Acute demographic transformations are taking place in our societies and our economies. Overall, the population in the EU is ageing and birth rates have been steadily declining since the 1960s. Several regions in the EU face the problem of intense departure of their young and skilled workforce.
The combination of these demographic trends has led to a shrinking working age population. Following a decrease by 3.5 million people between 2015 and 2020, the EU working age population is expected to shrink still further over the next years and decades, with the loss of an additional 35 million persons by 2050.
Most Member States are affected, but some regions are more acutely impacted than others. Indeed, in parallel to the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, regions that are often already disadvantaged, suffer a second blow when they lose their best and brightest, who leave to seek their fortune elsewhere, while at the same time failing to attract from outside the region.
If left unaddressed, this process will trigger new and growing territorial disparities as regions age and fall behind in terms of size and skills of their workforces. The change in Europe’s demographic landscape will hamper the resilience and competitiveness of the EU as a whole and compromise Cohesion. This is taking place in the context of a fierce global race for talent and against the backdrop of other structural transformations, such as the transition to a climate neutral and resilient economy and technological change, that may also exacerbate disparities between regions.
A shrinking workforce is thus simultaneously a demographic, economic and social phenomenon. In some regions, the resulting challenges are compounded by a low and stagnating share of persons with a tertiary education. This diminishes regional capacity to address the economic consequences of a shrinking workforce. It particularly affects rural areas, but peripheral, outermost4,and industrial transition regions are also affected by depopulation, departure to wealthier regions, particularly of younger and qualified workers and difficulties in promoting, retaining and attracting talent.
This Communication focuses on regions that are facing a related set of challenges: a sharp working age population decline in combination with a low and stagnating share of people with a tertiary educationas well as regions experiencing a significant departure of young people.