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EC economic analysis about the UK: progress in housing and infrastructure, but uncertainties lie ahead
UK economic growth remained robust in 2016 – driven by expanding domestic demand and employment – but is expected to be weaker in 2017 and 2018. This is one of the conclusions in the European Commission's annual assessment of the UK, in turn part of the annual analysis of the economic and social situation in the member states. It follows the economic forecast – an analysis of indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, employment and public finances – released last week.
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Brexit: The reality principle and the pleasure principle
Chatham House hosted Herman van Rompuy, former European Council President for a talk on the realities that both Britain and the EU face over the coming months and years when they will be negotiating Brexit. He said that the UK government needs to acknowledge that Brexit is not a top priority for the EU and that Donald Trump's election is causing a lot more uncertainty. Mr van Rompuy listed among the EU's priorities jobs and the refugee crisis. He also argued that the negotiations need to first be on a separation agreement. In his opinion, during these same negotiations – and not in parallel – it would be possible to explore, but not negotiate on the content of a free trade agreement. Mr van Rompuy believes that the two year period will not suffice for an agreement and therefore the UK and the EU need a transitional arrangement. He defined this transitional arrangement as a phasing out from EU membership rather than a phasing-in to a yet non-existing free trade agreement. He also said there is no such thing as soft negotiations, especially not on a hard Brexit.
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Brexit – The security dimension
On 20 February, Dr Charles Tannock, MEP presented his new report – Brexit: The security dimension – which addresses the impacts of Brexit on internal and external security issues and defence policy. Dr Tannock argued that the UK must seek to retain both formal and informal influence over all aspects of EU defence and security policy (including development) and should maximise operational cooperation under EU programmes and with EU agencies. He added that in return, the UK should offer to contribute substantially, both financially and through deploying its various capabilities in the fields concerned.
£184 million EIB backing for Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund
On 22 February, the British Business Bank announced its £400m Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund (NPIF), which will boost the North of England’s economy and help the region’s businesses realise their growth potential. The European Investment Bank will invest £184 million in the new Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund.
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