|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
Spring forecast: EU economy slowly recovering from a protracted recession
Following the recession that marked 2012, the EU economy is expected to stabilise in the first half of 2013, and gradually return to growth in the second half of the year before gaining some traction in 2014. According to the spring forecast released on 3 May, annual GDP growth this year is forecast to contract 0.1% in the EU and 0.4% in the euro area. For 2014, economic activity is projected to expand by 1.4% in the EU and 1.2% in the euro area. External demand is set to be the main growth driver this year, but stronger private consumption and investment are expected to drive a modest, domestically sustained recovery next year. The recovery of economic activity is expected to be too slow to reduce joblessness, however. Unemployment is forecast to reach around 11% in the EU and 12% in the euro area in 2013, and to stabilise at these levels in 2014, while differences across Member States are expected to remain very large. This forecast remains based on the assumption that continued policy implementation will prevent a renewed intensification of the sovereign-debt crisis.
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
| In view of the protracted recession, we must do whatever it takes to overcome the unemployment crisis in Europe. The EU’s policy mix is focused on sustainable growth and job creation. Fiscal consolidation is continuing, but its pace is slowing down. In parallel, structural reforms must be intensified to unlock growth in Europe.
|
 |
Olli Rehn, Commission Vice-President for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro.
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Fellowship Initiative: independent scholars examine the future of EMU and economic growth perspectives for Europe
As part of its Fellowship Initiative, DG ECFIN has published a series of economic papers written by distinguished independent scholars. One set of this series addresses “The future of EMU” while another addresses “Economic growth perspectives for Europe”. In the case of EMU, scholars broadly accept the steps taken thus far to overhaul economic governance in the EU and recognise the need for a full banking union. Plans for fiscal union are more controversial, however. To most of the scholars looking at economic growth perspectives for Europe, productivity is the critical factor. Several scholars also discussed the potentially positive role of technology and knowledge-based capital investments. Improving productivity and ensuring the lasting correction of imbalances, however, will require competitiveness adjustments, improvement in the business environment and public sector reforms. Several scholars also noted the importance of equitable growth, both in order to preserve the European social model and in order to garner the popular support needed to implement reform measures.
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Task Force for Greece - Fourth Quarterly Report: Support for growth and jobs in Greece
The European Commission’s Task Force for Greece (TFGR) has presented its fourth quarterly report on technical assistance for Greece. The report released on 29 April notes the steady progress in helping the Greek authorities to implement a wide range of reforms agreed in the context of the economic adjustment programme for Greece and to maximise the use of EU Structural Funds. Major reforms include a review of the organisation of most Greek Ministries, the re-start of work on motorway concession projects, the promotion of key exports through the simplification of rules, and the launch of a mediation system to help people avoid lengthy and expensive court procedures. President Barroso established the Task Force on 20 July 2011, after consulting with the Greek Prime Minister, to provide technical assistance to Greece. The initiative was supported by the European Council, and the Task Force for Greece (TFGR) started its work in October 2011.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Commission opens consultation on the European System of Financial Supervision
On 26 April, the European Commission launched a consultation on the European System of Financial Supervision (ESFS). The ESFS consists of three European supervisory authorities – the European Banking Authority (EBA), the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA). The three European supervisory authorities and the European Systemic Risk Board began operations two years ago. Their main role is to upgrade the quality and consistency of national supervision, strengthen oversight of cross-border groups, establish a European single rule book for all financial market institutions, and to prevent and mitigate systemic risks to EU financial stability.The regulations establishing them include provisions for the Commission to review their structure and performance within the ESFS as well as the ESFS as a whole. The purpose of the consultation, therefore, is to gather feedback from citizens, organisations and public authorities to inform the Review. The consultation is open to all stakeholders, available in all EU official languages, and runs until 19 July.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
ECB lowers main interest rate to 0.50%
Meeting on 2 May in Bratislava, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to further lower its benchmark interest rates since the last change of July 2012. As of 8 May, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be lowered by 25 basis points to 0.50% and the rate on the marginal lending facility by 50 basis points to 1.00%. The rate on the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%. The ECB also decided to continue conducting its main refinancing operations (MROs) as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until 8 July 2014. Lastly, the Governing Council decided to start consultations with other European institutions on initiatives to promote a functioning market for asset-backed securities collateralised by loans to non-financial corporations.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
ECB launches new €5 banknote series with enhanced security features
A new €5 banknote, the first one in the Europa series, was put into circulation on 2 May 2013 in the euro area countries. The Europa series €5 banknote has benefited from advances in banknote technology since the first series was introduced over ten years ago. It includes new and enhanced security features. To mark the occasion, events were held in Bratislava, where the European Central Bank Governing Council was meeting, and at several other locations across Europe. The ECB’s website and the “new face of the euro” website have pictures and TV footage of the Bratislava event, as well as further information on the new banknote, including several videos highlighting its security features. The “Euro Cash Academy”, a pro-active way to learn about the new €5 and the other denominations, is also available on both of these websites and as a smartphone app – in 22 European Union languages.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Unemployment rates rise in euro area and EU
Unemployment rates have risen markedly in both the euro area and the EU compared with the same period last year. According to figures published on 30 April by Eurostat, the EU statistical office, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in the euro area was 12.1% in March 2013, up from 12.0% in the previous month and 11% in March 2012. The EU unemployment rate was 10.9%, stable compared with February, but up from 10.3% in March 2012. Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in 19 Member States and fell in eight, with the lowest unemployment rates recorded in Austria (4.7%), Germany (5.4%) and Luxembourg (5.7%), and the highest in Greece (27.2% in January), Spain (26.7%) and Portugal (17.5%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Deleveraging abating in emerging Europe amid regulatory and structural shifts, Vienna 2 Initiative report finds
On 2 May, the Vienna 2 Initiative’s Steering Committee published its latest Deleveraging Monitor. The Committee, chaired by Marek Belka, President of the National Bank of Poland, is composed of representatives from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), European Investment Bank (EIB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank Group and the European Commission, together with Italy, Romania, and Albania, representing home and host authorities respectively. The report notes that the second wave of funding reductions by western banks vis-à-vis Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe (CESEE) that started in mid-2011 is petering out. At the same time, cross-border lending to the CESEE countries has not bounced back, and private sector credit remains generally anemic in the region as a result. Overall, the risks of deleveraging becoming disorderly have receded, however. Separate additional suggestions highlight that in Europe's deeply integrated financial markets a geographically inclusive and fully-fledged banking union is in the interest of all stakeholders – both home and host authorities and banks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Member States' energy dependence: an indicator-based assessment. European Economy. Occasional Paper 145.
This paper assesses Member States’ energy dependence and vulnerability to energy price hikes and supply shortages by using a set of energy dependence indicators. The indicators focus on three dimensions of energy dependence: the security of energy supply, energy and carbon intensity, and the contribution of energy products to trade. The performance of each of the 27 EU Member States is analysed and compared along each of these three dimensions. This cross-country analysis is complemented by 17 country files for the Member States that may be considered most vulnerable from an energy dependence point of view.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs |
|
|
