The study assesses supply options and infrastructure capability, using EU demand forecasts. It highlights the need for action by policymakers and regulators today, ranging from supporting domestic production to ensuring new supplies, while addressing remaining infrastructure bottlenecks.

It builds on insights from the full gas value chain, thanks to the technical input from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) and Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).

In 2023-2025:

• The market will remain tight, with price signals attracting competitive LNG cargoes (up from 90 bcm in 2021 to 200 bcm in 2025), while leaving out other unaffordable or politically sensitive options.
• Production of existing European fields is projected to remain at 200 bcm through 2030 (with Norway accounting for 50% of this), while pipeline imports from neighboring regions are maximized.
• Demand reduction is expected to be significant (70-100 bcm in 2023, falling to around 20-50 bcm in 2025), as households and industry reduce consumption to mitigate high prices, and switch to alternative energies.

From 2026 onwards:

• As additional volumes are made available globally, Europe’s gas supply can be expected to rebalance, and market conditions return to pre-Covid levels by 2026-2027.
• Domestic production declines to 120 bcm, while Europe’s LNG demand increases up to 150% by 2040, depending on demand assumptions.
• To ensure these supplies, the European policy framework needs to support long-term contracts necessary to underpin capital expenditure in LNG export and import capacity.