ECFIN E-news 246 - Autumn 2021 Economic Forecast: From recovery to expansion, amid headwinds
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  11/11/2021  
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ECFIN E-news 246

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Annual Research Conference 2021

Remember to register for the upcoming Annual Research Conference, taking place on 15 November 2021

Top story
Autumn 2021 Economic Forecast: From recovery to expansion, amid headwinds
Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, holds a press conference on the Autumn Economic Forecast. ©European Union

The EU economy is rebounding from the pandemic recession faster than expected. As vaccination campaigns progressed and restrictions started to be lifted, growth resumed in spring and continued unabated through summer, underpinned by the re-opening of the economy.

Despite mounting headwinds, the EUeconomy is projected to keep expanding over the forecast horizon, achieving a growth rate of 5%, 4.3% and 2.5% in 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively. Growth rates for the euro area are projected to be identical to those for the EU in 2021 and 2022, and 2.4% in 2023. This outlook depends heavily on two factors: the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and the pace at which supply adjusts to the rapid turnaround in demand following the re-opening of the economy.

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Eurogroup reviews macro-economic developments and policy prospects in the euro area, including energy prices and inflation
Roundtable at the Eurogroup meeting on 8 November, ©European Union

Meeting on 8 November, the Eurogroup discussed macro-economic developments and policy prospects in the euro area.

Ministers took stock of and exchanged views on energy prices and inflation developments within the euro area ahead of the Commission’s autumn forecast. The Eurogroup also discussed policy objectives and the uses of the digital euro in the context of the fast pace of digitalisation in the global economy, as well as its impact on the euro area and the common currency. Ministers took stock of related initiatives and developments at the international level. Paschal Donohoe, President of the Eurogroup, briefed ministers on the international meetings he attended in October (G7 and World Bank and IMF annual meetings). Meeting in inclusive format, ministers listened to a Commission presentation on the relaunched economic governance review, with a focus on the euro area dimension. They discussed the process through which Eurogroup (and Eurogroup in the inclusive format for relevant items) meetings will evaluate the governance review and held an initial discussion on how the Eurogroup could address challenges to the coordination of fiscal and economic policies within the euro area, as well as to the functioning of EMU in a post-COVID economic environment. The Eurogroup was briefed by the institutions on the main results of the bi-annual monitoring report on risk reduction indicators. Ministers also took stock of the preparations for the introduction of the common backstop to the Single Resolution Fund, as agreed in November 2020.

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EU economy and finance ministers exchange views on EU economy, economic governance, and financing of Next Generation EU
Valdis DOMBROVSKIS (Executive Vice-President of the European Commission), Andrej SIRCELJ (Minister for Finance, Slovenia) at the Press Conference of Economic and Financial Affairs Council on 9 November 2021, ©European Union

At an ECOFIN meeting on 9 November, EU economy and finance ministers exchanged views on the EU economy following the COVID-19 pandemic, and on the implications of recent developments for economic governance.

The way forward on economic governance will be discussed further until a broad consensus is reached. Ministers also discussed the current situation regarding the financing of Next Generation EU and the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. In addition, ministers approved conclusions on the future of the European Semester in relation to the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The conclusions call for the return of the essential elements of the European Semester in the 2022 cycle, in particular country reports and country-specific recommendations. The EU economy and finance ministers also discussed the recent steep increase in energy and consumer prices and their policy implications. After a presentation by the Commission, ministers debated a set of legislative proposals aimed at implementing the outstanding Basel III agreements. They received information from the Slovenian presidency on current financial services legislative proposals, and from the Slovenian presidency and the Commission on recent meetings of the IMF and G20 finance ministers and central bank governors. Lastly, the European Court of Auditors presented its annual report on the implementation of the EU budget for the 2020 financial year.

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EU disburses €90 million in Macro-Financial Assistance to Albania to address the economic fallout from the pandemic
Macro-Financial Assistance package, Albania, €90 million out of €180 million, ©European Union

The European Commission, on behalf of the EU, disbursed €90 million in Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) to Albania on 5 November.

The disbursement is the second and last tranche of a €180 million support programme to Albania, which is part of the €3 billion emergency MFA package for ten enlargement and neighbourhood partners that aims to help them limit the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The programme is a concrete demonstration of the EU's solidarity with its partners as it helps them to respond to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The first €90 million disbursement to Albania under this MFA programme took place in March 2021. Albania has fulfilled the policy conditions agreed with the EU for the release of this second and final €90 million disbursement under the COVID-19 MFA programme. These included important measures to strengthen public finance and the resilience of the financial sector, improve governance and fight corruption, and enhance social protection. In addition, Albania continues to satisfy the pre-conditions for the granting of MFA as regards the respect of human rights and effective democratic mechanisms, including a multi-party parliamentary system and the rule of law. With this disbursement, the EU has completed eight out of the ten MFA programmes in the €3 billion COVID-19 MFA package and disbursed the first tranches to all partners.

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Publications
Green Budgeting: Towards Common Principles
Green Budgeting: Towards Common Principles ©European Union

This paper presents common elements of green budgeting, main underlying principles. It reviews the different tools and provides examples from the EU Member States. It is joint work of the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

 
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Disaster Risk Financing: Main Concepts and Evidence from EU Member States
Disaster Risk Financing: Main Concepts and Evidence from EU Member States ©European Union

This paper presents the theoretical approach to disaster risk financing and provides evidence from the EU and the EU Member States.

 
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EU Candidate Countries’ & Potential Candidates’ Economic Quarterly (CCEQ) – 3rd Quarter 2021
EU Candidate Countries’ & Potential Candidates’ Economic Quarterly (CCEQ) – 3rd Quarter 2021 ©European Union

An overview of economic developments in candidate and pre-candidate countries.

 
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Selected speeches

09/11/2021

Remarks by Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis at the ECOFIN press conference
 
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Classifieds
EU Survey: Public debate on the review of the EU economic governance
 
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