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Insecurity, desert locusts and impact of COVID-19 remain main threats to otherwise good agricultural season

ASAP hotspot assessment July 2020
Aug 06 2020

The July edition of the JRC's Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment is now available at:

Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment

Main findings of the July global overview:

  • The main cereal season has been completed in the Southern Africa region, and aggregate cereal production is estimated at 18% above the 5-year average. Production shortfalls are expected in Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique and southern Madagascar.
  • In East Africa, good rains have generally favoured good crop conditions. Floods and decreased planted area, due to COVID-19 restrictions and fear of desert locusts, have resulted in below-average gu and belg harvests in Somalia and Ethiopia, respectively. Operations to control the desert locust invasion have been successful, but it still poses a threat to unimodal areas (e.g. Sudan) and possibly meher season areas in Ethiopia.
  • In West and Central Africa, agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable. However, insecurity and COVID-19 measures are having negative repercussions on agricultural activities.
  • In North Africa, below-average yields reflect the drought conditions that affected parts of the region. In Morocco, barley and wheat production is forecast significantly below the 5-year average. Central parts of Tunisia are also expecting below-average yields, whereas Algeria expects close-to-average national yields.
  • In the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia, production prospects for winter wheat are generally positive. In Yemen, although agro-climatic conditions are good, conflict, socio-economic factors and desert locusts have resulted in increased food insecurity. In Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, conditions are favourable for Aman rice and second (yala) rice.
  • In South-East Asia, wet season rice growth appears to be delayed in many parts of continental south-east Asia, due to below-average rainfall in the last three to six months. In Indonesia, harvests of wet season rice are completed with production expected to be below-average due to reduced planted area, while maize production is forecast above average.
  • In Central America, the primera season is ongoing under favourable conditions. In Haiti, spring season production is forecast at below-average levels.

The next assessment is scheduled for early September 2020.