Lars Jonung (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs)
Three major conclusions emerge from the analysis of the exit poll surveys gathered on the day of the referendum.
First, the optimum currency area theory proves to be a constructive framework to predict voting behaviour across socio-economic groups and regions in Sweden, assuming voters behave in their self-interest.
Second, the distribution of the expected benefits and costs across groups was a major determinant of their voting behaviour. As predicted by theory, the Yes-vote was strongest among voters employed in the tradable sector, in high growth regions as well as among high-income earners and well educated. The No-vote was strongest among voters employed in the non-tradable sector, in particular in the public sector, and among low-income earners, the unemployed and the less educated – in short, among groups dependent on public-sector transfers to maintain their living standards in the event of adverse economic shocks.
Third, political attitudes towards the European integration process heavily influenced the views of the voters towards the euro.
(European Economy. Economic Papers. 205. June 2004.
Brussels. 32pp. Tab. Free.)