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Quantifying the potential macroeconomic effects of the Europe 2020 strategy: stylised scenarios

Alexandr Hobza, Gilles Mourre, European Commission

Quantifying the potential macroeconomic effects of the Europe 2020 strategy: stylised scenariospdf(352 kB) Choose translations of the previous link 

Summary for non-specialistspdf(97 kB) Choose translations of the previous link 

An essential part of the Europe 2020 strategy consists of reforms with a medium- to long-term horizon that focus on promoting the sustainability of public finances and enhancing potential growth. Building on structural reform simulations with the DSGE model QUEST III, this paper presents several stylised scenarios combining fiscal consolidation efforts with differentiated progress in implementing structural reforms to explore the possible extent of gains from such reforms. The results confirm that if the EU succeeds in generating necessary reform momentum, GDP could increase by up to 7% by 2020. The extent of the benefits will crucially depend on the depth and breadth of undertaken reforms, however..

(European Economy. Economic Papers. 424. September 2010. Brussels. PDF. 27pp. Tab. Graph. Bibliogr. Free.)

KC-AI-10-424-EN-N (online)
ISBN 978-92-79-14910-8 (online)
ISSN 1725-3187
doi:10.2765/43952 (online)

JEL classification: E24, E62, H68, L51, O30, O41

Economic Papers are written by the staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The Papers are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by staff and to seek comments and suggestions for further analysis. The views expressed are the author’s alone and do not necessarily correspond to those of the European Commission.

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