The following scenarios are presented in this document:
The Reference scenario corresponds to a world where currently existing policies for GHG emissions, renewables deployment and energy efficiency are carried out and where no additional policies are implemented compared to what had been legislated as of June 2019. Specific sectoral policies are considered for Europe as well as other regions (see main GECO report Annex 1 for list of policies considered). Thereafter, CO2 and other GHG emissions are driven by income growth, endogenously calculated energy prices and technological development. Nevertheless, market forces will favour greater efficiencies and greater learning for low-carbon technologies. This scenario, in particular, does not consider stated policies that have not been translated into law and accompanied by concrete action plans, nor does it consider the objectives put forward in countries’ NDCs; it does not attempt the deep structural decarbonisation process needed for a 2°C emissions trajectory.
The 2°C scenario assumes a global GHG trajectory consistent with a likely chance of meeting the long-term goal of a temperature rise over pre-industrial times below 2°C for 2100. The 2°C scenario was designed with a probability not to exceed its temperature change at the end of the century of 75%.
To achieve this, mitigation strategies should be massively and quickly adopted, leading to a drastic reduction of global GHG emissions. For each country and economic sector considered, the emissions reduction is reached through a progressively increasing carbon value starting from 2019, considering a carbon price differentiation between regions to account for each country’s financial capacity and response flexibility; countries’ carbon values progressively converge after 2030 depending on their per capita income. In addition, market acceptability factors for electric vehicles in road transport are increased, reflecting a faster and wider availability of recharching infrastructure. Only carbon prices were used as the main modelling tool; modelling parameters to reflect sector-specific policies in the Reference scenario were not included, for EU as well as for other regions (see main GECO report Annex 1).
The 1.5°C scenario was designed like the 2°C scenario, assuming a global GHG trajectory consistent with a likely chance of meeting the long-term goal of a temperature rise over pre-industrial times below 1.5°C for 2100. The 1.5°C scenario was designed with a probability not to exceed its temperature change at the end of the century of 66%.
The scenarios are produced with the same socio-economic assumptions and energy resources availability. Energy prices are the result of the interplay of energy supply and demand, and are thus scenario-dependent. Country- or region-level energy supply, trade, transformation and demand, as well as GHG emissions, are driven by income growth, energy prices and expected technological evolution, within the constraints defined by energy and climate policies. In sum, scenarios differ on the climate and energy policies that are included, with repercussions on the projections of the energy supply and demand system and GHG emissions.
| Europe | CIS | America | Africa | Middle East | Asia | Pacific OECD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU28 | Russia | Argentina | Egypt | Iran | China | Australia |
| Rest of Europe | Ukraine | Brazil | South Africa | Saudi Arabia | India | Japan |
| Rest CIS | Canada | Rest of North Africa | Turkey | Indonesia | Korea (Rep.) | |
| Chile | Rest Sub-saharan Africa | Rest Middle East | Malaysia | New Zealand | ||
| Mexico | Thailand | |||||
| USA | Vietnam | |||||
| Rest of Latin America | Rest of South Asia | |||||
| Rest of Asia and Pacific |
Energy consumption and related GHG emissions of international maritime and aviation bunkers are reported in the world aggregate and are separated from individual country and region balances.
Individual countries: ISO-3 codes.
EU28: European Union with 28 Member States as of December 2019, including the United Kingdom.
Rest of Europe (REUR): Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iceland, Kosovo, Liechtenstein, Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland.
Other CIS (RCIS): Other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Rep., Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
Rest of Latin America (RLAM): Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, NL Antilles and Aruba, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St Lucia, St Vincent and Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela.
Rest of Middle East (RMIEA): Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.
Rest South Asia (RSAS): Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka.
Rest Asia and Pacific (RASPAC): Brunei, Cambodia, Fiji Islands, Hong-Kong, Kiribati, Korea (PR), Lao PDR, Macau, Mongolia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa (Western), Singapore, Solomon Islands, Taiwan, Tonga, Vanuatu.
Rest North Africa (RNAFR): Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, Western Sahara.
Rest Sub-Saharan Africa (RSAF): Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Congo DR, Cote d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Primary Energy Demand: total energy demand, sum of Energy for Power Generation, Other Energy Transformation & Losses and Total Final Consumption. Country and regional balances exclude maritime and aviation bunkers (included in world balances) for primary fuels (oil and gas); country and regional balances include energy inputs into the production of secondary fuels for bunkers (hydrogen and e-fuels). Statistical differences are not included.
Energy for Power Generation: covers energy for electricity and heat production.
Other Energy Transformation & Losses: energy own use and losses of the energy transformation industry, excluding power and heat generation. Covers fossil fuel and uranium extraction, refining, transport and distribution (including gasworks); coal-, gas- and biomass-to-liquids production; hydrogen and other synthetic fuels production; coke ovens.
Total Final Consumption: sum of energy consumption in Industry, Buildings, Agriculture, Transport.
Industry: manufacturing industry, construction, mining; does not include energy transformation activities, includes non-energy uses of energy fuels. Consists of energy-intensive industries – Steel (iron and steel production; includes blast furnaces and coke final consumption), Non-Metallic Minerals and Chemicals (consumption for energy uses of chemicals and petrochemicals industry); Other Industry (energy uses in other manufacturing industry, construction, mining); and Non-Energy Use (non-energy uses of energy fuels in rubber and plastics and chemical feedstocks production).
Buildings: Residential and Services.
Agriculture: energy consumed in agriculture, forestry and fishing activities.
Transport: passenger and freight transport (including public transport and transport services); does not include transport of energy goods and related losses. Country and regional balances exclude maritime and aviation bunkers (included in world balances).
Share of renewables in primary energy: renewables in region's primary energy excluding international air and maritime bunkers).
Share of renewables in power generation: renewables in region's power production.
Share of renewables in final energy: renewables in region's gross final energy demand. Renewables include renewable electricity, renewable heat (solar, biomass district heating), renewable hydrogen (and synthetic methane from renewable hydrogen), solid biomass, liquid biofuels. Gross final energy demand excludes non-energy uses, includes transport and distribution losses, includes international air transport.
E-fuels: gaseous and liquid fuels produced using hydrogen and CO2 as raw materials and mostly electricity as energy input.
Total GHG: all anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions (CO2; CH4; N2O; F gases: SF6, HFCs, PFCs); cover the energy sector, industry, waste, agriculture, LULUCF.
Combustion: CO2 only related to energy combustion (excluding process emissions); sectoral emissions refer to the sectors definition of energy demand (see above).
Energy & Industry (excl. combustion): total GHG emissions excluding agriculture, LULUCF and CO2 from combustion.
Waste: CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions of urban waste (does not include agricultural waste management).
Agriculture: refers to non-combustion emissions of CH4 and N2O of agricultural, animal husbandry and fisheries activities.
LULUCF: CO2 emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (including sinks).
Total air pollutant emissions: all anthropogenic emissions (does not include forest fires, peat fire and agricultural waste burning).
Emissions from the different greenhouse gases are converted into CO2-equivalent values, using the 100-year global warming potentials of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
cap: Capita
CCS: Carbon Capture and Sequestration
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GECO: Global Energy & Climate Outlook
GHG: Greenhouse Gases
INDC: Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
JRC: European Commission Joint Research Centre
LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
toe tonnes of oil equivalent
Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent 1000 000 toe
GW gigawatts 1000 000 000 W
kWh kilowatt-hours 1000 Wh
MWh megawatt-hours 1000 000 Wh
TWh terawatt-hours 1000 000 000 000 Wh
$/boe $ per barrel of oil equivalent
t tonnes
Mt million tonnes 1000 000 t
tCO2 tonnes of CO2
MtCO2 million tonnes of CO2 1000 000 tCO2
tCO2e tonnes of CO2 equivalent
MtCO2e million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 1000 000 tCO2e
k$ thousand dollars 1 000 $
M$ million dollars 1 000 000 $
G$ billion dollars 1 000 000 000 $
Values are given in US dollars of 2005 in purchasing power parity (PPP).
| Series | Historical data | GECO projections | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | Europop (Eurostat, 2018) , Lutz, Goujon, KC, Stonawski, & Stilianakis (2018) | ||
| GDP, growth | World Bank (2019) , International Monetary Fund (2019) | European Commission (2018) , OECD (2014) and OECD (2018) | |
| Other activity drivers | Value added | World Bank | POLES-JRC model |
| Mobility, vehicles, households, tonnes of steel.. | Sectoral databases | ||
| Energy resources | Oil, gas, coal | BGR, USGS, WEC, Rystad, sectoral information | |
| Uranium | IAEA/NEA OECD | ||
| Biomass | GLOBIOM model | ||
| Hydro | Enerdata | ||
| Wind, solar | NREL , DLR | ||
| Energy balances | Reserves, production | BP, Enerdata | |
| Demand by sector and fuel, transformation (including. power), losses | Enerdata, IEA | ||
| Power plants | Platts | ||
| Energy prices | International prices, prices to consumer | Enerdata, IEA | POLES-JRC model |
| GHG emissions | Energy CO2 | Derived from POLES-JRC energy balances | POLES-JRC model |
| Other GHG Annex 1 | UNFCCC | POLES-JRC model, GLOBIOM model | |
| Other GHG Non-Annex 1 (excl. LULUCF) | EDGAR | POLES-JRC model, GLOBIOM model | |
| LULUCF Non-Annex 1 | National inventories, FAO | POLES-JRC model, GLOBIOM model | |
| Air -pollutant emissions | GAINS model, EDGAR, IPCC, national sources | GAINS model, national sources | |
| Technology costs | POLES-JRC learning curves based on literature, including but not limited to: JRC, WEC, IEA Technology Roadmaps, TECHPOL database | ||