Archive:Enlargement countries - industry and service statistics

Data extracted in March 2022.

Planned article update: May 2023.

Highlights

Turkey’s industrial output increase was the highest among the candidate countries and potential candidates, with 69.3 % (between 2011 and 2021), while Albania came second, with 57.0 % (between 2010 and 2020).

Domestic output prices in industry in Turkey increased by 278.5 % between 2011 and 2021.

The volume of sales indices in Montenegro increased by 71.8 % between 2011 and 2021.

Calendar adjusted indices of production in industry (NACE Rev. 2), 2010-2021

This article is part of an online publication and provides information on a range of business statistics for the European Union (EU) enlargement countries, in other words the candidate countries and potential candidates. Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Turkey currently have candidate status, while Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Kosovo* are potential candidates.

The article provides statistics for several business cycle indicators, including: the industrial production index, the industrial domestic output price index, construction production and costs indices, and the volume of sales index for retail trade. While these short-term indicators are usually produced on a monthly or quarterly basis, in this article only annual indices are presented in order to give a broad overview of developments during the period 2010-2021.

Full article

Industrial production index

At the onset of the global financial and economic crisis in 2009, there was a sharp contraction in industrial activity. However, by 2011 the industrial production index had returned to growth in most of the candidate countries and potential candidates as well as in the EU (see Table 1).

Table 1: Calendar adjusted indices of production in industry (NACE Rev. 2), 2010-2021
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_a) and Eurostat data collection

Most of the candidate countries and potential candidates for which data are available (no data for Kosovo) recorded growth in industrial output in 2011, the exception being Montenegro where output contracted by 9.7 %. It is possible to evaluate the extent of the recovery from the crisis by comparing the levels of output in 2011 with the most recent data available for industrial production indices, either 2020 or 2021 depending on the economy; note that no comparison is available for Kosovo. Industrial output in Montenegro was 8.2 % higher in 2021 than in 2011, in Bosnia and Herzegovina it was 10.9 % higher, in North Macedonia it was 14.7 % higher and in Serbia it was 21.7 % higher. Two of the countries stood out in terms of the growth of their industrial output from 2011 to 2021: in Albania, output was 32.0 % higher in 2020 than in 2011, despite falls in 2015-2017 and 2019-2020; in Turkey, output went up 69.3 % between 2011 and 2021, which was the highest growth in the candidate countries and potential candidates, despite a slight fall in 2019 (the first since the crisis).

Over the period 2011-2021, the EU recorded a significative growth of 7.4 %. The growth seen in 2011 (up 3.7 %) turned into decline in 2012 (down 2.1 %) and in 2013 (down 0.6 %). Thereafter, there were five consecutive years of growth for EU industrial output, ranging between 1.2 % in 2014 and 2018 and 3.3 % in 2017. This recovery was short-lived as further reductions in output followed in 2019 (down 0.5 %) and in 2020 (down 7.4 %). However, the EU reported a significant increase in industrial output in 2021 (up 8.1 %). The COVID-19 pandemic caused all countries to experience a slowdown in activity as output fell in 2020, except for Turkey.

Production changes by main industrial grouping

Figure 1 presents the changes in the volume of output according to main industrial groups (MIG). These groups include intermediate goods, capital goods, durable consumer goods, non-durable consumer goods and electricity.

Figure 1: Calendar adjusted indices of production in industry (NACE Rev. 2) by main industrial group, 2021
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_a)

Among the candidate countries and potential candidates for which data is available (no data for Albania and Kosovo), Montenegro had the highest growth in the production of intermediate goods (up 48.9 %) and durable consumer goods (up 129.8 %) in 2021 compared to 2015. In contrast, it was also the country for which capital goods (down 27.3 %) and non-durable consumer goods (-39.0 %) decreased the most. Turkey had the highest growth in the output of capital goods with +40.2 % over the same period. The highest increase in the output of non-durable consumer goods and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply were also reported in Turkey, with +36.3 % and +26.3 %, respectively. In contrast, Serbia was the only country showing a fall between 2015 and 2021 for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 0.2 %). Finally, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina showed, in 2021, the their only fall in the output of non-durable consumer goods (down 16.4 % and 2.3 %, respectively).

The change in the production levels of the EU between 2015 and 2021 were more moderate than in most of the candidate countries and potential candidates. The smallest growth was observed for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 3.5 %), while the largest increase was for durable consumer goods (up 15.2 %).

Domestic output price indices

The development of domestic output price indices — also known as domestic producer price indices (PPIs) — for industry reflects price changes in goods that are sold by manufacturers; they provide an early indication of inflation, and can be found in Table 2. One of the key drivers in the development of output price indices is global demand for energy resources, in particular, crude oil. Indeed, in recent years the price of oil has fluctuated far more than the price of many other goods. This has had a direct impact on costs faced by manufacturers in a range of industrial activities, with oil price fluctuations often being passed down the production chain between interlinked activities.

Table 2: Domestic output price indices in industry (NACE Rev. 2), 2010-2021
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inppd_a)

Among the candidate countries (no data available for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo), the overall change of domestic industrial output prices over the latest 10-year period was positive, except in Albania where there was a slight fall (down 1.1 %) between 2014 and 2021 (no data available prior to 2014). Montenegro recorded an increase of 10.0 % between 2011 and 2021. Between 2011 and 2021, increases of 10.2 % and 25.8 % were reported for North Macedonia and Serbia, respectively, while a much larger increase was reported for Turkey (278.5 %).

In 2011 and 2012, EU industrial output prices rose by 5.7 % and 2.7 %, respectively, as they recovered from the fall experienced during the global financial and economic crisis. Thereafter, price falls were observed each year between 2013 and 2016. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, domestic industrial output prices increased again by 3.2 %, 3.4 % and 0.9 %, respectively. Most recently, in 2020, domestic industrial output prices declined by 2.4 % and, in 2021, increased by 12.4 %. Overall, EU industrial output prices in 2021 were 13.7 % higher than they had been at the mid-point of the crisis in 2011.

Construction production and cost indices

Figure 2 presents the production index for construction in the candidate countries and potential candidates, and the EU.

Figure 2: Calendar adjusted indices of production in construction (NACE Rev. 2), 2010-2021
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_a) and Eurostat data collection

Among the candidate countries and potential candidates, the effects of the global financial and economic crisis on construction were most significantly apparent in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Albania. Indeed, these two countries’ production index for construction fell each and every year during the period 2010-2013. However, from their level in 2010, Albania’s production index increased by almost two thirds (59.7 %) by 2021, while Bosnia and Herzegovina’s index declined by 9.0 %. The time series for Turkey is shorter and shows an increase of 30.4 % between 2010 and 2016. Between 2010 and 2014, North Macedonia had relatively low levels of construction output but reported an increase of 83.2 % in 2021 compared to 2010. Serbia more than doubled (increase of 135.4 %) its index between 2010 and 2021, even though it experienced a large decline in 2013 and a smaller one in 2020. The increase of Montenegro’s index of production in construction, 182.2 %, was the highest during the period analysed (2010-2021).

The EU had a similar development to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania, that is, a negative growth each year during the period 2010-2013, returning to annual growth only in 2014. From 2010, the EU index of production for construction increased by 2.8 % in 2021. Between 2013 and 2019, construction output grew each year, with the overall growth in this period totalling 12.1 %.

Over the period 2010-2021, there were generally modest increases each year in the construction cost index for new residential buildings (see Figure 3) in Albania (up 3.3 % overall; 2010-2017 – latest available data) and North Macedonia (up 36.0 % overall; 2010-2021), while there were much stronger increases in Turkey (up 341.2 % overall; 2010-2021), in particular in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. By contrast, the gross index of costs for residential buildings in Montenegro fell during several years and declined by 18.5 % overall between 2010 and 2020 (latest available data). In the EU, there was an overall growth of 16.9 % over the period 2010-2020.

Figure 3: Construction cost index for new residential buildings (NACE Rev. 2), 2010-2021
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_copi_a) and Eurostat data collection

Volume of sales index for retail trade

The volume of sales index is a measure of turnover in the retail trade sector, adjusted to remove price changes (inflation). Figure 4 provides data for this indicator over the period 2010-2021 and shows that the volume of sales index among all candidate countries and potential candidates for which data are available increased in 2021 as compared to 2010 levels. There are no data for Kosovo.

Figure 4: Calendar adjusted volume of sales for retail trade (NACE Rev. 2), 2010-2021
(index 2015 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_a)

Between 2010 and 2021, Serbia and North Macedonia had the lowest changes in the volume of sales index, up 14.3 % each. Albania followed with an overall increase of 52.7 %, where there was uninterrupted growth during the period 2010-2019 only to fall in 2020, which ended the period with another increase in 2021. In contrast, the volume of sales indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Turkey, rose by 74.2 % and 83.2 % overall, respectively, with falls in 2019 (Turkey) and 2020 (Bosnia and Herzegovina). Montenegro’s volume of sales index showed uninterrupted growth during the period 2010-2021 and reported a 107.2 % overall growth during this period. During the period under consideration, the volume of sales index in the EU fell by a relatively small margin during the early years shown in Figure 4, with an overall increase of 18.1 % between 2010 and 2021.

Source data for tables and graphs

Enlargement countries — industry and services: tables and figures

Data sources

Data for the candidate countries and potential candidates are collected for a wide range of indicators each year through a questionnaire that is sent by Eurostat to candidate countries or potential candidates. A network of contacts has been established for updating these questionnaires, generally within the national statistical offices, but potentially including representatives of other data-producing organisations (for example, central banks or government ministries). The statistics shown in this article are made available free-of-charge on Eurostat’s website, together with a wide range of other socio-economic indicators collected as part of this initiative.

Traditionally, short-term business statistics (STS) were concentrated on industrial and construction activities, and to a lesser extent retail trade. Since the middle of the 1990s, major developments in official statistics within the EU have seen short-term data collection efforts focus increasingly on services. These data are provided in the form of indices that allow the most rapid assessment of the economic climate within industry, construction and services, providing an early evaluation of recent developments for a range of activities. STS show developments over time, and so may be used to calculate rates of change, typically showing comparisons with the month or quarter before, or the same period of the previous year: the data presented here are annual series derived from monthly or quarterly series. Retail trade indices have particular importance because of the role of retail trade as an interface between producers and final customers, allowing retail sales turnover and volume of sales indices to be used as short-term indicators for final domestic demand by households.

Tables in this article use the following notation:

Value in italics	data value is forecasted, provisional or estimated and is therefore likely to change;
:	not available.

Context

The profile and use of Short-term business statistics (STS) has expanded, as information flows have become global and the latest news release for an indicator may have significant effects on financial markets or on decisions taken by central banks and business leaders. STS are a key resource for those who follow developments in the business cycle, or for those who wish to trace recent developments within a particular industrial, construction or service activity. Some of the most important STS indicators are included within the principal European economic indicators (PEEIs) that are essential to the European Central Bank for conducting monetary policy within the euro area. Three PEEIs concern industrial short-term business statistics (the production index, output prices of the domestic market and import prices), a further two PEEIs concern construction short-term business statistics (the production index and building permits), while three more concern services short-term business statistics (the volume of sales in retail trade, turnover in other services and services producer prices).

While basic principles and institutional frameworks for producing statistics are already in place, the candidate countries and potential candidates are expected to increase progressively the quantity and quality of their data and to transmit these data to Eurostat in the context of the EU enlargement process. EU standards in the field of statistics require the existence of a statistical infrastructure based on principles such as professional independence, impartiality, relevance, confidentiality of individual data and easy access to official statistics; they cover methodology, classifications and standards for production.

Information concerning the current statistical legislation on short-term business statistics can be found here.

Eurostat has the responsibility to ensure that statistical production of the candidate countries and potential candidates complies with the EU acquis in the field of statistics. To do so, Eurostat supports the national statistical offices and other producers of official statistics through a range of initiatives, such as pilot surveys, training courses, traineeships, study visits, workshops and seminars, and participation in meetings within the European Statistical System (ESS). The ultimate goal is the provision of harmonised, high-quality data that conforms to European and international standards.

Additional information on statistical cooperation with the candidate countries and potential candidates is provided here.

Notes

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Direct access to

Database

Short-term business statistics (sts), see:

Industry (sts_ind)

Production in industry (sts_ind_prod)

Producer prices in industry (sts_ind_pric)

Construction, building and civil engineering (sts_cons)

Production in construction (sts_cons_pro)

Construction cost (or producer prices), new residential buildings (sts_cons_pri)

Trade and services (sts_ts)

Wholesale and retail trade (NACE G) (sts_wrt)

Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (Text with EEA relevance)
Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (Text with EEA relevance)