Archive:Europe 2020 indicators - executive summary
This article is part of a set of statistical articles based on the Eurostat publication Smarter, greener, more inclusive - Indicators to support the Europe 2020 strategy, providing recent statistics on the EU's Europe 2020 strategy.
Overview of trends in the Europe 2020 headline indicators
A set of eight headline indicators and three sub-indicators has been developed to back up the monitoring of the Europe 2020 strategy’s objectives. An analysis of the developments in these indicators since 2005 shows a diverse picture.
Employment rate
Between 2005 and 2008 the employment rate of people aged 20 to 64 years increased, peaking at 70.3 % in 2008. This growth was visible throughout different groups in the labour force (men, women, older and younger people, high- and low-skilled workers and migrants). The trend was reversed in 2009 when the economic crisis fully hit the European labour market, bringing the employment rate down to its 2006 level of 69.0 %. During the next three years the employment rate came to a standstill at 68.5 % without recording any progress towards the Europe 2020 target of 75 %. Over the period 2005 to 2012 the employment rate of women grew faster than those of men, resulting in a closing of the gender employment gap.
The economic crisis revealed some of the most vulnerable groups (young people, non-EU nationals, low-skilled workers) that need to be addressed in view of the Europe 2020 strategy’s ‘inclusive growth’ priority. Women, especially those aged 55 to 64 years, and older workers in general still have considerably lower employment rates than other groups in the labour force. This puts these groups in the spotlight for making progress towards the overall EU employment target.
Additionally, long-term changes in the demographic structure of the EU population add to the necessity of increasing employment rates. Despite a growing population, low fertility rates combined with a continuous rise in life expectancy are predicted to lead to a shrinking EU labour force. Increases in the employment rate are therefore necessary to compensate for the expected decline in the working-age population by 3.5 million people by 2020.
Gross domestic expenditure on research and development (R&D)
Between 2005 and 2007 gross domestic expenditure on R&D remained relatively stable at about 1.8 %. The indicator started increasing with the onset of the economic crisis — a trend reflecting an EU-wide approach of stimulating economic growth by boosting public R&D expenditure. Between 2009 and 2011 R&D expenditure stabilised at about 2 % of gross domestic product (GDP). This has put the EU off track towards its Europe 2020 target of raising combined public and private R&D expenditure to 3 % of GDP.
R&D expenditure is a means to a competitive and successful knowledge-based economy. It is enhanced by other important factors such as tertiary education and high-tech patent applications. The EU has increased its output of tertiary graduates in science and technology (almost 50 % between 2000 and 2011) and the share of female graduates, improving gender equality. In this regard the EU is making progress towards tackling the demographic challenge ahead and, furthermore, becoming better prepared for increased future R&D investment.
Compared with international competitors such as the United States, Japan, China and South Korea, the EU still has to catch up and reduce the gap with regard to overall R&D intensity.
In the period 2005 to 2007 greenhouse gas emissions remained almost constant, but started declining in 2008, mainly as a result of the sudden slowdown in economic activity in that period. The strongest drop occurred between 2007 and 2011, when emissions fell by almost 10 % due to the economic crisis and the slow economic recovery which dramatically reduced industrial activity, transport volumes and energy demand. The mild winter of 2010/11 further pushed down energy demand and emissions. By 2011, the EU as a whole cut man-made emissions of greenhouse gases by 17 % compared to 1990 levels, three percentage points away from the headline target of – 20 % to be reached by 2020. The largest reductions were achieved in the manufacturing and energy industries sectors, while emissions from domestic transport as well as aviation and maritime transport increased.
The share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption has increased substantially in the EU, from 8.5 % in 2005 to 13 % in 2011. Biomass contributes more than two-thirds of all gross inland energy consumption of renewable energy, but thanks to effective support schemes and dramatic cost reductions, the share of wind and solar energy has increased the fastest. Despite this positive trend, further progress is needed to ensure the Europe 2020 target of 20 % is realised.
Between 2005 and 2011 primary energy consumption in the EU declined, reaching a decade low of 1.58 million tonnes in 2011. Thus, in 2011 the EU consumed roughly as much primary energy as it did in 1990 and 7 % less than in 2005. Benchmarked against the Europe 2020 headline target of improving energy efficiency by 20 % by 2020, the EU has already achieved 70 % of the envisaged savings of 368 Mtoe nine years before the target year. It is important to note that this achievement is only partly due to efficiency improvements. The original projections, made in 2007, which underlie the efficiency target assumed that GDP would grow steadily after 2007. Because GDP growth is one of the key drivers of energy consumption, the low economic performance in the EU partly explains the observed reduction.
Early leavers from education and training and tertiary educational attainment
Early leavers from education and training, measured as the share of 18 to 24 year olds with at most lower secondary education and not in further education and training, has fallen continuously in the EU since 2005, for both men and women. The fall from 15.8 % in 2005 to 12.8 % in 2012 represents considerable progress towards the headline target of reducing early leavers from education and training to less than 10 % by 2020. Nevertheless demographic trends might render the Europe 2020 target unfeasible if efforts to keep people in education are not stepped up.
Young men are more likely to leave education and training with at most lower secondary education than women. While in 2012 women were already close to the overall EU target, at 11.0 %, the rate was much higher for men, at 14.5 %.
Improvements have also been visible in the second Europe 2020 headline indicator. Between 2005 and 2012, the share of 30 to 34 year olds having completed tertiary educational attainment grew continuously from 28.0 % to 35.8 %. Growth was considerably faster for women, who in 2012 had already met the Europe 2020 target. In contrast, only 31.6 % of men had completed tertiary education. Assuming that the EU maintains this trend, the headline target of ensuring at least 40 % of 30 to 34 year olds have completed tertiary education by 2020 is within reach.
Forecasts concerning the skills required by the labour market until 2020 underline the importance of higher education. Between 2010 and 2020, some 18 million jobs requiring a medium or high-level qualification are expected to be created, while low-qualified jobs will decline by about 10 million.
People at risk of poverty or social exclusion
The number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion in the EU steadily decreased in the period 2005 to 2009, reaching a low of about 114 million in 2009. As the economic crisis took hold of financial and labour markets in that year, the number started growing again. Despite the cushioning role of automatic stabilisers and other discretionary policies adopted across the EU, the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion climbed to almost 120 million in 2011. This means that almost every fourth person in the EU was at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2011. This deterioration was mostly driven by people living in material deprivation.
The year 2009 marked a turning point in the development of two of the three dimensions covered by the headline indicator, namely severely materially deprived people and people living in households with very low work intensity. The two indicators decreased considerably until 2009, but started to increase from then on. On the other hand, the sub-indicator — people at risk of poverty after social transfers — remained relatively stable until 2010, but increased in the next year.
Monetary poverty is the most widespread form of poverty in the EU. The number of people at risk of poverty after social transfers in 2011 was 83.4 ¬million or 16.9 % of the total EU-27 population. 43.4 million people or 8.8 % of the population were living in severe material deprivation. This was followed by 38.5 million people living in households with very low work intensity, making up 10.2 % of the population aged 0 to 59.
When looking at all three dimensions of poverty, the most vulnerable are: young people, single parents, families with many children, people with low educational attainment, and migrants. Almost 30 % of young people aged 18 to 24 and 27 % of children aged less than 18 were at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2011. Moreover, one out of five children and young people aged 18 to 24 years were subject to material poverty.
The aim of the European Commission is to reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 20 million by 2020 compared with the level in 2008[1]. In 2011 the EU was about 24 million away from the target. Without adequate policy measures to rapidly reverse this escalating poverty trend, the EU risks moving away from the Europe 2020 headline target on poverty.
See also
Further Eurostat information
Publications
- Smarter, greener, more inclusive - indicators to support the Europe 2020 strategy (online publication, also downloadable as PDF file)
Main tables
Dedicated section
Methodology / Metadata
- Towards robust quality management for European Statistics - Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council COM(2011) 211 final.
Other information
- Regulation 223/2009 of 11 March 2009 on European statistics
External links
Notes
- ↑ Due to the structure of the survey on which most of the key social data is based (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions), a large part of the main social indicators available in 2010, when the Europe 2020 Strategy was adopted, referred to 2008 as the most recent year of data available. This is the reason why monitoring of progress towards Europe 2020 headline targets takes 2008 as a baseline year (see European Commission (Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion), Social Europe — Current challenges and the way forward. Annual Report of the Social Protection Committee (2012), Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013, p. 12).