ECFIN E-news 272 - Winter 2023 Economic Forecast: EU economy set to avoid recession, but headwinds persist
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  16 February 2023  
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In this issue
Top story
Winter 2023 Economic Forecast: EU economy set to avoid recession, but headwinds persist

Almost one year after Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine, the EU economy entered 2023 on a better footing than projected in autumn. The Winter interim Forecast lifts the growth outlook for this year to 0.8% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area.

 
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Viewpoint
Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy

“Thanks to a united and comprehensive policy response, the EU has weathered the storms that have hit our economies and societies since 2020. We must show the same resolve and ambition in tackling the challenges we face today”

News
NextGenerationEU: Commission makes second payment of €1.8 billion to Portugal under Recovery and Resilience Facility

The Commission has disbursed a second payment of €1.8 billion to Portugal under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The disbursement was made possible by Portugal's fulfillment with the 20 milestones and targets linked to the second tranche.

 
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Outcome of February Eurogroup meeting

The Eurogroup meeting discussed recent developments in the energy markets, labour markets, macroeconomic and financial developments, and policy coordination in the euro area.

 
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InvestEU: Commission and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development sign €60 million agreement to provide advisory support for investment projects

The Commission has today signed an agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to provide up to €60 million in advisory support to infrastructure, digitalisation and innovative investment projects in its EU countries of operation under the InvestEU programme.

 
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Speeches
Remarks by Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis at the ECOFIN press conference
Quote We need credible rules that ensure public debt sustainability across the EU. Our aim is for all Member States to have sustainable fiscal positions, using a tailor-made combination of fiscal adjustment, reforms and investments.
 
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Remarks by Commissioner Gentiloni at the Eurogroup press conference
Quote We can now be confident that the euro area will avoid a recession this year. We can now be confident that the euro area will avoid a recession this year. Cautiously confident, as the President said. But these are the data. And we are forecasting inflation to fall more quickly than previously expected despite the fact that core inflation is still slightly increasing.
 
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Remarks by Commissioner Gentiloni at the press conference on the Winter 2023 Economic Forecast
Quote The EU economy entered 2023 on a healthier footing than expected, and looks set to escape recession. Since autumn, the EU economy has seen a number of positive developments.
 
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Opening statement by Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis at the 9th Recovery and Resilience Dialogue
Quote The first priority has to remain the swift implementation of the RRPs. Member States should continue to make every effort to submit payment requests on time and ensure progress with reforms and investments, allowing for a timely disbursement of funds.
 
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Publications
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol. 21, No. 4 (2022)

This edition of the QREA focusses on technical topics that are at the core of the Commission’s recent proposals for the reform of the EU economic governance framework.

 
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European Economic Forecast. Winter 2023

Almost one year after Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine, the EU economy entered 2023 on a better footing than projected in autumn and is now set to narrowly avoid the recession that was anticipated for the turn of the year.

 
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Do National Fiscal Rules Support Numerical Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules?

This paper investigates how national fiscal rules have supported numerical compliance with EU fiscal rules.

 
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Reflections on the Role of Natural Capital for Economic Activity

This Discussion Paper reviews approaches to conceptualising the contribution of natural capital to economic processes, explores their empirical implementation and suggests next steps for the modelling of natural capital in production functions.

 
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The Role of Public Development Banks and Institutions in the Implementation of the United Nations’ Agenda 2030: A Survey in Europe

The paper offers a first attempt to track the sustainability performance of the Public Development Banks and Institutions in Europe and their contribution to the alignment of EU Member States to the Sustainable Development Goals.

 
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This newsletter is published by the European Commission's Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs. The Directorate‑General for Economic and Financial Affairs is the Commission department responsible for EU policies promoting economic growth and recovery, higher employment, stable public finances and financial stability.

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