The JRC’s LUISA team has come back this year with an update of the LUISA EU reference scenario, with a big addition!

After producing first experimental local ageing projections in 2018 together with the OECD (see document), the just finalized reference scenario 2020 is much improved and includes a fine grained breakdown of local population by gender and age group produced with the help of the JRC’s unit on migration and demography.

Improvements include better consistency in the used reference data, much more detail in the modelled age classes, the inclusion of gender and gender-specific demographic expectations, and a much more refined approach to the simulation of age-class specific location preferences. The outputs are already used for a number of key policy reports. A separate report on the updated reference scenario will follow shortly.