How are jobs affected when demand for a product or service changes?
The JRC has released an online calculator that simulates the effects on employment of changes in exports (as a proxy for demand).
EU SAM jobs – an interactive tool based on EU Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) – calculates the number of jobs that would be generated or lost due to an exogenous shock in the export of selected commodities. The jobs generated are the sum of direct, indirect and induced effects.
The shock can be introduced in two ways:
- As a percentage increase/decrease in the initial value of final demand.
- As an increase/decrease in the absolute value (EUR million) of final demand.
Shocks can be introduced in several sectors at the same time. The results show both the variation in jobs for each of the sectors of activity concerned and the aggregate variation (total jobs, jobs in the main productive sector of the commodity, jobs in other sectors).
As the results are based on several assumptions, including constant prices and fixed technology production, and do not account for variations or changes in other socio-economic variables, they are only an indicator of which commodities have the highest employment potential and in which sectors, and should not be interpreted as an accurate forecast of job creation.
The tool was developed in cooperation with DG AGRI and DG RTD and is publicly available.
Policymakers, academics, industry, and general stakeholders may benefit from the simulations of this calculator, for example in free trade agreement negotiations, by assessing the impact on employment of changes in trade arrangements.
This tool received a very positive reception, particularly from colleagues of the Directorate-General for Agriculture, when it was presented to the public on 9 April 2019 in the context of an event of the Civil Dialogue Group on international aspects of agriculture.