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A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area - Pilar Bengoechea (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs) and Gabriel Pérez Quirós

Pilar Bengoechea (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs) and Gabriel Pérez Quirós (Bank of Spain)

A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area - Pilar Bengoechea (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs) and Gabriel Pérez Quiróspdf(467 kB) Choose translations of the previous link 

This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provide timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy.

In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.

(European Economy. Economic Papers. 215. October 2004. Brussels. 26pp. Tab. Free.)

KC-AI-04-215-EN-C (online)
ISBN 92-894-8125-0 (online)
ISSN 1725-3187

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