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Climate change impacts along the agro-food chain: End-user relevant research for food security

Carla Moris

1 May 2016 - updated 4 years ago
25 comments
Total votes: 65

Contribution received to the FET Flagships consultation: Climate change impacts along the agro-food chain: End-user relevant research for food security

Preferably add your comments on this topic at: https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/content/climate-change-impacts-along-ag...

Authors: FACCE MACSUR leadership team

Reporter: Martin Köchy - FACCE MACSUR

The focus of our proposal (food security) has been recognised as a vital area for action at the highest level within European research, policy and stakeholder communities. The EXPO2015 EU Scientific Steering Committee presented recommendations for research and innovation in global food and nutrition security (Fischler et al. 2015). The 2015 Lund Declaration by ten European Joint Programming Initiatives calls for political commitment to the alignment of research, infrastructure, and funding to address grand societal challenges of which food security is one. Our proposal will significantly contribute to the Food Research Area announced by Carlos Moedas, Commissioner for Research Innovation and Science.

It is widely accepted that climate change impact models have enormous potential to address the grand challenges faced by Europe in relation to food, energy and economic security. There has never been a more pressing need for fundamental research linked to real world applications that mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on primary production… And here’s how it could work in practice.

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Martin Köchy,

14/11/2016 12:03

IIASA's David Leclère posted a blog on this topic (https://blog.iiasa.ac.at/2016/10/04/should-food-security-be-a-priority-for-the-eu/) and the discussion continued on ResearchGate:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Should_EU_increase_its_funding_to_research_on_food_security
(Names of posters removed)

NN · 68.94 · University of Vienna
David, I had a look at your question but did not login since there is no direct link from RG. If you want, you can re-post it under my name.

My personal opinion is as follows.

1) There is no food security threat in EU in the coming years, even under moderate climate change. The reason is food overproduction. a) There are some quotas for farmers from different countries. b) There is limitation of food supply from non-EU countries, like Ukraine or Russia. c) There is extra land that is used for production of bio-fuels, for example, in Austria. d) There is a possibility to expand food production in countries like Spain, if desalinated water would be produced and supplied to agriculture at reasonable prices.

2) However, there is an obvious threat for the global food security. Even population growth alone, apart from global warming, can bring problem of food security in countries like China or India in the coming years.

3) If we look at the regional projection of future water supply under climate change, EU (apart from Mediterranean region) might only become a winner, while there might be a global loss. Slight rise of temperature in northern region will increase agricultural productivity. The threat of temperature rise is only for regions with already scarce water.

Oct 4, 2016
MM · 7.96 · Federal College Of Agriculture
Yes, the EU should increase research funding for food security because of the increasing entry of iilegal immigrants to europe from Africa ,Asia and other regions of the world thereby putting pressure on available food and other social services .I suggest that more research fund should be made available to agricultural institutions to train young Africans ,Asians and Arabs on agricultural value chains and entreprenuership skills [ production ,processing, marketing and export potentials] of crops , livestock , horticulture to provide jobs, food and income just like the partnership my institution is having with SWISS government on CBEAN project , WAPPI . CAVA II , HARVEST PLUS to train vulnreable groups such as youths, poor resource women, people with disability and orphans who are at present form 90 percent of illegal migrants into europe .The name of my institution is FEDERAL COLLEGE OF AGRIC AKURE ONDO STATE ,NIGERIA and I invite other EU countries to fund this partnership.

Oct 4, 2016
P.P. · 3.39 · Nepal Agricultural Research Council
Dear N.N.,

I agree with you that food security in developing world is an important area for funding. In countries like Nepal (my country), people generally define food security based on the production of rice, maize and millet. Rice is the most preferred. But we have other more potential edible crops like potato and chayote which can feed us more comfortably specially in hills,high hills and mountain areas. Therefore, I think, food security programs should be based on local potentialities. If EU funding comes in this line to promote locally available higher potential crops and change of food habit, it can be more useful.

Oct 6, 2016
Q.Q · 2.02 · Forschungszentrum Jülich
I think for European countries food security as such is not an important issue at the moment, and it won't become one at least in the next ten or twenty years. I agree completely with Yuri Yegorov in this point.

However, what the EU has to focus on are environmental problems that follow from intensified food production like e.g. the loss of habitats, biodiversity and fertile soils. If these problems are not tackled in the near future, also food security will become more vulnerble.

Oct 6, 2016
R.R. · 5.30 · National Center for Agricultural Research and Extension
Thank you for this important question.

I think yes . EU should increase its funding for research on food security, because due to the climatic change and scarcity of resources in addition to the increase in population, we have to focus on providing food and making it available for poor people especially in the developing countries.

We need more research on the tolerant crops and the most suitable advances techniques for increasing the productivity of crops t save food.

Oct 6, 2016
T.T. · 36.88 · Asian Development Bank
Research into food security is assuredly warranted—despite the current abundance (if not surplus leading to waste) of food in the EU—because climate change (extreme weather events and long-term and gradual climate risks) will impact the availability, access, utilization, and stability of food. Adaptations in the way we treat our environment, farm our lands, and produce food will be key to mitigating the effects and ensuring food security. Toward this, the body of knowledge must be expanded.

To note, ADB’s current operational plan for agriculture and natural resources, which will guide the organization to the year 2020, focuses on promoting sustainable food security in Asia and the Pacific. The plan is at available at https://www.adb.org/documents/operational-plan-agriculture-and-natural-resources-2015-2020.

Oct 7, 2016
V.V.· 11.47 · Universität Kassel
I agree, that there are no current risks of food insecurity in the EU. Still, global food security is very much influenced by farming practices and trade policies in the EU (e.g. subsidized meat exports to Southern regions; outsourcing of protein crop production for European animal husbandry, etc.). Therefore, in a globalized world of highly complex interactions (system of systems) the EU must surely take responsibility and should increase its efforts in research funding for food security.

1 / 0 · Oct 7, 2016
W.W: · 4.91 · Inter-American Development Bank
I agree with V.V., T.T., and R.R. Europe per se is not in danger of food insecurity in the near or medium term and Northern European countries ares likely to be favored by climate change in terms of increased agricultural productivity (prolonged growing seasons and more rainfall).

Nonetheless, the European Union has compelling reasons to invest in global food security. Here are several reasons.

First, it is in Europe's interest to diminish the flow of climate change refugees. Adverse changes in food productivity in developing countries as well as low capacity to cope with natural disasters and climate vagaries in the low and middle-income countries is likely to trigger massive movements of people to European shores.

Second, protectionist agricultural trade policies in the European Union bloc limit and distort agricultural trade specialization. The ability for lower income countries' agricultural output to realize its full potential to is hampered by CAP.

Third, a significant amount of food is wasted throughout the world. Research on how to reduce a modest proportion of this waste in the agricultural food chain would bring efficiency gains, lower carbon footprint, and lower the strain on ecosystems.

Fourth, poor countries do not have enough financial resources to devoted to R&D. Because of interdependence, it behooves richer and more advanced economies to invest heavily in a public good such as agricultural research to improve productivity, conserve resources, and to innovate.

Fifth and lastly, mankind needs to think about becoming an interplanetary specie and R&D is needed on producing agricultural commodities and engaging in terraforming on other celestial bodies like Mars and the moons of Jupiter. Again, only the rich countries have the wherewithal to finance these long gestating investments wherein pay off is likely to be 50 or 100 years into the future but could have positive spillovers on earth too. For example, in mastering how to farm Mars, the same knowledge could be applied to more extreme environs on Earth.

In short research on food security is a no brainer.

2 / 0 · Oct 7, 2016
X.X. · 13.05 · Punjab Agricultural University
Food security is essential for every economy but further exploitation of resources seems undesirable. Managing long term food supply from potential partner countries is better solution.

Jason Jorgenson,

10/11/2016 14:36

Tech developments
» local data that could start to become available like local soil, management, species, weather, etc.
» new data collection methods emerging (drones, crowd-sourcing via smartphone, etc. - see the data collection made possible by Pokemon Go)
» new type of data becoming available (genome sequencing & genome analytics)
» new computing power soon becoming available (quantum computing)
» new methods to extract knowledge from data (big data techniques, statistical modeling)
» new application of models made possible (e.g., crop-model based ideotype for plant breeding, animal breeding for increased thermo-tolerance, simple devices affordable by farmers to design farm management more efficiently)
» bio-safe nanotechnologies becoming available, digestable methane catalysts
» new catalysts/absorbers for methane and N2O
» new vehicles for harvesting (dirigibles, drones – less soil compression)
» new harvesting technologies (point harvests where yields are ripe)
» combination of drones and remote sensing for point-by-point fertilisation/herbicide application/harvesting/irrigation
» improvements in artificial milk/dairy products (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/141022-lab-grown-milk-biotechnology-gmo-food-climate/)
» new(?) ways of shopping/delivery (online, on-demand, subscriptions)
» 3D food printers
» new conservation and storage methods requiring less energy, preserving food longer
» new animal housing structure (mobile barns, conveyor-belt pastures)
» vertical agriculture
» new concepts of yield and product distribution (on-field factories?)

Crazy ideas
• What about using methane collected from barns to power co2 scrubbers that convert the co2 into dry ice that can be used for transporting fresh goods etc. Or sequestered.
• Fart bags fitted the cows? lol. But i think a lot comes from the mouth as well...
• Also, composting for heat is an interesting thing I've actually been researching myself. It could have potential.
• Obviously the Aquaponics angle is one that I think is important. It can put production right where it's needed. The whole urban farming thing could really help cut down on the high carbon footprint of transporting food. As well, it could help ease pressure on fish stocks i suppose.
• What about making a deal with all the airlines to put high res cameras into their planes, that could maybe help with continuously up to date data in a lot of locations. That would generate a lot of data LOL but they might be willing because they get a bad rap for all the co2 they produce... Associations with green projects could be a selling point.
• Some things I've thought of in the past that i thought would be cool were camera mounted to booms (which record the plants/weeds etc) as fields are covered which get identified and logged to provide extremely high resolution data about the field, including what stage plants are at etc, along with water content of the soil.
• Drones are interesting as well. They could be self docking into solar powered charging stations and programmed to continually go out and scan fields to give daily/weekly updates. Maybe even land and take soil samples back for analysis at the station. Tie that into weather station data at the charging dock, and you could make very high resolution analysis possible. This could also be used to scan for pests.
• Another big one might be about bees. Somehow put monitoring devices into hives that detect mites etc so the spread of mites etc could be better controlled. Same with protection from the hornets in the news, the hive killers. Devise some detection that could lock down the hive when under attack.
• The charging stations could be set up to be wireless data repeaters as well, so areas with poor mobile coverage could be enhanced. They could also be used for location enhancement too?
• Drones could drop tiny robotic sensors that check for fungus (lentils etc when too much rain) that are undetectable because of the leaf cover, so they would have to drop down onto the ground get the info, then make their way back to a collection point where they could be collected again by a drone. Sort of like how the robotic lawn mower knows how to get back to its dock. Lol that's a bit out there hey? Haha
• Identifying local market opportunities and crop choices by using data from supermarkets, internet refrigerators in homes, online shopping, etc.
• How to reduce the number of times soil is moved/tilled (release of GHG) but still get the stubble into the ground (C storage).
• Can we get fertiliser into the ground (or into the plants) with lower emissions and draining into the water - leaf application of N?
• Improvements to dung and slurry collection and processing and distribution. Alternatives to spraying?
• Is dual-use of plants better (food, fibre = nutrition & bioeconomy) for C-mitigation or should we take as little from the field as possible (just the grains) and get the rest into the soil (C storage) - hm, that's more of a basic research question.
• How to reduce the CO₂-footprint of global food transportation (I am not even sure if that's a problem).
• Dual-use of agricultural land for solar parks and cropping requires new architecture and machinery.(https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaik-Freiflächenanlage#/media/File:04_Solarpark_Untermöckenlohe.jpg)
• Develop further wind/solar-powered irrigation and tilling systems for tropical regions (https://poweringag.org/innovators/scaling-distribution-tailored-agro-solar-irrigation-kits-smallholder-farmers) - agricultural machines, food processing must become C-neutral globally (apparently only a low percentage of ag CO₂ emissions)
• Start new wetlands, mires (C storage)
• C-neutral agricultural technological progress must be made available to poor countries.
• Breed perennial grasses to deliver carbohydrates. (Less tillage, more slow-decomposing root material produced belowground)
• Technical improvements in reducing methane emissions. Cattle grazing in indoor pastures, methane collected and used. Pasture "greenhouse" can be moved to different paddocks.
• Methane-processing bacteria in stables? in guts? http://www.sciencegarden.de/content/2010-02/mit-bakterien-gegen-den-klimawandel.html http://aem.asm.org/content/65/8/3312.full http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms3785
• Use of cyanobacteria for fixing N from atmosphere for fertilization instead of mineral N on fields
• Production of economically competitive feed protein in Europe - conservation of rain forests
• Large-scale urban agriculture (urban areas are expanding, double-use of land area, on roofs? in the basement? - implications for animal welfare and solar panels)
• Replacements of tractors for point-specific irrigation and fertilisation: drones, field-floor mini-vehicles
• soil moisture is one of the most elusive variables in remote sensing - crowd sourcing might help here
• Tillage-friendly irrigation systems
• Near-ground mini-vehicles that can recognize and cut weeds (less herbicide application)
• LED lighting in greenhouses https://www.wur.nl/en/project/Climate-Smart-Agriculture-CSA-Booster.htm http://csabooster.eu
• Feed additives to reduce ammonia production

Adam Schikora,

14/07/2016 15:05

Food security – in the different meaning of the term (from a sufficient supply to secure and nutritive products) will be a major task not only in Europe but globally. Such an initiative would indeed provide great opportunity to consolidate the efforts already undertaken by different institutions and research groups. A link between the different levels in the agro-food chain would be highly beneficial.

Perttu Virkajärvi,

12/07/2016 10:06

Food security in changing climate is acknowledged as a major issue globally. Modelling of agricultural production, trade and climate change is highly important for understanding the complex interactions and processes of this important research area. The interdisciplinary character and international co-operation of MACSUR has already shown to be efficient in connecting experts to produce high value knowledge input for the society.

Åsa Kasimir,

01/07/2016 10:20

GHG emissions from agriculture is large and challenging. However decisions on reducing emissions while keeping enough food production is not only for the farmer to take, but needs support and planning by the society. Modelling of scenarios including different soil types, like mineral and drained peat soils, have a potential to guide into an agricultural production with low emissions and an efficient crop yield. However this needs connection to policy.

Tamás Krisztin,

27/06/2016 10:21

This is an important project proposal, both from the scientific and the policy points of view. Since food security is such a tremendously important issue, backing of this project on a European level would be of high importance.

Jessica Callen,

24/06/2016 11:11

Interesting and well-written proposal

Petr Havlik,

21/06/2016 20:58

This is a great proposal on a really relevant subject.

David Leclere,

21/06/2016 16:55

While an ever-increasing amount of data becomes available, I am fully convinced that the role of modeling is key as an interface between data, knowledge synthesizing, capacity building, education, knowledge diffusion, values integration and confrontation and decision making at all scales. By placing model development, sound data-model articulation, model accessibility, and end-use usefulness at its core, this proposal has a huge potential to enable timely, innovative and actionable solutions for a climate neutral and climate resilient agriculture.

Heinz Stichnothe,

16/06/2016 08:35

This is an excellent proposal focussing on one of the most relevant and challenging issues fro the coming decades. It has my full support

Ulrike Hagemann,

09/06/2016 16:31

Assessing how climate change impacts the delicate balance between food and feed while maintaing a wealth of other ecosystem services is indeed a challenge worth devloping into an EU flagship!

Michael BUCKI,

08/06/2016 14:23

What about forest-agriculture feedback loops (i.e. a landscape scale, also considering trade-offs and synergies between agricultural intensification and land use change, including as regards carbon, water and ecosystem services contributing to climate resilience of EU landscapes)? Conversion of (de)forested land to agriculture is known as the biggest driver of deforestation (and associated GHG emissions) globally, by far, and I would personally see value in quantifying the potential ways and benefits of sustainably increasing crop yields and resilience, for the purpose of feeding more people with a smaller (global) forest footprint, and vice-versa, how mixed landscapes and agro-foretry can support improved productivity and reduce crop-failure.

Jørgen E. Olesen,

18/05/2016 13:24

This is an excellent proposal that integrates what is needed to ensure sustainability of future agriculture and food production in Europe, a topic that is essential to the future of rural environments and to the healthy living of European Citizens.

Andrew Challinor,

12/05/2016 13:58

There is a tremendous wealth of climate, crop, livestock and trade modelling work. This proposal will ensure stakeholders can use this knowledge.

Lutz Weihermueller,

09/05/2016 08:20

Excellent work which has to be supported (also in future).

Chrisine Foyer,

04/05/2016 15:41

This is an excellent proposal that has my full support.

Ewa Zimnoch-Guzowska,

04/05/2016 10:29

Food and energy security programs based on fundamental research are substantial needs for proper global development in next decades

Waldemar Bojar,

04/05/2016 09:13

An ex-ante assessment of current CAP measures made on the base of information coming in majority from two regions in Poland (Kujawy & Pomorze and Lubelskie) creates conditions for:
- first, to monitor effects of applied CAP instruments in particular regions and even micro regions and on this base decentralise current and future policies as much as possible,
- secondary, to shape agricultural policy in a systemic way to ensure their cohesion with other the EU policies like environmental and social policy to avoid contradictions indicated in this elaborations. This way more sustainable development can be reached also in micro regional scale today and also in the future.

Floor Brouwer,

03/05/2016 20:43

There is a communication gap between research and practice. Whereas climate research tends to provide projections on changes in climate and associated impacts for mid-century or beyond, farming practices first of all need to cope with near-term changes, often with alterations already under way. Moreover, understanding the impacts of climate has implications for the Nexus of food, energy and water. It is not yet clear how climate uncertainty and policy uncertainty interact.
Such topics are major challenges at regional, national, European and global scales. The proposed initiative will build on this and offers great opportunities for public-private initiatives.

Pete Smith,

03/05/2016 18:01

This is essential work. Delivering food security to 9-10 billion people by 2050 is one of the greatest challenges humanity has ever faced.

Kairsty Topp,

03/05/2016 17:14

The work provides opportunity to netwrok across Europe and to assess the impact of Climate Change on agriculture.

Pytrik Reidsma,

03/05/2016 16:42

Good proposal and good team

Nandor Fodor,

03/05/2016 11:11

Highly relevant topic and initiative as more food will have to be produced worldwide in the next 50 years than has been during the past 10,000 years to keep up with population growth. There is little consensus on how this can be achieved by sustainable means. Therefore, more understanding is needed to clarify all aspects of climate change impact on agro-food chain.

John R Porter,

03/05/2016 10:54

I led the writing of the IPCC chapter on food security for the IPCC AR5 in working group 2 - 'Food Security and Food Production Systems'. The scientific bedrock of COP21 was the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5). In the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change the only social and economic sector mentioned specifically (in Article 2) is ‘to ensure that food production is not threatened’. The geographical reach of the AR5 food security chapter was regional and global, included crop and livestock agriculture and dealt with both impacts and adaptation of agriculture regionally and globally to climate change. Evidence of impact of the food security chapter is that it was downloaded about 48,000 times in the months after publication, it contributed 25% (more than any other chapter) of the figures used in the final Summary for Policy Makers (SPM), to which I contributed as Lead Author and which is the only IPCC document agreed and signed-off by all UN governments. The SPM was downloaded over half a million times. Thus, the food security chapter provided major points to the SPM which was translated into the deciding policy relevant background to the COP21 agreement. Thus the clear evidence is that Porter’s work in the IPCC since 1995 and his input into IPCC’s AR5 evidence on local, regional and global food security and climate change has had an enormous and potentially game-changing impact at the highest political levels. The global population will be affected if the food security conclusions on impacts of and adaptation to climate change on food systems are heeded; the chapter had a direct effect on COP21 decision making; the boundaries of its impact are local, regional and global.

Finally - we identified a number of issues at the end of the chapter that still need resolution - in particularly the issue of a food system being more than just production. A FACCE JPI on this topic would be wise to start with the issues raised in the IPCC AR5.

John R Porter

Agustin Perez-B...,

03/05/2016 09:23

A major societal challenge!!!

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Climate change impacts along the agro-food chain: End-user relevant research for food security

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