Welcome to the second newsletter of the European Political Strategy Centre, which focuses on foresight and global trends.
Much of our work in this area is done in the context of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, or ESPAS. It is a one-of-its-kind collaboration between the main European institutions, devoted to medium- and long-term trends facing or relating to the European Union.
We are currently in a three-year work programme, built around key themes laid out in the ESPAS Report on Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU Meet with Challenges Ahead? While in 2015 we zeroed in on the Global Economic and Technological Revolution, this year is devoted to Global Trends to 2030: Society and Governance.
By definition, tomorrow’s challenges will have to be met by tomorrow’s leaders. That is why I am delighted that an integral part of the current ESPAS cycle includes a Young Talent Network of junior officials from the participating European institutions.
In other news – and against the backdrop of recent events – we just kicked off the ESPAS Strategic Dialogue on Future Challenges to European Security.
Along with my colleagues, I hope you will enjoy this newsletter and also choose to follow us @ECThinkTank.
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We have launched a new ESPAS initiative to explore future challenges to European security.
The inaugural event focused on ‘Uses and Abuses of the Internet: Fighting Radicalisation and Terrorism’. Concern about cyber warfare targeting critical infrastructure and ‘cyber Jihad’ has intensified. Baroness Joanna Shields, UK Minister for Internet Safety and Security spoke about a one-of-a-kind campaign to fight radicalisation via the Internet that she is spearheading.
Our second event was on ‘Islamic State: The Threat in Europe’. Peter Neumann, Professor of Security Studies at King’s College London and Head of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence and Dr Shiraz Maher, Senior Fellow, spoke on the recruitment of foreign fighters and Daesh support networks within Europe.
We also hosted Patrick Ky, Executive Director of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) to discuss the manifold security challenges in the field of aviation, with a special focus on cyber security.
The EPSC welcomed a group of experts from the Atlantic Future for a policy briefing on their project which has focused on the emergence of a wider Atlantic space beyond traditional North Atlantic ties and North-South dependencies. Scenarios for the Atlantic in 2025 were proposed and the Atlas of the Atlantic was presented: an interactive tool that links 100 key indicators tracking political, security, economic, environmental and energy connections binding the peoples of the Atlantic Space.
The EPSC and a group of experts from Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs) came together to discuss security and migration. The SWP presented their 2016 landmark foresight study: Unexpected, Unforeseen, Unplanned: Scenarios of International Foreign and Security Policy.
The EPSC hosted a Policy Briefing on the ′Future of Europe: Competitiveness, People and Governance Opportunities ′ with Professor Ian Goldin, the founding Director of the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford and Professor of Globalisation and Development. The event concentrated on the key drivers of global change, notably demographic, economic and technological changes, and specifically on the implications for Europe.
The EPSC hosted a briefing with NATO’s Strategic Foresight Analysis Team in the framework of ESPAS. NATO colleagues presented the Strategic Foresight Analysis 2015 Update Report and shared their foresight practices and methods. The presentation was followed by an in-depth discussion on existing and emerging trends and ideas.
Source: Yearbook of European Security 2013.
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"So what is it that elevates forecasting to superforecasting? As with the experts who had real foresight in my earlier research, what matters most is how the forecaster thinks. I'll describe this in detail, but broadly speaking, superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and – above all – self-critical. It also demands focus. The kind of thinking that produces superior judgement does not come effortlessly. Only the determined can deliver it reasonably consistently, which is why our analyses have consistently found commitment to self-improvement to be the strongest predictor of performance." From Chapter One - An Optimistic Skeptic
"(…) 21st century governance requires governments to assume ‘stewardship of the future’. To evolve into this new role, governments must not only build the institutional capacity to undertake strategic foresight, but also develop behavioural capability to habitually consider the longer-term. The effective implementation of SGDs will require the deployment of strategic foresight, as it forces governments to plan for the future using probable problems and prospects from the future, as opposed to prepare for the future on the basis of the present." From the Foreword
"To thrive, Singapore needs every advantage we can muster as a small country in a complex environment. Understanding how the world around us can change gives us the latitude to prepare, to take advantage of the opportunities that may arise, as well as to make contingency plans to mitigate possible threats to our well-being. As our foresight efforts mature, we are learning to apply a wide range of foresight tools and methods to policy, and have developed a working understanding of how foresight and an appreciation of complexity can help us think about the future better. With the growing futures community in the Government, we now also have better mechanisms to derive whole-of-government insights into complex issues, and translate foresight to strategy. This foresight glossary is a guide to the concepts and terms commonly used in the Singapore Government foresight space." From the Foreword
"At least three major trends are destabilising the status quo in Europe’s knowledge system. Globalisation is one. As the world gets more inter-connected, and economic competition expands, the way we learn, discover or innovate will change, and the impact will hit home faster and harder. Demographic change is another. The move to cities, the ageing population, the shifts in family size and social norms – all will alter what we expect and can do in education, research and innovation. And technological change is accelerating. Just 35 years ago came text editors. Now: gene editing. By 2050, what next? Each invention, coming faster and faster, changes not only our society and economy, but also our expectations and the way we work in education, science and business." From the Summary and Policy Recomendations
"More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. Africa has the highest rate of population growth among major areas, growing at a pace of 2.55 per cent annually in 2010-2015 (…). Consequently, of the additional 2.4 billion people projected to be added to the global population between 2015 and 2050, 1.3 billion will be added in Africa. Asia is projected to be the second largest contributor to future global population growth, adding 0.9 billion people between 2015 and 2050, followed by Northern America, Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania, which are projected to have much smaller increments. In the medium variant, Europe is projected to have a smaller population in 2050 than in 2015." From the Summary and Key Findings
"We first wrote about the G-Zero five years ago. It’s now fully upon us, and the unwinding of the US-led geopolitical order will accelerate in 2016. There is growing political division in a year with a presidential election in the United States and a foundational political crisis for Europe. Russia, in decline, is led by an increasingly combative—and resurgent—Vladimir Putin. China is becoming far more powerful, but with a foreign policy that reflects primarily economic (though still strategic) national interests." From the Overview
"The crisis in relations between Russia and the West from 2013 to 2015 shows that economic interests and cooperation in international security are not sufficient to prevent conflict based on political, geopolitical, and ideological ambition. The East-West situation differs considerably from that of the second half of the Cold War era (mid-1960s to mid-1980s), when tacit “untouchable” geopolitical spheres of influence were clearly delineated, and other zones were not worth the risk of a direct military conflict. The situation from 2015 through 2035 will be far different from the first twenty-five years following the end of the Cold War—a time when the big powers avoided serious differences, often because Russia and China acquiesced to Western leadership.
The worst outcome would be the emergence of a new bipolarity, pitting a group of states centred around China and Russia against the United States and some European and Asian allies. A somewhat less dangerous outcome would be a global breakup into regional blocs and spheres of influence, in which the potential for ad hoc global cooperation would still exist." From the Foreword
"The European Union seems to be moving from one emergency to the next. Europe’s leaders are in crisis-fighting mode: reactive, improvising, often uncoordinated – but ultimately modestly successful. The Eurozone has not splintered; Russia is smarting under Western sanctions; some burden-sharing on refugees has been agreed. Busy with short-term problems, however, Europeans have taken their eyes off more profound, long-term challenges. How the European Union copes with its immediate problems in the next couple of years will determine how the continent will fare in decades to come.
Current crises, however, could also be an opportunity to imbue Europe with a new narrative. If
European countries are working well together to tackle slow growth, refugee challenges and external threats, the EU would no longer be seen as a lofty and distant political ideal but as an effective, if sometimes irksome, crisis-fighting mechanism."
"We first wrote about the G-Zero five years ago. It’s now fully upon us, and the unwinding of the US-led geopolitical order will accelerate in 2016. There is growing political division in a year with a presidential election in the United States and a foundational political crisis for Europe. Russia, in decline, is led by an increasingly combative—and resurgent—Vladimir Putin. China is becoming far more powerful, but with a foreign policy that reflects primarily economic (though still strategic) national interests." From the Overview
Joan Moh
Enrico Giovannini EPSC