Reference metadata describe statistical concepts and methodologies used for the collection and generation of data. They provide information on data quality and, since they are strongly content-oriented, assist users in interpreting the data. Reference metadata, unlike structural metadata, can be decoupled from the data.
[4D1_F1] Crosscutting social indicators; Coordination
1.3. Contact name
Confidential because of GDPR
1.4. Contact person function
Confidential because of GDPR
1.5. Contact mail address
Eurostat - the statistical office of the European Union.
5, Rue Alphonse Weicker
L-2721 Luxembourg
1.6. Contact email address
Confidential because of GDPR
1.7. Contact phone number
Confidential because of GDPR
1.8. Contact fax number
Confidential because of GDPR
2.1. Metadata last certified
7 July 2026
2.2. Metadata last posted
7 July 2026
2.3. Metadata last update
7 July 2026
3.1. Data description
EUROPOP2025 are the latest Eurostat long-term population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland), covering the time horizon from 2025 to 2100. Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. They are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).
The datasets consist of the baseline population projections and six sensitivity tests, as follows:
No migration – net migration is assumed to be zero for every year between 2026 and 2100.
Lower migration – net migration is assumed to be lower, with the levels of non-EU immigration flows reduced by 33% annually from 2026 to 2100.
Higher migration – net migration is assumed to be higher, with the levels of non-EU immigration flows increased by 33% annually from 2026 to 2100.
Lower fertility – fertility rates are assumed to be 20% lower from 2034 (mid-term year) until 2100. For 2025 and 2026, the rates align with nowcast values and remain unchanged from baseline assumptions. Between 2027–2034, intermediate values are calculated by linear interpolation.
Lower mortality – mortality rates are assumed to decline, resulting in a two-year increase in life expectancy at birth by 2080 compared to baseline assumptions.
Delayed convergence – net migration is assumed to converge more slowly considering two combined modifications to the baseline migration model:
The mid-term interpolation year is delayed to 2040, extending country-specific migration trends before converging towards common EU rates and levels.
The replacement migration rate in the working-age feedback mechanism is increased from 10% to 25%, increasing the immigration flows in response to working-age population shrinkage.
In each sensitivity test, the assumptions for the year 2025 were maintained as in the baseline projections. This is because, for that year, there is a combination of observed data (i.e. beneficiaries on temporary protections at the end of December 2025) and forecasting data provided by the national statistical authorities for projections purposes.
Data are available by single-year time interval as detailed below:
Projected population on 1 January by age and sex
Assumptions on age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and net migration levels
Projected life expectancy by age and sex
Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths
Projected population structure indicators, including proportions of broad age groups in the total population, age dependency ratios, and median ages of total population, men and women.
3.2. Classification system
The territorial breakdown of the countries follows the (EU) Regulation No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics.
3.3. Coverage - sector
Demography.
3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions
EUROPOP2025
Base population on 1 January 2025 refers to the population of the country for the reference year 2024, as reported to Eurostat by the national statistical authorities in the annual demographic data collection.
The age-specific fertility rate is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between ages x and x+1 during onecalendar year.
The age-specific mortality rateis defined as the ratio between the number of deaths between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived in the age interval x and x+1 duringone calendar year.
Life expectancy at age x represents the average number of additional years of life that a survivor to age x will live beyond the age x, assuming the mortality conditions remain constant.
Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.
Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is calculated as the number of persons in specific age groups — children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years), elderly persons (65 years and over), and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) — divided by the total population, expressed as percentage.
Young age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between number of young persons (0-14 or 0-19 years old) divided by the number of persons conventionally considered of working-age (15-64 or 20-64 years old). Data available in the online table (proj_25ndbi) are:
1st variant: The young-age dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-14 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 15-64;
3rd variant: The young-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-19 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 20-64.
Old age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 and over (the elderly population) and the number of persons aged 15-64 (the conventionally working-age population). It is usually expressed as the number of elderly persons per 100 working-age persons. Data available in the online table (proj_25ndbi) are:
1st variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 15-64 years;
3rd variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 20-64 years.
Total age dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young and old age dependency ratios.
3.5. Statistical unit
Statistical unit used is 'person' for data related to population, net migration, and vital events (live births and deaths).
3.6. Statistical population
Statistical population is total population on 1 January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.
3.7. Reference area
EU Members States and three EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
3.8. Coverage - Time
EUROPOP2025 covers the time horizon from 2025 to 2100.
3.9. Base period
The base period is the reference year 2024, the latest calendar year for which detailed demographic and migration data were transmitted to Eurostat by the National Statistical Authorities.
The measurement unit used varies depending on the online tables, as follows:
'Person' is used for all data related to projected population and net migration;
'Number' is used for data concerning age-specific fertility rates, and age-specific mortality rates;
'Year' is used for data on life expectancy and median age.
EUROPOP2025 population projections at national level covers the time horizon from 2025 to 2100.
6.1. Institutional Mandate - legal acts and other agreements
The information related to population projections can be found on the Eurostat website under the "Population projections" section within the "Population and social conditions" domain.
10.4. Dissemination format - microdata access
Not applicable.
10.5. Dissemination format - other
Not applicable.
10.6. Documentation on methodology
The methodology for population projections in the EU is detailed in the Population projections in the EU - methodology article, which can be found on the Eurostat website within the "Statistics Explained" section.
10.7. Quality management - documentation
Not applicable.
11.1. Quality assurance
Not applicable.
11.2. Quality management - assessment
Not applicable.
12.1. Relevance - User Needs
Population projections help the public, statisticians, and policymakers in understanding the population dynamics. They contribute to informed debates on demographic and societal changes.
12.2. Relevance - User Satisfaction
Not applicable.
12.3. Completeness
Not applicable.
13.1. Accuracy - overall
Not applicable.
13.2. Sampling error
Not applicable.
13.3. Non-sampling error
Not applicable.
14.1. Timeliness
Not applicable.
14.2. Punctuality
Not applicable.
15.1. Comparability - geographical
Not applicable.
15.2. Comparability - over time
Not applicable.
15.3. Coherence - cross domain
Not applicable.
15.4. Coherence - internal
Not applicable.
Not applicable.
17.1. Data revision - policy
The population projection datasets specific to a base-year remain unchanged after their dissemination.
17.2. Data revision - practice
The population projections datasets specific to a base-year remain unchanged after their dissemination. The latest relevant input data available on the Eurostat website are considered during the production of population projections. Any revisions to the input data following the dissemination of population projections datasets are not considered for updating the projections data already released. Therefore, each population projections exercise takes into account the latest data published on the Eurostat website, as well as nowcast data transmitted by national statistical institutes for projection purposes.
The assumptions underlying the EUROPOP2025 population projections were based on data downloaded from the Eurostat website on 8 April 2026. The projected populations were produced using these assumptions. Any data revisions published after that date were not incorporated into the population projections.
EUROPOP2025 are the latest Eurostat long-term population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland), covering the time horizon from 2025 to 2100. Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. They are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).
The datasets consist of the baseline population projections and six sensitivity tests, as follows:
No migration – net migration is assumed to be zero for every year between 2026 and 2100.
Lower migration – net migration is assumed to be lower, with the levels of non-EU immigration flows reduced by 33% annually from 2026 to 2100.
Higher migration – net migration is assumed to be higher, with the levels of non-EU immigration flows increased by 33% annually from 2026 to 2100.
Lower fertility – fertility rates are assumed to be 20% lower from 2034 (mid-term year) until 2100. For 2025 and 2026, the rates align with nowcast values and remain unchanged from baseline assumptions. Between 2027–2034, intermediate values are calculated by linear interpolation.
Lower mortality – mortality rates are assumed to decline, resulting in a two-year increase in life expectancy at birth by 2080 compared to baseline assumptions.
Delayed convergence – net migration is assumed to converge more slowly considering two combined modifications to the baseline migration model:
The mid-term interpolation year is delayed to 2040, extending country-specific migration trends before converging towards common EU rates and levels.
The replacement migration rate in the working-age feedback mechanism is increased from 10% to 25%, increasing the immigration flows in response to working-age population shrinkage.
In each sensitivity test, the assumptions for the year 2025 were maintained as in the baseline projections. This is because, for that year, there is a combination of observed data (i.e. beneficiaries on temporary protections at the end of December 2025) and forecasting data provided by the national statistical authorities for projections purposes.
Data are available by single-year time interval as detailed below:
Projected population on 1 January by age and sex
Assumptions on age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and net migration levels
Projected life expectancy by age and sex
Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths
Projected population structure indicators, including proportions of broad age groups in the total population, age dependency ratios, and median ages of total population, men and women.
7 July 2026
EUROPOP2025
Base population on 1 January 2025 refers to the population of the country for the reference year 2024, as reported to Eurostat by the national statistical authorities in the annual demographic data collection.
The age-specific fertility rate is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between ages x and x+1 during onecalendar year.
The age-specific mortality rateis defined as the ratio between the number of deaths between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived in the age interval x and x+1 duringone calendar year.
Life expectancy at age x represents the average number of additional years of life that a survivor to age x will live beyond the age x, assuming the mortality conditions remain constant.
Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.
Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is calculated as the number of persons in specific age groups — children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years), elderly persons (65 years and over), and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) — divided by the total population, expressed as percentage.
Young age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between number of young persons (0-14 or 0-19 years old) divided by the number of persons conventionally considered of working-age (15-64 or 20-64 years old). Data available in the online table (proj_25ndbi) are:
1st variant: The young-age dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-14 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 15-64;
3rd variant: The young-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-19 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 20-64.
Old age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 and over (the elderly population) and the number of persons aged 15-64 (the conventionally working-age population). It is usually expressed as the number of elderly persons per 100 working-age persons. Data available in the online table (proj_25ndbi) are:
1st variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 15-64 years;
3rd variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 20-64 years.
Total age dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young and old age dependency ratios.
Statistical unit used is 'person' for data related to population, net migration, and vital events (live births and deaths).
Statistical population is total population on 1 January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.
EU Members States and three EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
EUROPOP2025 population projections at national level covers the time horizon from 2025 to 2100.
Not applicable.
The measurement unit used varies depending on the online tables, as follows:
'Person' is used for all data related to projected population and net migration;
'Number' is used for data concerning age-specific fertility rates, and age-specific mortality rates;
'Year' is used for data on life expectancy and median age.
