Data extracted: 18 June 2024
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_GDP)
and OECD.
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_GDP)
and OECD.
Situation in the euro area and the EU
In the 1st quarter of 2024, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in both the euro area and the EU. For comparison, in the 4th quarter of 2023, GDP had decreased marginally (by 0.1%) in the euro area and had been stable in the EU.
Situation in the EU countries
Based on the latest quarter-on-quarter rates of change, GDP increased in the 1st quarter of 2024 in 23 countries, decreased in 3 and remained stable in 1. Malta (up 1.3%) and Cyprus (up 1.2%) recorded the largest increases of GDP. The largest decrease was observed in Denmark (down 1.8%).
Situation in non-EU countries
Compared with the previous quarter, GDP expanded in the 1st quarter of 2024 in China (up 1.6%), Switzerland (up 0.5%), the United States (up 0.3%) and Norway (up 0.2%), while it contracted in Japan by 0.5% and in Iceland by 0.9%.
(*) See latest estimates for more data.
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m).
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m).
In April 2024, seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased month-on-month by 0.1% in the euro area and increased by 0.5% in the EU. In the previous month, it had increased by 0.5% in the euro area and been stable in the EU.
Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_m)
Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_m)
In March 2024, seasonally adjusted production in construction increased month-on-month by 0.1% in the euro area and decreased by 0.1% in the EU. In the previous month, it had increased by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU.
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m).
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m).
In April 2024, the seasonally adjusted volume of sales in retail trade decreased month-on-month by 0.5% in the euro area, following on from an increase of 0.7% in the previous month. In the EU, retail sales decreased by 0.6% in April 2024, having increased by the same percentage in the previous month.
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_manr)
and OECD.
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_manr)
and OECD.
Situation in the euro area and the EU
According to the latest data from Eurostat, the annual inflation rate (based on the HICP) in the euro area was 2.6% in May 2024, up from 2.4% in the previous month. In the EU, annual inflation was 2.7% in May 2024, which was also an increase from the rate in the previous month (2.6%).
Situation in the EU countries
The highest estimated annual inflation rates (based on the HICP) in May 2024 were recorded in Romania (up 5.8%), Belgium (up 4.9%) and Croatia (up 4.3%). The lowest inflation rates were recorded in Latvia (no change), Finland (up 0.4%), Italy (up 0.8%) and Lithuania (up 0.9%).
Situation in non-EU countries
In May 2024, Iceland recorded the highest annual inflation rate (up 5.2%), followed by Norway (up 2.7%), the United States (up 2.0%), Switzerland (up 1.5%) and China (up 0.3%). The annual inflation rate was 2.5% in Japan in April 2024.
Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m)
and OECD.
Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m)
and OECD
Situation in the euro area and the EU
In April 2024, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.4% in the euro area, down from 6.5% in each of the previous 5 months. In the EU, the rate remained at 6.0% as it had been in the previous month; the rate in the EU has been 6.0% or 6.1% each month since July 2022.
Situation in the EU countries
In April 2024, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Czechia (2.7%), Poland (3.0%), Malta (3.1%), Germany (3.2%) and Slovenia (3.3%). The highest rates were in Spain (11.7%) and Greece (10.8%).
Situation in non-EU countries
Among the non-EU countries, the unemployment rate in April 2024 increased in Norway (to 4.3%) and in the United States (to 3.9%), while it was stable in Japan (at 2.6%). The unemployment rate was 4.1% in Switzerland in March 2024 and 3.5% in Iceland in February 2024.
Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m)
and OECD.
Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m)
and OECD.
In April 2024, the youth unemployment rate (for people aged 15–24 years) was 14.1% in the euro area, down from 14.3% in the previous month. In the EU, the rate was 14.4%, down from 14.7% in the previous month.
Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bssi_m_r2).
Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bssi_m_r2).
Situation in the euro area and the EU
In May 2024, the economic sentiment indicator increased by 0.4 points to 96.0 in the euro area and by 0.3 points to 96.5 in the EU. The increase in the euro area resulted from increases in confidence among industrial and services managers as well as in consumer confidence outweighing a slight decrease in confidence among construction managers; there was no change in confidence among retail managers.
Situation in the EU countries
In May 2024, the economic sentiment indicator showed a generally upward development among the EU countries, increasing in 19 and decreasing in 7 (Ireland, no data available). The strongest increase was in Denmark (up 6.2 points), while the strongest decrease was in Spain (down 3.2 points). The index level of the economic sentiment indicator (with a long-term average = 100) varied from 81.6 in Estonia to 111.0 in Greece.
Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsee_m_r2).
Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsee_m_r2).
The employment expectations indicator decreased in the euro area in May 2024, down 0.3 points. This was due to more pessimistic employment plans among retail trade and industrial managers as well as slightly less optimistic plans among services managers outweighing more optimistic plans among construction managers. In the EU, the situation was similar: more pessimistic employment plans among industrial and retail trade managers and slightly less optimistic plans among services managers outweighed slightly more optimistic plans in construction such that the overall index decreased by 0.4 points. In May 2024, the index level (with a long-term average = 100) of the indicator was 101.3 in the euro area and 101.2 in the EU.
Source: Bank of Italy/CEPR and Eurostat (namq_10_GDP).
The €-coin decreased marginally to 0.18 in May 2024 from 0.26 in April 2024 (according to the latest release of the National Bank of Italy on 3 June 2024). The decrease in the indicator reflects the ongoing weakness in manufacturing, but is buoyed by the improvement in consumer confidence and in cyclical indicators for services.
Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsci_m_r2).
The business climate indicator for the euro area increased from -0.51 points in April 2024 to -0.39 points in May 2024.
Source: Eurostat (own calculations).
Source: Eurostat (own calculations).
The growth cycle coincident indicator (GCCI) was 0.97 in May 2024, indicating a slowdown phase for the euro area economy. In the same month, the business cycle coincident indicator (BCCI) was 0.03, confirming the absence of any recessionary signals.
The GCCI and BCCI are synthetic indicators which are experimental in nature and calculated for Eurostat’s business cycle clock. The GCCI shows the probability of a slowdown in the economy and signals the peaks and troughs of the growth cycle, while the BCCI shows the probability of a recession and signals the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. The probability is given on a scale from 0 to 1.
Read more about the methodology in the Statistics Explained article about the business cycle clock.
Source: DZ Bank Research
The DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator increased 0.50% month-on-month in May 2024, to reach 96.24 points. This followed an increase of 0.16% in April 2024. The Euro-Indikator was 0.92% higher in May 2024 than in May 2023.
| Forecasts for the euro area's GDP growth and inflation for 2024 and 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | |||||
| Forecast | GDP growth | Inflation | |||
| 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | ||
| European Commission – | Winter 2024 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Economic forecasts | Spring 2024 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| ECB – | March 2024 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Macroeconomic Projections | June 2024 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| IMF – | January 2024 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| World Economic Outlook | April 2024 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| OECD – | February 2024 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Economic Outlook Forecasts | May 2024 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Sources: EC Economic Forecast: Winter 2024, Spring 2024, ECB Macroeconomic Projections: March 2024, June 2024, IMF World Economic Outlook: January 2024, April 2024, OECD Economic Outlook: February 2024, May 2024 | |||||
| Forecasts for the euro area member countries' GDP growth for 2024 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | ||||||||
| European Commission | ECB | IMF | OECD | |||||
| Winter 2024 | Spring 2024 | March 2024 | June 2024 | January 2024 | April 2024 | February 2024 | May 2024 | |
| Euro area | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Belgium | 1.4 | 1.3 | : | : | : | 1.2 | : | 1.3 |
| Germany | 0.3 | 0.1 | : | : | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Estonia | 0.6 | −0.5 | : | : | : | −0.5 | : | −0.4 |
| Ireland | 1.2 | 1.2 | : | : | : | 1.5 | : | 0.9 |
| Greece | 2.3 | 2.2 | : | : | : | 2.0 | : | 2.0 |
| Spain | 1.7 | 2.1 | : | : | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| France | 0.9 | 0.7 | : | : | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Croatia | 2.6 | 3.3 | : | : | : | 3.0 | : | : |
| Italy | 0.7 | 0.9 | : | : | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Cyprus | 2.8 | 2.8 | : | : | : | 2.7 | : | : |
| Latvia | 1.7 | 1.7 | : | : | : | 1.7 | : | 1.8 |
| Lithuania | 2.1 | 2.0 | : | : | : | 2.2 | : | 1.7 |
| Luxembourg | 1.3 | 1.4 | : | : | : | 1.3 | : | 1.4 |
| Malta | 4.6 | 4.6 | : | : | : | 5.0 | : | : |
| Netherlands | 0.4 | 0.8 | : | : | : | 0.6 | : | 0.7 |
| Austria | 0.6 | 0.3 | : | : | : | 0.4 | : | 0.2 |
| Portugal | 1.2 | 1.7 | : | : | : | 1.7 | : | 1.6 |
| Slovenia | 1.9 | 2.3 | : | : | : | 2.0 | : | 2.3 |
| Slovakia | 2.3 | 2.2 | : | : | : | 2.1 | : | 2.1 |
| Finland | 0.6 | 0.0 | : | : | : | 0.4 | : | −0.4 |
| Sources: See first table | ||||||||
| Forecasts for the euro area member countries' inflation for 2024 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | ||||||||
| European Commission | ECB | IMF | OECD | |||||
| Winter 2024 | Spring 2024 | March 2024 | June 2024 | January 2024 | April 2024 | February 2024 | May 2024 | |
| Euro area | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Belgium | 3.5 | 4.0 | : | : | : | 3.6 | : | 3.6 |
| Germany | 2.8 | 2.4 | : | : | : | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Estonia | 3.2 | 3.4 | : | : | : | 4.2 | : | 3.9 |
| Ireland | 2.2 | 1.9 | : | : | : | 2.4 | : | 2.0 |
| Greece | 2.7 | 2.8 | : | : | : | 2.7 | : | 3.0 |
| Spain | 3.2 | 3.1 | : | : | : | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| France | 2.8 | 2.5 | : | : | : | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Croatia | 2.5 | 3.5 | : | : | : | 3.7 | : | : |
| Italy | 2.0 | 1.6 | : | : | : | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Cyprus | 2.4 | 2.4 | : | : | : | 2.3 | : | : |
| Latvia | 2.2 | 1.6 | : | : | : | 2.0 | : | 1.7 |
| Lithuania | 2.4 | 1.9 | : | : | : | 1.5 | : | 1.8 |
| Luxembourg | 2.6 | 2.3 | : | : | : | 2.5 | : | 2.3 |
| Malta | 2.9 | 2.8 | : | : | : | 2.9 | : | : |
| Netherlands | 2.6 | 2.5 | : | : | : | 2.7 | : | 2.8 |
| Austria | 4.0 | 3.6 | : | : | : | 3.9 | : | 3.7 |
| Portugal | 2.3 | 2.3 | : | : | : | 2.2 | : | 2.4 |
| Slovenia | 2.9 | 2.8 | : | : | : | 2.7 | : | 3.3 |
| Slovakia | 3.5 | 3.1 | : | : | : | 3.6 | : | 2.9 |
| Finland | 1.4 | 1.4 | : | : | : | 1.2 | : | 1.1 |
| Sources: See first table | ||||||||
| Forecasts for the euro area's GDP growth and inflation for 2024 and 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | |||||
| Forecast | GDP growth | Inflation | |||
| 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | ||
| European Commission – | Winter 2024 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Economic forecasts | Spring 2024 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| ECB – | March 2024 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Macroeconomic Projections | June 2024 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| IMF – | January 2024 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| World Economic Outlook | April 2024 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| OECD – | February 2024 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Economic Outlook Forecasts | May 2024 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Sources: EC Economic Forecast: Winter 2024, Spring 2024, ECB Macroeconomic Projections: March 2024, June 2024, IMF World Economic Outlook: January 2024, April 2024, OECD Economic Outlook: February 2024, May 2024 | |||||
| Forecasts for the euro area member countries' GDP growth for 2024 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | ||||||||
| European Commission | ECB | IMF | OECD | |||||
| Winter 2024 | Spring 2024 | March 2024 | June 2024 | January 2024 | April 2024 | February 2024 | May 2024 | |
| Euro area | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Belgium | 1.4 | 1.3 | : | : | : | 1.2 | : | 1.3 |
| Germany | 0.3 | 0.1 | : | : | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Estonia | 0.6 | −0.5 | : | : | : | −0.5 | : | −0.4 |
| Ireland | 1.2 | 1.2 | : | : | : | 1.5 | : | 0.9 |
| Greece | 2.3 | 2.2 | : | : | : | 2.0 | : | 2.0 |
| Spain | 1.7 | 2.1 | : | : | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| France | 0.9 | 0.7 | : | : | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Croatia | 2.6 | 3.3 | : | : | : | 3.0 | : | : |
| Italy | 0.7 | 0.9 | : | : | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Cyprus | 2.8 | 2.8 | : | : | : | 2.7 | : | : |
| Latvia | 1.7 | 1.7 | : | : | : | 1.7 | : | 1.8 |
| Lithuania | 2.1 | 2.0 | : | : | : | 2.2 | : | 1.7 |
| Luxembourg | 1.3 | 1.4 | : | : | : | 1.3 | : | 1.4 |
| Malta | 4.6 | 4.6 | : | : | : | 5.0 | : | : |
| Netherlands | 0.4 | 0.8 | : | : | : | 0.6 | : | 0.7 |
| Austria | 0.6 | 0.3 | : | : | : | 0.4 | : | 0.2 |
| Portugal | 1.2 | 1.7 | : | : | : | 1.7 | : | 1.6 |
| Slovenia | 1.9 | 2.3 | : | : | : | 2.0 | : | 2.3 |
| Slovakia | 2.3 | 2.2 | : | : | : | 2.1 | : | 2.1 |
| Finland | 0.6 | 0.0 | : | : | : | 0.4 | : | −0.4 |
| Sources: See first table | ||||||||
| Forecasts for the euro area member countries' inflation for 2024 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | ||||||||
| European Commission | ECB | IMF | OECD | |||||
| Winter 2024 | Spring 2024 | March 2024 | June 2024 | January 2024 | April 2024 | February 2024 | May 2024 | |
| Euro area | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Belgium | 3.5 | 4.0 | : | : | : | 3.6 | : | 3.6 |
| Germany | 2.8 | 2.4 | : | : | : | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Estonia | 3.2 | 3.4 | : | : | : | 4.2 | : | 3.9 |
| Ireland | 2.2 | 1.9 | : | : | : | 2.4 | : | 2.0 |
| Greece | 2.7 | 2.8 | : | : | : | 2.7 | : | 3.0 |
| Spain | 3.2 | 3.1 | : | : | : | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| France | 2.8 | 2.5 | : | : | : | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Croatia | 2.5 | 3.5 | : | : | : | 3.7 | : | : |
| Italy | 2.0 | 1.6 | : | : | : | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Cyprus | 2.4 | 2.4 | : | : | : | 2.3 | : | : |
| Latvia | 2.2 | 1.6 | : | : | : | 2.0 | : | 1.7 |
| Lithuania | 2.4 | 1.9 | : | : | : | 1.5 | : | 1.8 |
| Luxembourg | 2.6 | 2.3 | : | : | : | 2.5 | : | 2.3 |
| Malta | 2.9 | 2.8 | : | : | : | 2.9 | : | : |
| Netherlands | 2.6 | 2.5 | : | : | : | 2.7 | : | 2.8 |
| Austria | 4.0 | 3.6 | : | : | : | 3.9 | : | 3.7 |
| Portugal | 2.3 | 2.3 | : | : | : | 2.2 | : | 2.4 |
| Slovenia | 2.9 | 2.8 | : | : | : | 2.7 | : | 3.3 |
| Slovakia | 3.5 | 3.1 | : | : | : | 3.6 | : | 2.9 |
| Finland | 1.4 | 1.4 | : | : | : | 1.2 | : | 1.1 |
| Sources: See first table | ||||||||
European Commission: in the spring 2024 forecast, projected GDP growth for 2024 was unchanged at 0.8% in the euro area, while the forecast for 2025 was revised down from 1.5% (in the winter 2024 forecast) to 1.4%. In the spring 2024 forecast, annual inflation for 2024 was projected to decelerate to 2.5%, revised down by 0.2 points compared with the previous forecast;, while the forecast for 2025 was revised down 0.1 points to 2.1%. Following a prolonged period of stagnation and a mild recession in the second half of 2023, growth returned to the euro area’s economy at the start of 2024. A gradual acceleration in growth is expected over the course of 2024 and 2025 as private consumption is supported by declining inflation, recovering purchasing power and continued employment growth. The improved outlook for global trade in goods should support external trade, helping to lift the prospects of the weakened manufacturing sector. Nevertheless, global trade and energy markets appear particularly vulnerable in the context of external risks.
ECB: the latest ECB Macroeconomic Projections for the euro area were published in June 2024. Economic growth is forecasted to be supported by rising household incomes, a resilient labour market, increasing confidence and stronger foreign demand, while financing conditions will be less of a constraint. Euro area economic growth was projected at 0.9% in 2024 and at 1.4% in 2025. Compared with the March 2024 projections, real GDP growth was projected to be faster in 2004, revised up by 0.3 points; the forecast was revised down 0.1 points for 2025. Annual inflation was projected to slow to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. Compared with the previous forecast, the rates for 2024 and 2025 were both revised upwards by 0.2 points.
IMF: in the World Economic Outlook of April 2024, euro area GDP is projected to expand by 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, marking a downward revision for 2024 of 0.1 points and for 2025 of 0.2 points compared with the previous forecast from January 2024. Annual inflation is projected to be 2.4% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, revised down for 2024 from 2.8% and unchanged for 2025. Growth is subdued in the euro area, reflecting weak consumer sentiment, the lingering effects of high energy prices, and weakness in business investment, particularly in manufacturing.
OECD (*): in the May 2024 report of the Economic Outlook, real GDP growth in the euro area was projected at 0.7% for 2024 and at 1.5% for 2025; compared with the February 2024 report, these latest figures represented an upwards revision of 0.1 and 0.2 points, respectively. Annual inflation was forecasted at 2.3% for 2024 and at 2.2% for 2025, revised downwards by 0.3 points for 2024 and unchanged for 2025. The euro area’s economy remains resilient amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty. Private consumption will be supported by wage increases in tight labour markets and increasing real incomes as inflation recedes. Investment will benefit from a gradual easing of credit conditions. Fiscal policy will tighten as energy support measures are gradually withdrawn.
(*) The euro area aggregate includes only OECD member countries. Croatia, Cyprus and Malta are excluded as they are not members of the OECD.
Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the
primary y-axis is cut.
This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.
A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).
The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.
You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.
Read more in the methodological note.
Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the
primary y-axis is cut.
This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.
A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).
The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.
You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.
Read more in the methodological note.
Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the
primary y-axis is cut.
This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.
A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).
The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.
You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.
Read more in the methodological note.
Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the
primary y-axis is cut.
This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.
A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).
The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.
You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.
Read more in the methodological note.
Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the
primary y-axis is cut.
This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.
A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).
The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.
You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters:
Read more in the methodological note.
Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the
primary y-axis is cut.
This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.
A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).
The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.
You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.
Read more in the methodological note.