Agricultural prices fell in the third quarter of 2023

EU agricultural prices for both outputs and inputs not related to investment declined in the third quarter of 2023, confirming the turnaround from strong price growth throughout 2021 and 2022. These latest data suggest a further settling down of global agricultural markets after a period of disruption.

The average price of agricultural products that farmers get at the farm gate declined by 9% in the third quarter of 2023 compared with the same quarter of 2022. There was also an acceleration in the rate of decline in the price of agricultural inputs not related to investment from -5% in the second quarter of 2023 to -11% in the third quarter.

Source datasets: apri_pi15_outq and apri_pi15_inq

Agricultural output price rises peaked in the third quarter of 2022 (+30% compared with the same quarter of 2021). There was then a marked slowdown in price rises until the decline in the third quarter of 2023: +26% in the fourth quarter of 2022, +17% in the first quarter of 2023 and +2% in the second quarter of this year. 

The overall decline in the price of agricultural outputs in the third quarter of 2023 reflected stark contrasts between individual products. The average price of cereals declined by about one third (-32%, within which there were strong falls for rye and meslin, wheat and spelt, and barley among others). The price of milk was also down sharply (-15%), and there were more moderate declines for fruit (-5%) and poultry (-3%) among other products.

By contrast, there were also some sharp price increases in the third quarter of 2023: the steepest rise was for olive oil (+73% compared with the same quarter of 2022), followed by vegetable materials used for plaiting (+50%), potatoes (other potatoes +48%, potatoes including seeds and potatoes for consumption, both +30%), and sugar beet (+44%). 

Among the inputs not related to investment, the sharpest rates of price decline were for fertilisers and soil improvers (-36%), energy and lubricants (-18%), and animal feedingstuffs (-12%).

Quarterly prices down in 21 EU countries

At the national level, most of the EU countries (21 out of 27) registered a decrease in farm gate prices for agricultural products as a whole in the third quarter of 2023 compared with the same quarter of 2022. The sharpest price declines were recorded in countries with a high specialisation in cereals and/or milk, i.e. Bulgaria (-28%), Hungary (-26%), Lithuania and Latvia (both -24%) and Slovakia (-20%). By contrast, prices increased in 6 Southern countries: Greece (+22%), Cyprus (+11%), Portugal (8%), Spain and Malta (both +5%) and Italy (+1%). One of the factors behind these headline rises was the sharp increase in the price of olive oil, including +103% in Spain, +101% in Greece, +99% in Portugal, +31% in Italy.

Source dataset: apri_pi15_outq and apri_pi15_inq

Regarding inputs not related to investment, the sharpest rates of decrease in prices compared with the third quarter of 2022 were reported in Lithuania (-27%) and the Netherlands (-26%). Malta was the only EU country that registered an increase (+1%).