Archive:Europe 2020 indicators - executive summary
This article is part of a set of statistical articles based on the Eurostat publication Smarter, greener, more inclusive? - Indicators to support the Europe 2020 strategy, providing recent statistics on the EU's Europe 2020 strategy.
Overview of trends in the Europe 2020 headline indicators
A set of nine headline indicators and additional sub-indicators has been developed to back up the monitoring of the Europe 2020 strategy’s objectives. An analysis of the developments in these indicators since 2008 shows a diverse picture.
The Europe 2020 strategy
Europe 2020 is the EU’s growth and jobs strategy for the current decade, striving to pave the way to a smart, sustainable and inclusive future. The strategy envisages measures to overcome the economic crisis and move beyond it by addressing the structural weaknesses in the European economic model. The final objective is to deliver high levels of employment, productivity and social cohesion in the Member States, while reducing the impact on the natural environment.
To reach its objective, the EU has adopted five ambitious headline targets in the areas of employment, research and development (R&D), climate change and energy, education and poverty reduction, to be reached by 2020. These have been translated into national targets to reflect the situation and possibilities of each Member State to contribute to the common goal. A set of nine headline indicators and additional sub-indicators (relating to the multiple dimensions of poverty and social exclusion) give an overview of how far or close the EU is from reaching its overall targets.
In 2014, the European Commission published a communication taking stock of the Europe 2020 strategy. It reflects on the challenges and possibilities for meeting the targets adopted four years earlier, in view of adjusting the strategy for the period 2015 to 2020. According to the Commission’s communication, the EU is on track to reach some of its headline targets for 2020 but has fallen behind with regards to others, with the crisis having a sizeable impact.
Since 2008 substantial progress has been made in the area of climate change and energy through the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and the increase in the use of renewable energy sources. Positive developments are also visible in the area of education, where the EU is within reaching distance of both headline targets. Larger efforts will be required to get back on track with R&D investment, while meeting the employment and poverty targets will remain challenging. The analysis in this 2014 edition of Smarter, greener, more inclusive aims to shed light on the trends in the headline indicators over the past five years, from 2008 up to 2012 or 2013 (depending on data availability).
Employment rate
In 2008, employment in the EU for the age group 20 to 64 peaked at 70.3 %, following a period of steady increase. In the following years employment trends reversed as a result of the unfavourable effect of the economic crisis on the European labour market. In 2009, the employment rate fell down to 69.0 % and since 2010 has remained consistently low. By 2013, the indicator had fallen to 68.4 %, marking a deviation of 6.6 percentage points from the Europe 2020 target of increasing the employment rate of the population aged 20 to 64 to at least 75 %.
A breakdown of the employment figures by gender reveals that between 2008 and 2013 the employment rate of men deteriorated sharply by 3.5 percentage points, while no significant change was recorded in the rate for women. This has resulted in a narrowing of the gender employment gap. The continuous fall in employment rates since 2009 has mostly affected young people, low-skilled workers and non-EU nationals. Another vulnerable group includes older people, whose employment rates are considerably lower compared with other groups in the labour force.
Corresponding to the abrupt fall in employment rates, unemployment levels have climbed since the onset of the crisis until 2013. The unemployment rate of young people aged 15 to 29 has been particularly high in the EU over the same time period, reaching 18.7 % in 2013. Unemployment rates of low-skilled people have also soared, with lowly educated young people being the worst off in 2013, having unemployment rates of 30.0 %. Additionally, long-term changes in the demographic structure of the EU population add to the necessity of increasing employment rates. Despite a growing population, low fertility rates combined with a continuous rise in life expectancy are likely to result in a shrinking EU labour force. Increases in the employment rate are, therefore, necessary to compensate for the expected decline in the working-age population by 3.5 million people by 2020.
Gross domestic expenditure on research and development (R&D)
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D as a percentage of GDP has recorded a slight increase since 2008. In 2013 the indicator stood at 2.02 %, compared with 1.85 % in 2008. The increase amid the economic crisis between 2008 and 2009 reflected a wider EU effort to stimulate economic growth by boosting public expenditure on R&D. In 2013, the EU was still 0.98 percentage points below its target for 2020, which envisages increasing combined public and private R&D expenditure to 3 % of GDP.
Investment in R&D is crucial for transforming the EU in a successful and competitive knowledge-based economy. The progress in this regard has been strengthened by an increase in the output of tertiary graduates in science and technology, by 17.9 % between 2008 and 2012. An increase in the share of female graduates has additionally contributed to closing the gender employment gap. Overall, digital literacy has increased among the EU population. Recent measures to strengthen human capital have also involved an increase in the stock and mobility of researchers.
In terms of overall R&D expenditure, the EU is still lagging behind its Asian and American competitors. However, European high-tech exports to outside markets have surged between 2009 and 2012, mainly driven by growth in the aerospace and pharmaceutical sectors. The EU’s international position in terms of human capital has also improved, surpassing Japan in 2008 in the share of tertiary graduates.
By 2012, emissions of greenhouse gases across the EU have fallen by 17.9 % compared with 1990 levels, marking a strong progress towards achieving the 2020 headline target of 20 % reduction. By far the strongest drop within one year since the early 1990s was recorded between 2008 and 2009, when emissions fell by 7.3 %. This swift decline in greenhouse gases has mainly been attributed to the economic crisis and the depressed economic activity in many parts of Europe and in sectors such as industry, transport and energy. The mild winter of 2010/11 further contributed to the reduction in energy demand and emissions. Between 2009 and 2012 levels have remained relatively stable. Progress has been uneven across sectors, with the largest reduction recorded in the manufacturing and energy industries, while in domestic transport and international aviation and maritime transport emissions have increased.
The share of renewable energy in gross final energy production in the EU has increased since 2008, from 10.5 % in 2008 to 14.1 % in 2012. The largest contributors have been solid biofuels, amounting to half of the gross inland consumption of renewable energy in 2012. Hydropower has also remained a large contributor, but its share has declined since 2000. In contrast, the share of wind and solar energy has increased substantially thanks to effective support schemes and dramatic cost reductions. In 2012, the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption was 5.9 percentage points below the Europe 2020 target of 20 %.
In 2012, primary energy consumption in the EU reached a decade low of 1 584 million tonnes of oil equivalent. The figure is roughly equivalent to the primary energy consumed in the EU in 1990. Between 2008 and 2012 energy use fell by 6.2 %, and it will need to fall by further 6.4 % in the coming eight years in order to meet the Europe 2020 goal of moving towards a 20 % increase in energy efficiency. The trend in final energy consumption has closely followed the trend in primary energy consumption but at a lower level, falling from 1 189 Mtoe in 2005 to 1 103 Mtoe in 2012.
Although the EU currently seems to be on track to achieving its target, recent reductions in primary and final energy consumption have been mostly attributed to the slowdown in economic activity following the crisis, rather than structural shifts in energy consumption.
Early leavers from education and training and tertiary educational attainment
The EU indicator for early leavers from education and training, measured as the share of 18 to 24 year olds with at most lower secondary education and not in further education and training, has consistently declined since 2008, for both men and women. In 2013, the indicator stood at 12.0 %, compared with 14.7 % in 2008. Thus, Europe is steadily approaching its headline target for 2020, which envisages reducing the rate of early leavers from education and training to less than 10 %.
Young men are more likely to leave education and training early than women, even though their rate has declined faster between 2008 and 2013, from 16.6 % to 13.6 %. Figures for women are within reaching distance of the overall EU target, standing at 10.2 % in 2013, due to their lower initial rate.
Improvements can also be observed in the Europe 2020 headline indicator for tertiary education. The share of 30 to 34 year olds who have attained tertiary education has continuously increased since 2008, from 31.2 % in 2008 to 36.9 % in 2013. Disaggregated by gender, the data reveal that growth in the share of tertiary graduates has been considerably faster for women, who have already met the Europe 2020 target eight years in advance and continue to show improvements. Progress has been slower for men: by 2013, only 32.7 % of 30 to 34 year old men had attained tertiary education. Provided that these positives trends continue, the EU seems to be on track to meeting its target of increasing the share of the population aged 30 to 34 having completed tertiary education to at least 40 % by 2020.
The importance of fostering higher education is illustrated in forecasts by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) concerning the skills required by the labour market until 2025. Between 2013 and 2025, some 20 million jobs requiring medium or high qualification are estimated to be created, whereas positions only requiring low qualifications are expected to decline by nearly 12 million.
People at risk of poverty or social exclusion
Over the period 2005 to 2008, the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion in the EU-27 decreased steadily, from 124 million to 117 million people. The indicator reached its lowest level in 2009 with about 114 million people living at risk of poverty or social exclusion. This positive trend was reversed in the following years.
The increase has been largely attributed to the economic crisis of 2008 and the following recessions in the majority of Member States. Despite the cushioning role of automatic stabilisers and other discretionary policies, in 2012 the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion in the EU-27 peaked at nearly 123 million, before falling back by almost two million in 2013. The figures reveal that almost every fourth person in the EU-27 was at risk of poverty or social exclusion over the period 2011 to 2013.
The most widespread form of poverty in the EU is monetary poverty. In 2013, 82.6 million people, representing 16.6 % of the total EU-27 population, were at risk of poverty after social transfers. The second most frequent form of poverty was severe material deprivation, affecting 47.6 million people or 9.6 % of all EU-27 citizens. The third dimension is very low work intensity, with 39.7 million people falling into this category in 2013. This equalled 10.6 % of the total population aged 0 to 59 in the EU-27.
The three dimensions of poverty and social exclusion covered by the headline indicator have developed unevenly since 2005. Monetary poverty has been the most prevalent form and has shown a slightly increasing trend since 2005. In contrast, the number of people affected by severe material deprivation or very low work intensity fell considerably over the period 2005 to 2008/09; however, both poverty dimensions have been on the rise again since then.
Across all three dimensions of poverty, the most vulnerable groups appear to be the same, namely children, young people, single parents, families with three or more dependent children, people with low educational attainment, and migrants. More than 30 % of young people aged 18 to 24 and 27.6 % of children aged less than 18 were at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2013. Moreover, one out of five children and young people aged 18 to 24 were subject to monetary poverty. Of all groups examined, single parents with one or more dependent children faced the highest risk of poverty.
The European Commission aims to reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 20 million by 2020, compared with the 2008 level. [1] In 2013, the gap to the EU-27 target was 25 million people. Further efforts would be needed to maintain a downward trend in the indicator for poverty and social exclusion to meet the Europe 2020 goal.
See also
Further Eurostat information
Publications
- Smarter, greener, more inclusive - indicators to support the Europe 2020 strategy (also downloadable as online publication)
Main tables
Dedicated section
Methodology / Metadata
- Towards robust quality management for European Statistics - Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council COM(2011) 211 final.
Other information
- Regulation 223/2009 of 11 March 2009 on European statistics
External links
Notes
- ↑ Due to the structure of the survey on which most of the key social data is based (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions), a large part of the main social indicators available in 2010, when the Europe 2020 Strategy was adopted, referred to 2008 data for the EU-27 as the most recent data available. This is the reason why monitoring of progress towards Europe 2020 headline targets takes EU-27 data from 2008 as a baseline year (see European Commission, Social Europe — Current challenges and the way forward. Annual Report of the Social Protection Committee (2012). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2013, p. 12).