Last updated: 17 June 2022
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_GDP)
and OECD
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_GDP) and OECD
In the euro area, GDP increased quarter-on-quarter by 0.6% in Q1 2022, according to the revised figures published by Eurostat. This is a somewhat faster than the pace of 0.2% recorded in the previous quarter. In the EU, GDP expanded quarter-on-quarter by 0.7% in Q1 2022, following an improvement of 0.5% in Q4 2021.
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m)
In April 2022, the seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU, compared to March 2022, according to estimates from Eurostat. In March 2022, industrial production fell by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU.
Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_m)
Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_m)
In March 2022 compared to February 2022, seasonally adjusted production in the construction sector remained stable in the euro area and rose by 0.2% in the EU. In February 2022, production in construction rose by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU.
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m)
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m)
In April 2022, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 1.3% in both the euro area and in the EU, compared with March 2022, according to estimates from Eurostat. In March 2022, the retail trade volume increased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU.
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_manr) and OECD
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_manr) and OECD
Euro area annual inflation was 8.1% in the euro area and 8.8% in the EU in May 2022, up from 7.4% and 8.1% in April.
Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD
Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD
In April 2022, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained stable at 6.8% in the euro area and at 6.2% in the EU compared with March 2022.
Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bssi_m_r2)
Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bssi_m_r2)
The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) remained broadly unchanged in May 2022, increasing month-on-month by 0.1 points to 105.0 in the euro area. In the EU, the ESI declined by 0.5 points to 104.1. The indicator’s slight decrease in the EU was due to weaker confidence among industry managers and, to a lesser degree, consumers. Services, retail trade and construction confidence remained virtually unchanged.
Source: Bank of Italy/CEPR and Eurostat (namq_10_GDP)
The €-coin increased to 0.95 in May 2022, from 0.61 in April . The indicator is buoyed by the resilience at historically high levels of business confidence and it reflects the recent data on economic growth in the first quarter that give slightly better signals than those of the flash estimate released at the end of April.
Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsci_m_r2)
The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased by 0.3 points to 1.3 in May 2022 compared with April.
Source: OECD
The OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to point to growth losing momentum in Europe and to stable growth in the OECD area as a whole.
The CLIs are now either at or below long-term trend levels in most major OECD economies. Pushed down by high inflation and very low consumers’ confidence, the CLIs point to a loss in growth momentum in the euro area as a whole, including in Germany, France and Italy. In contrast, the CLIs continue to point to stable growth in the United States and Japan.
Ongoing uncertainties related to the war of agression against Ukraine and COVID-19 are resulting in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLI components. As a result, the indicators should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of growth in economic activity.
The CLIs aim to anticipate cyclical fluctuations in economic activity over the next six to nine months based on a range of forward-looking indicators such as order books, confidence indicators, building permits, long-term interest rates, new car registrations, and many more. Most indicators are available up to May 2022.
Source: DZ Bank Research
DZ BANK’s Euro-Indicator continued to fall in May, albeit only by 0.06% compared with the previous month (99.45 from 99.51). This is the third decline in a row, following a decrease of 0.2% in April and an outright slump in March (-2.0% month-on-month). The year-on-year rate of change of DZ BANK’s Euro-indicator fell to -2.7% in May, which is the weakest reading since June 2020, the first summer of the pandemic. Spring 2022 thus ends with a negative trend, which does not suggest a recovery for the summer months given a usual lead time of our indicator to the actual trend.
| Comparison of real GDP growth forecasts for the euro area | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Commission1 | IMF2 | OECD3 | ECB4 | |||||
| Winter 2021 | Spring 2022 | Jan. 2022 | Apr. 2022 | Dec. 2021 | Jun. 2022 | Mar. 2022 | Jun 2022 | |
| Euro area | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Belgium | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | |||
| Germany | 3.6 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | ||
| Estonia | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | |||
| Ireland | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 4.8 | |||
| Greece | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | |||
| Spain | 5.6 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.1 | ||
| France | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | ||
| Italy | 4.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | ||
| Cyprus | 4.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | |||||
| Latvia | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | |||
| Lithuania | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | |||
| Luxembourg | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 2.9 | |||
| Malta | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | |||||
| Netherlands | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | ||
| Austria | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 3.6 | |||
| Portugal | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | |||
| Slovenia | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.6 | |||
| Slovakia | 5.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 2.3 | |||
| Finland | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | |||
|
1
European Commission Spring 2022 Economic Forecast
2
IMF World Economic Outlook April 2022
3
OECD Economic Outlook June 2022
|
||||||||
| Comparison of inflation forecasts for the euro area | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Commission1 | IMF2 | OECD3 | ECB4 | |||||
| Winter 2021 | Spring 2022 | Oct. 2022 | Apr. 2022 | Dec. 2021 | Jun. 2022 | Mar. 2022 | Jun 2022 | |
| Euro area | 3.5 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 6.8 |
| Belgium | 4.3 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 9.0 | ||
| Germany | 3.7 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 7.2 | ||
| Estonia | 6.1 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 11.9 | 3.2 | 14.5 | ||
| Ireland | 4.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 6.6 | ||
| Greece | 3.1 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 8.8 | ||
| Spain | 3.6 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 8.1 | ||
| France | 2.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 5.2 | ||
| Italy | 3.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 6.3 | ||
| Cyprus | 2.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 5.3 | ||||
| Latvia | 5.9 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 2.7 | 13.3 | ||
| Lithuania | 6.7 | 12.5 | 2.8 | 13.3 | 2.5 | 15.6 | ||
| Luxembourg | 3.8 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Malta | 2.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 4.7 | ||||
| Netherlands | 4.0 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 9.2 | ||
| Austria | 3.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 6.7 | ||
| Portugal | 2.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 6.3 | ||
| Slovenia | 3.7 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 7.6 | ||
| Slovakia | 6.4 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 10.8 | ||
| Finland | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 6.2 | ||
|
1
European Commission Spring 2022 Economic Forecast
2
IMF World Economic Outlook April 2022
3
OECD Economic Outlook June 2022
|
||||||||
| Comparison of real GDP growth forecasts, euro area | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Commission1 | IMF2 | OECD3 | ECB4 | |||||
| Winter 2021 | Spring 2022 | Jan. 2022 | Apr. 2022 | Dec. 2021 | Jun. 2022 | Mar. 2022 | Jun 2022 | |
| Euro area | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Belgium | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | |||
| Germany | 3.6 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | ||
| Estonia | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | |||
| Ireland | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 4.8 | |||
| Greece | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | |||
| Spain | 5.6 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.1 | ||
| France | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | ||
| Italy | 4.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | ||
| Cyprus | 4.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | |||||
| Latvia | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | |||
| Lithuania | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | |||
| Luxembourg | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 2.9 | |||
| Malta | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | |||||
| Netherlands | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | ||
| Austria | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 3.6 | |||
| Portugal | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | |||
| Slovenia | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.6 | |||
| Slovakia | 5.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 2.3 | |||
| Finland | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | |||
|
1
European Commission Spring 2022 Economic Forecast
2
IMF World Economic Outlook April 2022
3
OECD Economic Outlook June 2022
|
||||||||
| Comparison of inflation forecasts, euro area | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Commission1 | IMF2 | OECD3 | ECB4 | |||||
| Winter 2021 | Spring 2022 | Oct. 2022 | Apr. 2022 | Dec. 2021 | Jun. 2022 | Mar. 2022 | Jun 2022 | |
| Euro area | 3.5 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 6.8 |
| Belgium | 4.3 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 9.0 | ||
| Germany | 3.7 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 7.2 | ||
| Estonia | 6.1 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 11.9 | 3.2 | 14.5 | ||
| Ireland | 4.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 6.6 | ||
| Greece | 3.1 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 8.8 | ||
| Spain | 3.6 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 8.1 | ||
| France | 2.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 5.2 | ||
| Italy | 3.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 6.3 | ||
| Cyprus | 2.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 5.3 | ||||
| Latvia | 5.9 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 2.7 | 13.3 | ||
| Lithuania | 6.7 | 12.5 | 2.8 | 13.3 | 2.5 | 15.6 | ||
| Luxembourg | 3.8 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Malta | 2.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 4.7 | ||||
| Netherlands | 4.0 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 9.2 | ||
| Austria | 3.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 6.7 | ||
| Portugal | 2.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 6.3 | ||
| Slovenia | 3.7 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 7.6 | ||
| Slovakia | 6.4 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 10.8 | ||
| Finland | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 6.2 | ||
|
1
European Commission Spring 2022 Economic Forecast
2
IMF World Economic Outlook April 2022
3
OECD Economic Outlook June 2022
|
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European Commission: Despite entering the year on a weak note, the outlook for the EU economy before the outbreak of the war was for a prolonged and robust expansionary phase. The pandemic situation was improving, while most of the headwinds posed by logistic and supply bottlenecks and pressures on the price of energy and other commodities were expected to fade in the course of this year. Economic activity would continue to be supported by an improving labour market, large accumulated savings, favourable financing conditions and the deployment of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). The war has changed the picture, by bringing renewed disruptions in global supply, fuelling further commodity price pressures and heightening uncertainty. The EU is first in line among advanced economies to take a hit, due to its geographical proximity to Russia and Ukraine, heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, especially from Russia, and high integration in global value chains. Large inflows of people fleeing the war – as many as 5 million in the first 10 weeks following the invasion – pose further organisational and coordination challenges for the EU.
IMF: Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January. In many countries, inflation has become a central concern; fuel and food prices have increased rapidly. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022. Although many parts of the world appear to be moving past the acute phase of the COVID-19 crisis, deaths remain high, especially among the unvaccinated. Moreover, recent lockdowns in key manufacturing and trade hubs in China will likely compound supply disruptions elsewhere.
OECD: The euro area aggregate includes OECD member countries (Cyprus and Malta are excluded from the euro area aggregate as they are not members of OECD). Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world economy was on track for a strong, albeit uneven, recovery from COVID-19. The conflict in Ukraine and the supply-chain disruptions exacerbated by shutdowns in China due to the zero-COVID policy are dealing a serious blow to the recovery. Countries worldwide are being hit by higher commodity prices, which add to inflationary pressures and curb real incomes and spending, further dampening the recovery.
ECB: Cut-off date: The June and December projections only include information on the outlook for individual euro area countries. Given the high uncertainty surrounding the outlook, the projections are complemented by a downside scenario that reflects the possibility of a severe disruption to European energy supplies, leading to further spikes in energy prices and production cuts. Compared with the March 2022 projections, the technical assumptions include significantly higher interest rates, higher oil, gas and non-oil energy commodity prices, and a weaker euro. The technical assumptions about interest rates and commodity prices are based on market expectations with a cut-off date of 17 May 2022. Business investment is expected to be dampened in the short term by the war of aggression against Ukraine, but is expected to recover once geopolitical tensions decline, supply bottlenecks ease and NGEU funds are disbursed.