The following scenarios were modelled:
This scenario corresponds to a world where existing policies related to energy supply and demand policies and targets, as well as legislated GHG policies and targets that are backed by supporting energy-sector policies, are enacted. No additional policies are considered compared to what had been legislated as of June 2022. Exogenous macroeconomic projections (GDP and population), with endogenously calculated energy prices and technological development specific to the POLES-JRC model, combine with the effect of enacted policies resulting in projections of the energy system and GHG emissions. As a consequence, this scenario may differ from energy and emissions projections from official national sources and international organisations. This scenario does not aim to reach stated policies or targets that have not been translated into law and accompanied by concrete action plans.
This scenario considers the policies of NDCs in the medium term and the LTSs in the longer term. This scenario assumes that the objectives in the NDCs (including conditional objectives) are reached in their relevant target year (2030 in most cases). To this end, carbon values and other regulatory instruments are put in place on top of the existing, legislated measures of the Reference Scenario. Beyond 2030, the objectives of the countries’ LTS, where they exist, are pursued; if the country has not announced an LTS, it is assumed that no additional decarbonisation effort is made, and carbon values, if any, are kept constant to their 2030 level. This scenario includes the net zero targets announced by many countries. See Annex 1 for a list of NDC and LTS objectives included in this scenario. The NDC-LTS scenario also considers decarbonisation proposals related to international aviation and maritime transportation sectors (international bunker fuels).
A decarbonisation scenario designed to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C Scenario. The scenario was designed with a global carbon budget over 2020-2100 (cumulated net CO2 emissions) of approximately 400 GtCO2, resulting in a 50% probability of not exceeding the 1.5°C temperature limit in 2100. A single global carbon price for all regions is used in this scenario, starting immediately (2022) and strongly increasing. Bottom-up policy drivers (such as capacity targets) from the NDC-LTS scenario are not included here, as this scenario is constructed based on the policy settings of the Reference Scenario. The global carbon price is the sole additional policy driver in this scenario. This scenario is therefore a stylised representations of an economically-efficient pathway to the temperature targets, as the uniform global carbon price ensures that emissions are reduced where abatement costs are lowest. This scenario does not consider financial transfers between countries to implement mitigation measures. The use of negative emissions technologies, including the land use sinks, is considerable (21 GtCO2/year in 2100); CO2 capture from combustion and CO2 direct air capture technologies are made available progressively beyond 2030 (<5 GtCO2/year in 2050). The mobilisation of biomass as an energy resource is relatively limited (remaining below 200 EJ/year for all years), in order to reflect the use of only sustainably-grown biomass. Within the above economic and technological constraints, the overshoot of the temperature target was kept low (at slightly above 1.7°C in 2050 in the 1.5°C Scenario).
The scenarios are produced with the same socio-economic assumptions and energy resources availability. Energy prices are the result of the interplay of energy supply and demand, and are thus scenario-dependent. Country- or region-level energy supply, trade, transformation and demand, as well as GHG emissions, are driven by income growth, energy prices and expected technological evolution, within the constraints defined by energy and climate policies. In sum, scenarios differ on the climate and energy policies that are included, with repercussions on the projections of the energy supply and demand system and GHG emissions.
| Europe | CIS | America | Africa | Middle East | Asia | Pacific OECD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | Russia | Argentina | Egypt | Iran | China | Australia |
| United Kingdom | Ukraine | Brazil | South Africa | Saudi Arabia | India | Japan |
| Rest of Europe | Rest CIS | Canada | Rest of North Africa | Turkey | Indonesia | South Korea |
| Chile | Rest Sub-saharan Africa | Rest Middle East | Malaysia | New Zealand | ||
| Mexico | Thailand | |||||
| USA | Vietnam | |||||
| Rest of Latin America | Rest of South Asia | |||||
| Rest of Asia and Pacific |
Energy consumption and related GHG emissions of international maritime and aviation bunkers are reported in the world aggregate and are separated from individual country and region balances.
Individual countries: ISO-3 codes.
EU: European Union with 27 Member States, excluding the United Kingdom.
Rest of Europe (REUR): Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iceland, Kosovo, Liechtenstein, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland.
Other CIS (RCIS): Other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Rep., Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
Rest of Latin America (RLAM): Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, NL Antilles and Aruba, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St Lucia, St Vincent and Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela.
Rest of Middle East (RMIEA): Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.
Rest South Asia (RSAS): Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka.
Rest Asia and Pacific (RASPAC): Brunei, Cambodia, Fiji Islands, Hong-Kong, Kiribati, Korea (PR), Lao PDR, Macau, Mongolia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa (Western), Singapore, Solomon Islands, Taiwan, Tonga, Vanuatu.
Rest North Africa (RNAFR): Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, Western Sahara.
Rest Sub-Saharan Africa (RSAF): Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Congo DR, Cote d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Primary Energy Demand: total energy demand, sum of Energy for Power Generation, Other Energy Transformation & Losses and Total Final Consumption. Country and regional balances exclude maritime and aviation bunkers (included in world balances) for primary fuels (oil and gas); country and regional balances include energy inputs into the production of secondary fuels for bunkers (hydrogen and e-fuels). Statistical differences are not included.
Energy for Power Generation: covers energy for electricity and heat production.
Other Energy Transformation & Losses: energy own use and losses of the energy transformation industry, excluding power and heat generation. Covers fossil fuel and uranium extraction, refining, transport and distribution (including gasworks); coal-, gas- and biomass-to-liquids production; hydrogen and other synthetic fuels production; coke ovens.
Total Final Consumption: sum of energy consumption in Industry, Buildings, Agriculture, Transport.
Industry: manufacturing industry, construction, mining; does not include energy transformation activities, includes non-energy uses of energy fuels. Consists of energy-intensive industries – Steel (iron and steel production; includes blast furnaces and coke final consumption), Non-Metallic Minerals and Chemicals (consumption for energy uses of chemicals and petrochemicals industry); Other Industry (energy uses in other manufacturing industry, construction, mining); and Non-Energy Use (non-energy uses of energy fuels in rubber and plastics and chemical feedstocks production).
Buildings: Residential and Services.
Agriculture: energy consumed in agriculture, forestry and fishing activities.
Transport: passenger and freight transport (including public transport and transport services); does not include transport of energy goods and related losses. Country and regional balances exclude maritime and aviation bunkers (included in world balances).
Share of renewables in primary energy: renewables in region's primary energy excluding international air and maritime bunkers).
Share of renewables in power generation: renewables in region's power production.
Share of renewables in final energy: renewables in region's gross final energy demand. Renewables include renewable electricity, renewable heat (solar, biomass district heating), renewable hydrogen (and synthetic methane from renewable hydrogen), solid biomass, liquid biofuels. Gross final energy demand excludes non-energy uses, includes transport and distribution losses, includes international air transport.
E-fuels: gaseous and liquid fuels produced using hydrogen and CO2 as raw materials and mostly electricity as energy input.
Total GHG: all anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions (CO2; CH4; N2O; F gases: SF6, HFCs, PFCs); cover the energy sector, industry, waste, agriculture.
Combustion: CO2 only related to energy combustion (excluding process emissions); sectoral emissions refer to the sectors definition of energy demand (see above).
Energy & Industry (excl. combustion): total GHG emissions excluding agriculture and CO2 from combustion.
Waste: CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions of urban waste (does not include agricultural waste management).
Agriculture: refers to non-combustion emissions of CH4 and N2O of agricultural, animal husbandry and fisheries activities.
Total air pollutant emissions: all anthropogenic emissions (does not include forest fires, peat fire and agricultural waste burning).
Emissions from the different greenhouse gases are converted into CO2-equivalent values, using the 100-year global warming potentials of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
cap: Capita
CCS: Carbon Capture and Sequestration
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GECO: Global Energy & Climate Outlook
GHG: Greenhouse Gases
INDC: Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
JRC: European Commission Joint Research Centre
toe tonnes of oil equivalent
Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent 1000 000 toe
GW gigawatts 1000 000 000 W
kWh kilowatt-hours 1000 Wh
MWh megawatt-hours 1000 000 Wh
TWh terawatt-hours 1000 000 000 000 Wh
$/boe $ per barrel of oil equivalent
t tonnes
Mt million tonnes 1000 000 t
tCO2 tonnes of CO2
MtCO2 million tonnes of CO2 1000 000 tCO2
tCO2e tonnes of CO2 equivalent
MtCO2e million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 1000 000 tCO2e
k$ thousand dollars 1 000 $
M$ million dollars 1 000 000 $
G$ billion dollars 1 000 000 000 $
Values are given in US dollars of 2005 in purchasing power parity (PPP).
| Series | Historical data | GECO projections | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | Europop (Eurostat, 2021), Lutz, Goujon, KC, Stonawski, & Stilianakis (2018) | ||
| GDP, growth | World Bank (2022), International Monetary Fund (2022) | European Commission (2022), OECD (2014) and OECD (2018) | |
| Other activity drivers | Value added | World Bank | POLES-JRC model |
| Mobility, vehicles, households, tonnes of steel.. | Sectoral databases | ||
| Energy resources | Oil, gas, coal | BGR, USGS, WEC, Rystad, sectoral information | |
| Uranium | IAEA/NEA OECD | ||
| Biomass | GLOBIOM model | ||
| Hydro | Enerdata | ||
| Wind, solar | NREL , DLR | ||
| Energy balances | Reserves, production | BP, Enerdata | |
| Demand by sector and fuel, transformation (including. power), losses | Enerdata, IEA | ||
| Power plants | Platts | ||
| Energy prices | International prices, prices to consumer | Enerdata, IEA | POLES-JRC model |
| GHG emissions | Energy CO2 | Derived from POLES-JRC energy balances | POLES-JRC model |
| Other GHG Annex 1 | UNFCCC | POLES-JRC model, GLOBIOM model | |
| Other GHG Non-Annex 1 (excl. LULUCF) | EDGAR | POLES-JRC model, GLOBIOM model | |
| LULUCF Non-Annex 1 | National inventories, FAO | POLES-JRC model, GLOBIOM model | |
| Air -pollutant emissions | GAINS model, EDGAR, IPCC, national sources | GAINS model, national sources | |
| Technology costs | POLES-JRC learning curves based on literature, including but not limited to: JRC, WEC, IEA Technology Roadmaps, TECHPOL database | ||