The European Labour market in the
light of demographic change
Introduction
Labour market conditions are mainly affected by the overall development of the economy. However, going into the next millennium, labour market performance is increasingly challenged by the demographic shift. Over the next 30 years, the dynamics of population ageing will have important implications on the workforce, particularly on it's composition.
This brief quantitative analysis is a contribution to improving the understanding of future dynamics of the labour market, which is not addressed by short-term economic analyses. The paper aims at identifying what lies behind the aggregate national figures concerning the labour market performance. In fact, aggregate figures often mask critical information on the gender and age structure of the working age population and the labour force as well as the importance of regional disparities in relation to employment performance. Taking account of these dimensions may prove very helpful for the policy maker seeking to define adequate policy priorities and objectives.
The reliability of this analysis is, of course, strongly dependent on the demographic and economic scenarios employed which are associated with a strong element of uncertainty. Nevertheless, given the strength of the trends observed, it can provide some clear insight on the challenges ahead and facilitate the comparability among different situations observed across the European Union.
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