EUROPOP2023 are the latest Eurostat long-term population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway and Switerland), covering the time horizon from 2022 to 2100. Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and its structure based on a sets of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration; they are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).
The datasets are composed by the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, namely:
- no migration – it is assumed that the net migration is zero in each year of the 2023-2100 time horizon;
- lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is lower due to 33% decrease applied to the non-EU immigration flows, in each year of the 2023-2100 time horizon;
- higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is higher due to 33% increase applied to the non-EU immigration flows, in each year of the 2023-2100 time horizon;
- lower fertility - it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the 2023-2100 time horizon;
- lower mortality - it is assumed that the mortality rates are lower such that the life expectancy at birth will increase of about two years by 2070 when compared with the baseline assumptions.
In each sensitivitiy test, the assumptions for the year 2022 were kept as in the baseline projections, as for this year there is a mix of observed data (i.e. beneficiaries on temporary protections at the end of December 2022), information from the national authorities and forecasting.
Data are available by single year time interval, as follows:
- Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
- Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and net migration levels;
- Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.
Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the five sensitive variants:
- Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
- Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).
STP2024 are the latest short-term projections population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway and Switerland), covering the time horizon from 2023 to 2050. Similar to long-term projections, they are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and its structure based on a sets of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website, as of 06 September 2024, were used as input in building the assumptions including thus the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to temporary protection of persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.
The dataset includes data by single year time interval for two type of projections as follows:
- Baseline projections:
- Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
- Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
- Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.
- No migration sensitivity test - it is assumed that the net migration is zero in each year of the 2024-2050 time horizon;
- Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
- 2023 net migration levels are the same as in the baseline projections, reflecting the nowcast data;
- Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.
EUROPOP2023
Base population on 1 January 2022 is the population of the country as reported in the annual demographic statistics data collection run by Eurostat.
The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between ages x and x+1, over one calendar year.
The age-specific mortality rate (ASMR) for a given population, a given age, and a given year, refers to the number of deaths in that year to people of that age for every 1000 people of that age.
The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is derived from the life expectancy as from the period-cohort life table by applying an estimated age-specific gap between these two measures of life expectancy. The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is provided for the convenience of the users, but it is not the outcome of a regular computation of a life table and it represent only an approximated measure of a life expectancy computed on age-period mortality data.
Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.
Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is the number of - respectively - children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), two age groups for persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years ), elderly (65 years and over) and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) in the total population.
Young-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age groups used to classify the persons as 'young' and in the 'working-age':
1) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-14 over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);
2) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-19 over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);
Old-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age group used to define the persons in the 'working-age':
1) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);
2) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);
Total age-dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young- and old- age dependency ratios, based on the common age group used to define the persons in the 'working age'.
STP2024
Base population on 1 January 2023 is the total population of the country as reported to Eurostat by the national statistical authorities in the latest annual demographic POPSTAT data collection.
Population in the working-age is defined as the population of the country in the age group 15-74 years old.
Proportion of population in the working-age is defined as the ratio between the population in the working age group 15-74 years old and the total population, expressed as percentage.
Total fertility rate is defined as the average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the fertility assumptions of a given year, and if they were not subject to mortality.
Life expectancy at birth is the mean number of years a newborn child is assumed to live if subjected throughout his or her life to the mortality assumptions.
The statistical unit varies according to the data type as follows:
- Person - for data referring to the projected population and net migration;
- Number of demographic events - for data referring to the projected number of live births and deaths;
Statistical population is the projected total population on 1 January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.
EU Members States and EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
EUROPOP2023: the time period covered is from 2022 to 2100.
STP2024: the time period covered is from 2023 to 2050.
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The specific measurement units vary depending on the population projections tables as follows:
- Person - for all data on projected population and migration;
- Number - for data on vital events (live births and deaths); and
- Year - for data on life expectancy and median age.
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Eurostat database.
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