Roel Beetsma (University of Amsterdam, CEPR and CESifo) and Heikki Oksanen (European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs)
(European Economy. Economic Papers. 289. October 2007.
Brussels. 66pp. Tab. Free.)
KC-AI-07-289-EN-N ISBN: 978-92-79-04642-1 ISSN: 1016-8060
This paper explores how the Stability and Growth Pact may cope with the future costs of population ageing in the European Union. Clearly, population ageing has forced countries to reform their pension systems, and will continue to do so, both by reducing the generosity of pension arrangements and by switching to funding rather than relying on pure pay-as-you go pension provision. We study how such reforms affect the room for adhering to the Pact, but also how the Pact may induce or hamper the incentives for reform. In our analysis we will draw on recent literature on the Pact and on the pensions and the ageing problem. We will also calibrate a simple model for addressing intergenerational equity.
Keywords: Public pensions, population ageing, government budget deficit and debt, European Union Stability and Growth Pact.
JEL classification: H11, H55, H6