Reference metadata describe statistical concepts and methodologies used for the collection and generation of data. They provide information on data quality and, since they are strongly content-oriented, assist users in interpreting the data. Reference metadata, unlike structural metadata, can be decoupled from the data.
[4D1_F1] Crosscutting social indicators; Coordination
1.3. Contact name
Confidential because of GDPR
1.4. Contact person function
Confidential because of GDPR
1.5. Contact mail address
Eurostat - the statistical office of the European Union.
5, Rue Alphonse Weicker
L-2721 Luxembourg
1.6. Contact email address
Confidential because of GDPR
1.7. Contact phone number
Confidential because of GDPR
1.8. Contact fax number
Confidential because of GDPR
2.1. Metadata last certified
14 July 2026
2.2. Metadata last posted
14 July 2026
2.3. Metadata last update
14 July 2026
3.1. Data description
EUROPOP2025 represents Eurostat’s most recent long-term population projections, produced at both national and subnational levels for the period from 2025 to 2100. The subnational projections at NUTS 3 level cover all 27 EU Member States; for Luxembourg and Cyprus, the subnational figures are identical to the national projections because each country has only one NUTS 3 region. National-level data were produced by Eurostat, while subnational data were produced by the Joint Research Centre with support from Eurostat. These regional projections are based on population and vital events data up to 2024 and follow the NUTS 2024 classification, which divides the economic territories of the 27 countries into 1165 geographical statistical units at NUTS level 3. They should be understood as a regional breakdown of the broader national projections, aligned with the general assumption of partial demographic convergence, rather than as a separate and independent set of projections.
The projections are driven by the assumption of partial convergence: for national projections, this assumption is driven by the idea that socio-economic differences between EU countries will gradually diminish over the very long term, and that therefore, demographic factors will also partially converge. As a result, key demographic indicators are expected to move towards convergence across countries, although not to the point of becoming fully identical. For subnational projections, the assumption of partial convergence also is applied to regions within each individual country.
The datasets at subnational level consist of the projected baseline population projections published by 5-year time periods:
Projected population on 1 January by age group and sex (5-year age groups)
Assumptions on the total fertility rate (5-year averages)
Projected life expectancy at birth by sex (5-year averages)
Total numbers of the projected live births, deaths and assumptions on net migration (5-year aggregates)
Projected population structure indicators, including proportions of broad age groups in the total population, age dependency ratios, and median ages of the population (for men and women)
3.2. Classification system
The territorial breakdown of the countries follows the (EU) Regulation No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics.
The territorial breakdown at subnational level 3 follows the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/674, known as NUTS-2024 classification (the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics).
3.3. Coverage - sector
Demography.
3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions
Subnational population projections for EUROPOP2025 are produced by 5-year age groups and published for 5-year intervals. Population counts as well as population indicators always refer to the 1 January of the year under which they are published. Life events (births, deaths) and migration are published as 5-year aggregates of the year under which they are published, as well as the following 4 years. So, the births published under 2025 refer to the total number of births that have occured in the period 2025-2029. The total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth are published as 5-year averages of the year under which they are published, as well as the following 4 years. Therefore, the total fertiltiy rate published under 2025 refers to the average rate for the period 2025 - 2029.
Base population on 1 January 2025 refers to the population of the country for the end of reference year 2024, as reported to Eurostat by the national statistical authorities in the annual demographic data collection.
The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman would have during her lifetime if, at each age, she experienced the fertility rates currently observed for that age group and survived throughout her reproductive years.
Life expectancy at birth represents the average number of years of life that a newborn is expected to live, assuming that the mortality conditions remain constant.
Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.
Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is calculated as the number of persons in specific age groups — children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years), elderly persons (65 years and over), and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) — divided by the total population, expressed as percentage.
Young age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between number of young persons (0-14 or 0-19 years old) divided by the number of persons conventionally considered of working-age (15-64 or 20-64 years old). Data available in the online table (proj_25rpind) are:
1st variant: The young-age dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-14 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 15-64;
3rd variant: The young-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-19 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 20-64.
Old age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 and over (the elderly population) and the number of persons aged 15-64 (the conventionally working-age population). It is usually expressed as the number of elderly persons per 100 working-age persons. Data available in the online table (proj_25rpind) are:
1st variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 15-64 years;
3rd variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 20-64 years.
Total age dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young and old age dependency ratios.
3.5. Statistical unit
Statistical unit used is 'person' for data related to population, net migration, and vital events (live births and deaths).
3.6. Statistical population
Statistical population is total population on 1 January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.
3.7. Reference area
EU Members States
3.8. Coverage - Time
EUROPOP2025 covers the time horizon from 2025 to 2100.
3.9. Base period
The base period is the reference year 2024, the latest calendar year for which detailed demographic and migration data were transmitted to Eurostat by the National Statistical Authorities.
The measurement unit varies depending on the online tables, as follows:
'Person' is used for data related to projected population and net migration;
'Number' is used for data concerning total fertility rate;
'Year' is used for data on life expectancy at birth and median age.
EUROPOP2025 population projections at regional level covers the time horizon from 2025 to 2100.
6.1. Institutional Mandate - legal acts and other agreements
The population projections at national level are produced in accordance with the Council conclusions of 14 May 2024 on the fiscal sustainability challenges arising from ageing.
6.2. Institutional Mandate - data sharing
Not applicable.
7.1. Confidentiality - policy
Not applicable.
7.2. Confidentiality - data treatment
Not applicable.
8.1. Release calendar
June 2026 - dissemination of the baseline projections.
General information related to population projections can be found on the Eurostat website under the "Population projections" section within the "Population and social conditions" domain.
10.4. Dissemination format - microdata access
Not applicable.
10.5. Dissemination format - other
Not applicable.
10.6. Documentation on methodology
The methodology for national population projections in the EU is detailed in the Population projections in the EU - methodology article, which can be found on the Eurostat website within the "Statistics Explained" section.
The adapted methodology for subnational population projections will be made available in the Annex.
10.7. Quality management - documentation
Not applicable.
11.1. Quality assurance
Not applicable.
11.2. Quality management - assessment
Not applicable.
12.1. Relevance - User Needs
Population projections help the public, statisticians, and policymakers in understanding the population dynamics. They contribute to informed debates on demographic and societal changes.
12.2. Relevance - User Satisfaction
Not applicable.
12.3. Completeness
Not applicable.
13.1. Accuracy - overall
Not applicable.
13.2. Sampling error
Not applicable.
13.3. Non-sampling error
Not applicable.
14.1. Timeliness
Not applicable.
14.2. Punctuality
Not applicable.
15.1. Comparability - geographical
Not applicable.
15.2. Comparability - over time
Not applicable.
15.3. Coherence - cross domain
Not applicable.
15.4. Coherence - internal
Not applicable.
Not applicable.
17.1. Data revision - policy
The population projection datasets specific to a base-year remain unchanged after their dissemination.
17.2. Data revision - practice
The population projections datasets specific to a base-year remain unchanged after their dissemination. The latest relevant input data available on the Eurostat website are considered during the production of population projections. Any revisions to the input data following the dissemination of population projections datasets are not considered for updating the projections data already released. Therefore, each population projections exercise takes into account the latest data published on the Eurostat website, as well as nowcast data transmitted by national statistical institutes for projection purposes.
EUROPOP2025 represents Eurostat’s most recent long-term population projections, produced at both national and subnational levels for the period from 2025 to 2100. The subnational projections at NUTS 3 level cover all 27 EU Member States; for Luxembourg and Cyprus, the subnational figures are identical to the national projections because each country has only one NUTS 3 region. National-level data were produced by Eurostat, while subnational data were produced by the Joint Research Centre with support from Eurostat. These regional projections are based on population and vital events data up to 2024 and follow the NUTS 2024 classification, which divides the economic territories of the 27 countries into 1165 geographical statistical units at NUTS level 3. They should be understood as a regional breakdown of the broader national projections, aligned with the general assumption of partial demographic convergence, rather than as a separate and independent set of projections.
The projections are driven by the assumption of partial convergence: for national projections, this assumption is driven by the idea that socio-economic differences between EU countries will gradually diminish over the very long term, and that therefore, demographic factors will also partially converge. As a result, key demographic indicators are expected to move towards convergence across countries, although not to the point of becoming fully identical. For subnational projections, the assumption of partial convergence also is applied to regions within each individual country.
The datasets at subnational level consist of the projected baseline population projections published by 5-year time periods:
Projected population on 1 January by age group and sex (5-year age groups)
Assumptions on the total fertility rate (5-year averages)
Projected life expectancy at birth by sex (5-year averages)
Total numbers of the projected live births, deaths and assumptions on net migration (5-year aggregates)
Projected population structure indicators, including proportions of broad age groups in the total population, age dependency ratios, and median ages of the population (for men and women)
14 July 2026
Subnational population projections for EUROPOP2025 are produced by 5-year age groups and published for 5-year intervals. Population counts as well as population indicators always refer to the 1 January of the year under which they are published. Life events (births, deaths) and migration are published as 5-year aggregates of the year under which they are published, as well as the following 4 years. So, the births published under 2025 refer to the total number of births that have occured in the period 2025-2029. The total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth are published as 5-year averages of the year under which they are published, as well as the following 4 years. Therefore, the total fertiltiy rate published under 2025 refers to the average rate for the period 2025 - 2029.
Base population on 1 January 2025 refers to the population of the country for the end of reference year 2024, as reported to Eurostat by the national statistical authorities in the annual demographic data collection.
The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman would have during her lifetime if, at each age, she experienced the fertility rates currently observed for that age group and survived throughout her reproductive years.
Life expectancy at birth represents the average number of years of life that a newborn is expected to live, assuming that the mortality conditions remain constant.
Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.
Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is calculated as the number of persons in specific age groups — children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years), elderly persons (65 years and over), and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) — divided by the total population, expressed as percentage.
Young age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between number of young persons (0-14 or 0-19 years old) divided by the number of persons conventionally considered of working-age (15-64 or 20-64 years old). Data available in the online table (proj_25rpind) are:
1st variant: The young-age dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-14 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 15-64;
3rd variant: The young-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-19 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 20-64.
Old age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 and over (the elderly population) and the number of persons aged 15-64 (the conventionally working-age population). It is usually expressed as the number of elderly persons per 100 working-age persons. Data available in the online table (proj_25rpind) are:
1st variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 15-64 years;
3rd variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 20-64 years.
Total age dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young and old age dependency ratios.
Statistical unit used is 'person' for data related to population, net migration, and vital events (live births and deaths).
Statistical population is total population on 1 January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.
EU Members States
EUROPOP2025 population projections at regional level covers the time horizon from 2025 to 2100.
Not applicable.
The measurement unit varies depending on the online tables, as follows:
'Person' is used for data related to projected population and net migration;
'Number' is used for data concerning total fertility rate;
'Year' is used for data on life expectancy at birth and median age.
