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The 2012 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies

Author(s): European Commission

The 2012 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologiespdf(3 MB) Choose translations of the previous link 

This report details the underlying assumptions and projection methodologies to estimate the economic and budgetary impact of an ageing population over the long-term.

In 2010, the ECOFIN Council gave the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) a mandate to update its common exercise of age-related expenditure projections by the autumn of 2012 on the basis of a new population projection by Eurostat. The long-term age-related expenditure projections provide an indication of the timing and scale of changes in economic developments that could result from an ageing population in a ‘no-policy change’ scenario. The projections show where (in which countries), when, and to what extent ageing pressures will accelerate as the baby-boom generation retires and average life span in the EU continues to increase. Hence, the updated projections of age-related expenditure and the associated sustainability assessments will provide important insights on both the economic impact of ageing and the risks to the long-term sustainability of Member States’ public finances reflecting new economic environment, affected by a durable impact of the current crisis, and further reform effort by EU MS. This first report provides a description of underlying macroeconomic assumptions and projection methodologies of the age-related expenditure projections for all Member States. On the basis of these underlying assumptions and methodologies, age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers will be calculated and presented to the ECOFIN Council in May 2012.

(European Economy 4. September 2011. Brussels. 309pp. Tab. Graph. Ann. Bibliogr. free.)

JEL classification: J10,J11,J18,J21,J26,I0,O4,H55