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Short rains put season’s production at risk in East Africa and cause early main-season dryness in Southern Africa. Good start for winter cereals across North Africa, Middle East and Central Asia

ASAP hotspot assessment of 30.11.2018
Dec 03 2018

The November edition of the JRC's Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment shows below-average crop and rangelands performance due to rainfall deficits in East Africa and signs of early main-season dryness in many countries in Southern Africa. The winter cereals season has had a generally good start in North Africa, in the Middle East and in Central Asia.

Main findings of the November global overview:

  • The short rainy season in the bi-seasonal cropping areas of East Africa is clearly resulting in drought impact in most of southern Somalia, south-east Ethiopia and several parts of Kenya. As it is close to the end of the rainy season, full recovery for these areas would be difficult.
  • Southern Africa has also been affected by dryness during the month of November, which marks the start of the main crop season. Here, there is still room for recovery, assuming good rainfall in the coming weeks.
  • West Africa experienced a highly productive main season thanks to good rainfall across the region. Production limitations are mainly linked to floods (e.g. in Nigeria), localized dryness (mainly in Mauritania and localized areas in Senegal) and insecurity in Nigeria and in the Lake Chad basin.
  • In Yemen, the humanitarian crisis is mainly caused by problems with imports and national currency depreciation, linked to the conflict, but rainfed sorghum and millet crop performance are also mixed, with localized areas clearly underperforming, as a result of droughts.
  • Winter cereals planted in October and November in North African countries, the Middle East and Central Asia generally show a timely start and good early-season conditions.
  • In Central America and the Caribbean, and in particular in Haiti, after favorable October rainfall, crop conditions have slightly deteriorated as a result of below-average rainfall in November.

The next assessment is scheduled for early January 2019.

Further information

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