratio among the candidate countries and potential candidates for trade in goods with the EU-27 in 2019 was recorded in Serbia (92.1 %), while ratios of 69.7 % and 61.0 % were recorded in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania.

Figure 2: Cover ratio for trade in goods with the EU-27, 2009 and 2019
(%)
Source: Eurostat (ext_lt_intercc)

The cover ratio for trade in goods between Montenegro and the EU-27 decreased from 20.6 % in 2009 to 12.6 % in 2019, reflecting the widening of the trade deficit as exports to the EU-27 increased more slowly than imports. A smaller fall in the cover ratio was observed in Kosovo. By contrast, the cover ratio for the trade in goods with the EU-27 across the other candidate countries and potential candidates rose over the period 2009-2019, in relative terms most notably in Albania and North Macedonia.

Source data for tables and graphs

Enlargement countries — international trade in goods: tables and figures

Data sources

International trade statistics track the value and quantity of goods traded between countries for imports, exports and the trade balance. All statistics presented in this article as monetary values are based on current price series. Traditionally, customs records were the main source of statistical data on international trade. Following the launching of the Single Market on 1 January 1993, customs formalities between EU Member States were removed, and so a new data collection system, Intrastat, was set up for intra-EU trade. In the Intrastat system, intra-EU trade data are collected directly from trade operators, which send a monthly declaration to the relevant national statistical authorities. The data presented in this article for the EU-27 and the enlargement countries come from the Comext database, Eurostat’s international trade database.

Eurostat collects statistical information on international trade developments with respect to the enlargement countries; these data are used by the European Commission to prepare annual strategy documents detailing policy developments for EU enlargement countries as well as reports on political and economic developments in enlargement countries.

In general, data concerning subjects other than international trade in goods, national accounts and population, are collected for a wide range of indicators each year through a questionnaire that is sent by Eurostat to partner countries which have either the status of being candidate countries and potential candidates. A network of contacts in each country has been established for updating these questionnaires, generally within the national statistical offices, but potentially including representatives of other data-producing organisations (for example, central banks or government ministries). The statistics collected in this way are made available free-of-charge on Eurostat’s website.

Tables in this article use the following notation:

Value in italics	data value is forecasted, provisional or estimated and is therefore likely to change;
:	not available.

Context

The EU has a common international trade policy, often referred to as the common commercial policy. In other words, the EU acts as a single entity on trade issues, including issues related to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). In these cases, the European Commission negotiates trade agreements and represents Europe’s interests on behalf of the EU Member States.

The economic impact of globalisation has had a considerable effect on international trade, as well as financial flows. The EU seeks to promote the development of free-trade as an instrument for stimulating economic growth and enhancing competitiveness. International trade statistics are of prime importance for both public sector (decision makers nationally, within the EU and internationally) and private users (in particular, businesses who wish to analyse export market opportunities), as they provide valuable information on developments regarding the exchange of goods between specific geographical areas.

While basic principles and institutional frameworks for producing statistics are already in place, the enlargement countries are expected to increase progressively the volume and quality of their data and to transmit these data to Eurostat in the context of the EU enlargement process. EU standards in the field of statistics require the existence of a statistical infrastructure based on principles such as professional independence, impartiality, relevance, confidentiality of individual data and easy access to official statistics; they cover methodology, classifications and standards for production.

Eurostat has the responsibility to ensure that statistical production of the enlargement countries complies with the EU acquis in the field of statistics. To do so, Eurostat supports the national statistical offices and other producers of official statistics through a range of initiatives, such as pilot surveys, training courses, traineeships, study visits, workshops and seminars, and participation in meetings within the European Statistical System (ESS). The ultimate goal is the provision of harmonised, high-quality data that conforms to European and international standards.

Additional information on statistical cooperation with the enlargement countries is provided here.

Notes

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.