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Bulgaria

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Producer prices in industry

National Reference Metadata in Euro SDMX Metadata Structure (ESMS)

Compiling agency: National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria

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Three Producer Price Indices (PPI) are calculated:

  • Total producer price index
  • Producer price index on the domestic market
  • Producer price index on the non-domestic market

Producer Price Index is one of the main short-term business indicators; it is regarded as one of the important measures of the economic situation in the country. Indices for particular economic activity measure the average change in the prices of industrial products, which are produced and sold by Bulgarian enterprises. This is done on the bases of constant sample of groups of products, produced by the activity and sold on the domestic market or directly exported on the non-domestic market and that sample is representative for total industrial production.

The sources of information are two monthly surveys: 

  • Survey on ‘Producer price indices on domestic market’;
  • Survey on ‘Producer price indices on non-domestic market’.
11 June 2024

The Producer Price Indices measure the monthly change in prices of industrial products produced by Bulgarian enterprises and sold on the domestic market or on non-domestic market.
The producer price is the ex-factory price and it includes discounts and other reductions. Excise duties and VAT are excluded. In most cases prices correspond to the prices stated at the moment of the contract.
Each specific product is precisely described when first selected and is very carefully identified each month when its price is reported. The products are specified with all price-determining characteristics: (brand, content, material used, nature of the customer). When taking into account discounts, reporting units are asked to specify also the quantity, in order not to have fluctuations due to changes in customer's prices.
The producer price indices measure the average of the actual prices received for a fixed basket of products that remains the same from one month to the next and also it attempts to take account of changes in quality by means of price changes. The surveyed prices take account of changes in quality that can be caused by a change in either the physical characteristics of a product or a change in the transaction characteristics.

Prices have to be reported on a fixed date around the 15th day of the reference month.

Legal unit (considered as enterprise) is both a reporting and observation unit.

The frame for identifying observation units for the population is the PRODCOM survey, which covers exhaustively all non-financial enterprises manufacturing industrial commodities and/or rendering industrial services with a specified threshold of receipts from sales of industrial production and industrial services. The sample model ensures 90% coverage of sold production in terms of value at the national level for each NACE Rev.2 class.

The number of units in the population of interest (PRODCOM survey) encompasses about 29 000 units.

All regions of Bulgaria are covered.

The 15th day of each month.

PPI (domestic and non-domestic market) satisfies the principle of accuracy as it describes development of producer prices.

The data are generally considered to be final at first released, there are no estimates produced or published and PPIs are not subject to revision.

Sampling error is not measured due to complexity of price indices and due to the use of non-probability sampling.

There were negligible non-sampling errors concerning coverage, measurement and processing errors.
Most of measurement errors are detected and corrected through the logical and arithmetical controls of the Information system “Business cycles” (Online Information system for data collection, editing and processing of the STS information).

Response rate is near to 100%. In most of the cases missing prices are replaced using relevant techniques.

Indices (%)

Treatment of missing prices:

Prices for temporarily missing products are handled by one of following methods: (1) asking the enterprise to estimate the missing price, (2) imputing the missing price by the price change for the prices that are available from the same enterprise from the same PRODCOM group (3) imputing the missing price by the price change for a particular comparable product from similar enterprise, (4) imputing the missing price by the price change for the prices that are available in the elementary aggregates, or (5) repeating the last reported price.

When a specific product subject to price monitoring, stop producing, is replaced with a new product from the same product group, which will replace approximately the oldest product on the market. The replacement of specifications basely is made through the chain of elementary indices of the old and of the replaced products.

Adjustment for seasonal products: When selecting the product samples, it is ensured that there are some price data available for each month of the year. This is achieved through working closely with respondents. When the price for a particular seasonal specification is not available, an imputation is made using the short-term price change from a matched sample of specifications from the same product group or enterprise.

The type of index used is a Laspeyres index.

Calculation of the producer price indices on domestic and on non-domestic market

Producer price indices are base weighted (Laspeyres) indices - that is to say they are weighted according to the turnover in the base year, currently 2021. After specification’s price collection from the enterprises, elementary indices (price relatives) are calculated for each specification (price relative – specification price in the current month divided by average price of that specification in the base year). After that price relatives are weighted with sales structure in the base year.

Producer price indices at different levels of aggregation are calculated from successive aggregations in which each level of aggregation uses the arithmetic mean of indices at the level below, duly weighted with sales structure in the base year following the structure of the NACE.Rev.2.

In the weighting system, there are two categories of weights, which depend on the level of aggregation:

  • At group level – 3-th digit of NACE.BG-2008 indices are calculated as price relatives are weighted with sales structure on the domestic or on the non-domestic market by PRODCOM groups. These weights are received from annual PRODCOM survey in the base year.
  • Producer price index calculation at higher levels of aggregation is base weighted Laspeyres indices that is to say they are weighted according to the turnover structure on the domestic and on non-domestic market in the base year.

Calculation of Total Producer Price Index

Total producer price index is calculated from Producer price index on the domestic market and Producer price index on the non-domestic market weighted with the turnover structure on domestic and on non-domestic market to the total value of turnover at each level of aggregation.

Information for calculation of Producer price indices in industry is received on the bases of two monthly surveys on producer prices of industrial products, sold on domestic market and on industrial products sold on non-domestic market. The aim of Producer price surveys is: (1) To compare prices of specific products with equal quality in the two surveyed time periods; (2) In the case of quality change of the surveyed specific products this quality change to be taken into account.

Data collection is based on a representative sample of products.

According to the methodology the sampling method used for domestic producer price index compilation involves a three stage sampling process: first PRODCOM groups are selected, as a second step - reporting units are selected and then specific products (transactions) are selected. The sample method used is probability proportional to size.

Producer price indices on domestic market. The sampling method used involves a three stage sampling process: first PRODCOM groups, second reporting units and then specific products (transactions) are sampled.

The sample of product groups is based on the annual survey of production and sales of industrial products - the PRODCOM survey. A sample of reporting is made for each of the selected PRODCOM groups. These units (enterprises) will participate in the price survey. A probabilistic method - proportional to the size is used to ensure sufficient coverage. The number of the units selected in the sample depends on the degree of industrial concentration of the enterprises from each sampled PRODCOM group.

For each enterprise with the corresponding PRODCOM group that was sampled for price survey, the Price index estimation is based on the sample of specific product (specifications). For each enterprise the selected PRODCOM product groups are desegregated into group of product that show equal price changes and from these groups representative specification (specific products) are selected. The selected specifications reflect in the best way the price changes of the whole group.  At that stage of sampling so called ‘purposive sampling’ or ‘expert choice’ is applied. The experts from the selected enterprises choose the price quotations, in other words products with the highest sales volume are selected and long presence on the market.

Producer Price Indices on Non-domestic Market. The sampling technique applied has two stages – sample of enterprises, and sample of representative products/transactions.

The sample of enterprises is made on the bases of annual information on receipts of export sales of industrial enterprises.  Enterprises with significant amount of export sales are selected for price survey.

The basic concepts relating to determination of priced products relating to export prices are the same as those applying to domestic prices.

For Domestic producer prices survey the sample includes 1600 industrial enterprises 920 PRODCOM groups and 7000 specific products (specifications).

For Non-domestic producer prices survey the sample includes 630 industrial enterprises (direct exporters of industrial products) 550 PRODCOM groups and 2500 specific products (specifications).

Monthly

The Producer price indices (Total PPI, PPI on domestic market and PPI on non-domestic market) are released 30 days after the end of the reference month according to the Release calendar posted on the NSI website.

Producer price indices in industry are representative for the whole country; they are not representative for the regions of the country.

To calculate the producer price indices on the domestic and on the non-domestic market NSI applies methodology, which is in line with the international standards.

The monthly indices are presented as time series. Indices are fully comparable over time.